FanDuel MLB Daily Picks and Pivots – June 22
Welcome to the Thursday FanDuel MLB edition of Picks and Pivots, a fantasy baseball column focused on helping you find the best core lineup for today’s Early and Main slate which kicks off at 1:05 PM and 7:05 PM EST!
For those of you finding us for the first time, the concept behind FanDuel MLB Picks and Pivots is to first identify key building blocks that can be used for any roster construction and then identify pivot points to help differentiate your lineup in hopes of a big payday!
Wednesday’s Main winning GPP scores were right above our season average as it took 273.5 FanDuel points to take down a tournament! Over the first 85 slates of the FanDuel MLB season, the average winning score to take down a GPP has been 263.2 points. Looking back at last season, the winning GPP lineup on average scored 255 FanDuel points with a typical roster build that allocated 25% of your salary cap to your SP and the remaining 75% to your hitters.
Over the first 85 slates of the FanDuel MLB season, the average winning score to take down a GPP has been 263.2 points.
Wednesday Night’s winning GPP scores were truly a mixed bag as across contests there were a variety of avenues and paths to roster construction that were successful. The starting pitching on the Main Slate was not overly enticing but we had arms like Jose Berrios (52 FD points), Taijuan Walker (43 FD points) and Rich Hill (42 FD points) all putting up solid scores while allowing their bats to do the heavy lifting. The Arizona bats were the most consistent theme across the winning GPP lines as they broke out for 16 runs in Coors Field and mixed in with big nights from one-offs like Tommy Pham and Martin Maldonado, you were able to take home some big time wins!
Each day we will break down our top Starting Pitcher and our top hitting stacks of the day while giving you our thoughts on roster build and lineup construction.
As always, we will look to update our picks and final lineup thought prior to lock on our twitter account @FantasyCPR so make sure to give us a follow for all the late breaking lineup news.
Without further ado, let’s get into today’s slate!
FanDuel MLB: Starting Pitcher Picks:
Normally when I break down these dual FanDuel MLB slates I will break up the slides into the Early and Main slate but as I went through each of these 6 game slates I noticed how similar they were and felt it made sense to overlap the picks as I laid out my roster build thoughts!
For those of you who are familiar with Picks and Pivots you know we are not simply a “best plays” column, but rather what we do here is give you more overall slate strategy and weave our picks into that context! Each day it is important to look at the slate as a whole before you start picking players and sometimes it is important to take what the slate gives us on that particular day.
Yesterday’s DFS action was a perfect example of two slates that almost made your starting pitcher decision for you. The early slate was Max Scherzer/everyone else and although Max was 50% owned in GPP’s, it essentially meant that half the field made a mistake as we watched Mad Max simply mow down hitters, rack up strikeouts and make it nearly impossible for the rest of the field to catch up! On the Main Slate the pitching was a mess and really you could have made the case for almost any arm so it made sense to take chances (like we did with Taijuan Walker) as the opportunity cost at SP was lower than it normally is.
Why do I bring this up? Today’s slate does not have many (if any) true aces but there are clear-cut options that in the context of the slate make all the sense in the world to load up on!
Carlos Martinez ($10,400) EARLY: Two starts ago, Carlos Martinez faced the same Philadelphia team he will take on today and proceeded to strike out 11 batters in 8 innings and drop 70 FanDuel points and today we somehow only have to pay $10.4K for him. Although it would be naive to expect another 70 point performance, Martinez is the clear-cut top arm on this slate with a 28.5% K rate which is 5% higher than any other starter on the Early slate and has double-digit swinging strike rates in four of his last five starts.
Martinez’s ability to dominate with a 50%+ ground ball rate (53% to right-handed bats) allows him to limit hard contact when the ball is put in play and combined with his strikeout ability makes him a no-brainer play for me on the early slate when you consider the other options on the slate.
As I mentioned, no pitcher has a K rate within 5% of C-Mart on this slate and the “next best option” price wise in Chase Anderson with his 2.92 ERA has a 4.32 xFIP, in line with his career numbers and 4+ ERA which means regression is coming and I do not want to drop down for immaterial cost savings if these are my secondary plays.
Luis Severino ($9,800) MAIN: Wow Brian, you are taking the two most expensive pitchers on the board – bold strategy Cotton let’s see how it plays out. The reason I gave you the context at the start of this section is that sometimes you simply need to take what the slate gives you and rather than just list off the two top priced arms as “my plays” I thought it was critical for you to understand why it makes sense to go that route.
Severino stands head and shoulders above the rest of the options on this slate as he has a 27.7% K rate, 11.7% swinging strike rate and 54% ground ball rate all while being a massive -230 favorite at home versus the Angels.
Again put this slate in context – there are no value arms with high K rates we can “take chances on” and really at only $9.8K for Severino we are still able to fit in whatever high-priced bats we want so what is the value of actually dropping down?
