FanDuel MLB Daily Picks and Pivots – June 25
Welcome to the Sunday FanDuel MLB edition of Picks and Pivots, a fantasy baseball column focused on helping you find the best core lineup for today’s Main slate which kicks off at 1:10PM EST!
For those of you finding us for the first time, the concept behind FanDuel MLB Picks and Pivots is to first identify key building blocks that can be used for any roster construction and then identify pivot points to help differentiate your lineup in hopes of a big payday!
Saturday’s Main winning GPP scores were well below our season average as it took 205.6 FanDuel points to take down a tournament! Over the first 88 slates of the FanDuel MLB season, the average winning score to take down a GPP has been 262.7 points. Looking back at last season, the winning GPP lineup on average scored 255 FanDuel points with a typical roster build that allocated 25% of your salary cap to your SP and the remaining 75% to your hitters.
Over the first 88 slates of the FanDuel MLB season, the average winning score to take down a GPP has been 262.7 points.
Saturday’s Main Slate winning GPP scores were incredibly low scoring as the winning GPP lines barely over 200 FanDuel points! Pitching ruled the day as Jacob deGrom at 10% ownership put up 52 FanDuel points on the back of 8K’s over 7 innings of work. Offenses across the league were quiet across the league as the highest run totals (7) from the Padres and Pirates were done without many DFS fireworks!
Each day we will break down our top Starting Pitcher and our top hitting stacks of the day while giving you our thoughts on roster build and lineup construction.
As always, we will look to update our picks and final lineup thought prior to lock on our twitter account @FantasyCPR so make sure to give us a follow for all the late breaking lineup news.
Without further ado, let’s get into today’s slate!
FanDuel MLB – Top Starting Pitcher Pick:
Sonny Gray ($8,000): If you like high-end elite starting pitching from the best arms in baseball then you may want to skip this slate as we don’t have a single arm priced over $9k today and no pitcher has a K rate over 24%. For GPP players who typically fade the high-priced arms anyways this is a dream slate as the opportunity cost of “missing” at starting pitcher is lower than it will normally be which means we can take chances as we dive deeper into the pitching slate.
The one arm that stands out to me today is Sonny Gray who gets a home start against the Chicago White Sox and Vegas has installed him as a -122 favorite today. Gray has a 23.7% K rate which is the second highest on this slate with an 11.3% swinging strike rate and elite 52% ground ball rate.
The one issue we always run into with Gray is his propensity to walk batters at a high clip which leads to crooked numbers on the scoreboard. Gray has walked 3 or more batters in three of his last four starts but today will face a White Sox team that walks at the lowest rate in all of baseball against right-handed pitchers.
The White Sox have a 22.7% K rate against RHP this season which is 10th highest in baseball and when you combine that with Gray’s 25% K rate at home this season this match-up has some sneaky strike out upside!
I expect for $900 more most will go for the “upside” of Michael Pineda against Texas as a -210 favorite bit with 82 degree temperatures in Yankee stadium with the wind blowing out at 10 MPH to left field I am simply going to avoid Pineda chalk and take the savings on Gray who has similar K upside at lower ownership!
FanDuel MLB – Top Hitting Stacks:
New York Yankees versus Nick Martinez: Welcome to Yankee chalk day! The Yankees have a 6 implied run total today which is the highest on the board and with no high-end pitchers to spend up on I would expect the pricey bats of the Yankees to be the first names clicked into the majority of rosters today!
Nick Martinez has given up 2.13 HR/9 to right-handed batters this season but conversely has only allowed 28% hard contact with a 35% fly ball rate. The reality is, Martinez is not as big of a “blow up” pitcher as I think most in DFS will assume he is as only two starts this year have resulted in 5 or more runs and only two of his last six starts has he given up more than 1 home run in a game.
I expect the ownership levels for Aaron Judge ($4,900) and Gary Sanchez ($3,800) to be at insane levels so although I want exposure here, I think picking guys outside of that core is the best way to differentiate today. Starlin Castro ($3,300) and Didi Gregorious ($3,100) are a great way to get exposure here at two tough to fill positions and their ownership should be a fraction of the bigger names in this Yankees line-up.
Tampa Bay Rays: If you are a GPP DFS player than you likely have a love/hate relationship with the Tampa Bay Rays as their boom or bust nature can lead to rough outings but they have the kind of upside that can win you big chunks of money in tournaments!
Today the Rays have a 5+ projected run total at home and will take on Chris Tillman who has the advanced metrics (in a bad way) we want to attack with opposing offenses. Tillman only has an 8% K rate to left-handed batters while walking them at nearly 20% – seriously read that again! Against right-handed batters Tillman has given up 2.3 HR/9 with a 37.4% hard contact rate.
The Rays are my favorite stack on the board today as they will likely be ignored by all the Yankee love and we can easily build a middle of the order stack with Logan Morrison ($3,600), Corey Dickerson ($4,000) and Wilson Ramos ($2,500) who made his return from the DL yesterday! For you BvP lovers, Evan Longoria ($3,300) is 19 for 63 with EIGHT home runs against Tillman in his career!
FanDuel MLB – Sample GPP Line-Up and Slate Overview:
P: Sonny Gray ($8,000)
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- Colts RB Jonathan Taylor shoots down rumors of troubling injury
C: Wilson Ramos ($2,500)
1B: Logan Morrison ($3,600)
2B: Starlin Castro ($3,300)
3B: Evan Longoria ($3,300)
SS: Didi Gregorious ($3,100)
OF: Aaron Hicks ($3,300)
OF: Corey Dickerson ($4,000)
OF: Khris Davis ($3,900) KD is one of my favorite one off plays today as Derek Holland has been absolutely crushed by RHB this season to the tune of 2.3 HR/9 and 43% hard contact!
Slate Overview: Today is a great GPP slate as a result of the underwhelming pitching options we have to choose from so my recommendation is to play heavier on the tournament side today and don’t be afraid to take some pitching risks as the opportunity cost is extremely low. From a hitting perspective there are going to be some clear chalk paths so if we can avoid those (and pray Judge doesn’t double dong) we could have a big jump on the rest of the field!
Best of luck in your FanDuel MLB contests and stay tuned to Fantasy CPR for all the late breaking lineup news and roster updates!