Fantasy Baseball 2017: Should we consider re-buying Jason Hammel?

Dropped Jason Hammel months ago? It might be time to reconsider the veteran right-hander on your fantasy baseball roster after a much improved month on the mound.

I’m not really sure what’s going on with starting pitchers anymore. R.A Dickey threw a shutout on Tuesday, Seth Lugo is a thing, and Clayton Kershaw has already allowed twice as many home runs than he did last season.

There is one elephant in the room, though, and wouldn’t you believe it. It’s our old buddy, Jason Hammel. Wait, maybe he’s more of a ghost. Yeah, a 34-year old ghost that continues to haunt us as soon as we’ve rid ourselves of that lousy 4.83 ERA and his useless 4-6 win/loss record.

I’m normally the kind of person that stays well away from washed up elderly pitchers, but Hammel’s run this month caught my eye. Don’t get me wrong, it isn’t that incredible. In fact, with some basic arithmetic, you’ll realize he’s allowed 7 ERs in the last three weeks.

But what makes Hammel relevant currently, is just how killer his pitches have been. When we break down Hammel’s five-pitch arsenal (four-seamer, sinker, change, slider, curveball) it’s easy to look at the 88 hits he’s allowed and label this guy as over the hill. When we look past the crooked numbers, though, Hammel’s fastball, in particular, makes him a pitcher worth buying into if you’re seriously seeking some strikeouts.

Hammel’s precise fastball away and towards the very top of the zone is hurting hitters. In fact, the entire Royals lineup is laying a pounding on everyone, but Hammel’s fastball is the weapon he’s kept in his back pocket for years.

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You might wonder why a pitcher would opt to challenge hitters with such a dangerous pitch if it’s not executed properly, but rest assured, there’s method to Hammel’s madness. The fastball high and away opens up the rest of the strike zone, and after hitters slowly begin to adjust, that’s when Hammel goes full breaking-ball-mode and switches gears entirely.

Hammel’s fastball high and away is finding the top outside corner of the zone 9.6% of the time. It’s good for a 45% swing rate this month and is partly responsible for the 19 strikeouts he’s accumulated over his last four starts.

Speaking of starts, Hammel’s last four have quite literally been quality. It’s not like he’s doing this against below average teams either, facing the Indians, the Astros and the Red Sox all within the last four weeks. Again, the reason for the recent hot streak is due to nothing more than a deceiving fastball and a well-disciplined slider.

Against the Red Sox in particular last week, Hammel threw his fastball only 13.2% of the time. He followed that up by throwing his slider 36.3% of the time, but the most telling stat was the Red Sox 41% swing rate on pitches thrown outside of the zone – the highest it’s been since September 2014.

You don’t need to be a genius to work out that Hammel had the entire Red Sox lineup guessing on pitches thrown outside of the zone. Yes, I know he gave up 2 ER on a HR to Jackie Bradley Jr., but still, this is a big improvement we never saw coming from the veteran.

The movement Hammel is maintaining on his breaking balls is also just as impressive. In the 179 times he threw the slider during May, it averaged a 3.09 horizontal movement across the zone, and Hammel’s velocity on the pitch still stands at a respectable 85 MPH.

Owned in just 16.5% of leagues, I don’t think any of these numbers suggest Hammel is washed up just yet. If anything, these kind of numbers are typical right before the All-Star break.

In June, Hammel’s career numbers look like this: 3.53 ERA (career low), 36 HR’s, 244 strikeouts and a .301 wOBA (career low). He loves the summer months, and perhaps the only concern I can warn you about here is the fact that Hammel holds a career .464 SLG against in the second half of the season.

If you are looking for someone who can gift you a bunch of innings, though, Hammel is worth an add. He’s pitched five innings or less only four times this season, and normally lasts at least six. His 59 strikeouts on the year rank him 68th in the league, two spots behind C.C. Sabathia (which isn’t great), but he is racking up the K’s quickly this month.

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If you’re in an A.L only league, Hammel is certainly someone to reconsider owning. Keep an eye on his .311 BABIP after the All-Star break, but with a much more accurate arm and a hard hit rate (29.3%) that is the lowest it’s been since 2011, Hammel is again fantasy relevant.

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