Severino has 50+ FanDuel points in three of his last five starts flashing the kind of upside that will win you a GPP when he is on! The secondary options like Jake Arrieta (who has not gone more than 4.2 IP in his last two starts) or Steven Matz against the red-hot Dodgers are just not saving me enough money where it is worth pivoting off Severino in my opinion.
Sometimes we simply need to step back and take what the slate will give us and if I can lock in the two best arms for right around $10k per pitcher and still have the salary to get the bats I want then I will happily eat the chalk and let the rest of the field get cute/be wrong.
FanDuel MLB – Top Hitting Stacks
Chicago White Sox (EARLY): I am not sure honestly that I have written up the White Sox bats as my top stack in any slate this season and they tend to be a team that is over-looked as the “name bats” in the line-up are far less sexy than most other top stacks each day. Today however White Sox have a 5+ projected run total against LHP Nik Turley, who has given up 17 hits and 12 ER in just over 8 innings of work this season (FYI that’s not good).
Turley’s sample size is small but he is giving up over 42% hard contact this year to right-handed bats so we can look to the power bats in the White Sox line-up Jose Abreu ($3,800), Todd Frazier ($3,300) and Avisail Garcia ($3,600) combined with Tim Anderson ($2,900) to form a cost effective likely over-looked 1-4 stack.
I would expect on the early slate ALL the talk will be about Coors Field and loading up on those hitters but frankly I think this is the perfect spot to fade that game. Arizona is going to be VERY popular after this 16 run outburst last night and keep in mind that Rockies starter Antonio Senzatela has a 51% GB rate at home while limiting hard contact to under 30%. The Rockies meanwhile will take on Zack Godley, a pitcher with a 61% ground ball rate who only allows 30% hard contact on the year so to me this is a great spot to avoid Coors Field and let the masses overload on a game with two under-rated elite ground ball inducing arms!
Oakland A’s (EARLY): The other stack I like on the early slate is the A’s as they face off with David Paulino who is giving up 40.6% hard contact and 2.4 HR/9 this season to right-handed bats. Like the White Sox, the A’s will likely be completely ignored with the Coors field attention so I love the idea of paying up for Khris Davis ($3,900) and pairing him with cheap top of the order options like Jed Lowrie ($2,700) and Jaycob Brugman ($2,000).
New York Yankees (MAIN): Two days they have under performed for me but I am simply going back to the well today as they get a home match-up against Jesse Chavez and his 40% hard contact and 2.7 HR/9 to right-handed batters this season!
By locking in Luis Severino at SP we can only play three Yankee bats so I would focus on the three right-handed power bats in Gary Sanchez ($4,000), Aaron Judge ($4,800) and Starlin Castro ($3,200).
In order to fit in the Yankees bats we are going to need a cheap stack somewhere and I think the Los Angeles Dodgers RHB versus Steve Matz are the key to unlocking that roster build. We will have to wait on line-ups to be released (hopefully before lock tonight Dodgers thanks) but if Logan Forsythe ($2,500), Franklin Gutierrez ($2,100) and Kike Hernandez ($2,300) are all in the line-up for LA then you can easily stack them and open up enough salary for the pricey Yankee bats!
FanDuel MLB – Sample GPP Line-up and Slate Overview:
EARLY
P: Carlos Martinez ($10,400)
C: Russell Martin ($2,500)
1B: Jose Abreu ($3,800)
2B: Jed Lowrie ($2,700)
3B: Todd Frazier ($3,300)
SS: Tim Anderson ($2,800)
OF: Avisail Garcia ($3,600)
OF: Khris Davis ($3,900)
OF: Jaycob Brugman ($2,000)
MAIN
P: Luis Severino ($9,800)
More from FanSided
- USMNT news: Turner to Forest, Trusty to Sheffield, Reynolds to Westerlo
- Inside the Clubhouse: What I’m hearing as the MLB Trade Deadline nears
- Yankees: Luis Severino has blunt assessment of another miserable outing
- Bills: 3 2023 roster holes that could cost Josh Allen a Super Bowl and why
- Colts RB Jonathan Taylor shoots down rumors of troubling injury
C: Gary Sanchez ($4,000)
1B: Matt Adams ($3,400)
2B: Starlin Castro ($3,200)
3B: Logan Forsythe ($2,500)
SS: Dansby Swanson ($2,900)
OF: Aaron Judge ($4,800)
OF: Franklin Gutierrez ($2,100)
OF: Kike Hernandez ($2,300)
Slate Overviews: Both the Early and Main Slate are very similar in terms of roster build as I think you simply need to lock in the top two arms and look to differentiate elsewhere. On the Early Slate I think by taking a stand to fade Coors Field will be a key differentiation and on the Main Slate do not be afraid to jump back on the Yankees bats and use the Dodgers value to make the roster work!
Best of luck in your FanDuel MLB contests and stay tuned to Fantasy CPR on Twitter for all the late breaking lineup news and roster updates!