The young Denver Nuggets missed the playoffs by one game last season. Whom should they acquire in free agency to build around star center Nikola Jokic and make a push toward the playoffs?
The Nuggets missed the playoffs by one game after being nine games below .500 in December. Starting the season with a jumbled big man rotation, Coach Mike Malone turned to Nikola Jokic as his starting center in late December. Jokic had shown real potential during his rookie campaign but he was an absolute revelation in his second year, performing at historic levels on the offensive end of the floor.
Jokic was the linchpin of a blistering Denver offense and the main catalyst in their turnaround. Permanently inserting Jokic into a starting role transformed the Nuggets into a top five NBA offense, although the team’s defense predictably suffered; they finished ahead of only the lowly Lakers in defensive efficiency (per ESPN Hollinger Stats). Despite his defensive limitations, Jokic is only 22 and he is a legitimate franchise cornerstone that the Nuggets will look to build around.
New GM Arturas Karnisovas has a few key decisions to make this summer that could be critical in determining Denver’s ceiling over the next few years. Will the Nuggets re-sign Danilo Gallinari and Mason Plumlee and bank on internal improvement from young players to propel the team into the playoff picture? Or will they move in a different direction and take some risks that increase the team’s upside? I’m inclined to think that bringing those guys back, especially at high prices, will hurt the potential of this team to become a long-term contender. Neither Gallo nor Plumlee helps to alleviate Denver’s biggest weaknesses, which are defensive versatility and prowess on the wing and in the frontcourt.
Letting those guys go would hurt, especially in the case of Gallo who’s been great for the Nuggets since joining them in February 2011. According to Adrian Wojnarowski of the Vertical, Gallinari has chosen to decline his player option and will enter free agency. That decision keeps Gallo on Denver’s books with a cap hold of $22.6 million until he makes a decision in free agency or the Nuggets renounce him, per Dan Favale of Bleacher Report. Plumlee will have a cap hold of about $6 million when he enters restricted free agency. That would give the Nuggets about $18 million to work with prior to resolving the situations of Gallo and Plumlee (assuming they waive Mike Miller’s non-guaranteed contract). If they renounce Gallo and Plumlee doesn’t attract much attention in restricted free agency, they would have around $40 million in space to work with.
Acquiring free agents that match Denver’s timeline and fit its roster needs will be tricky, especially if the team wants to maintain any semblance of cap flexibility next summer when Gary Harris and presumably Nikola Jokic enter restricted free agency (Jokic’s status as restricted depends on how Denver chooses to deal with his team option). Two-way players are hard to come by at the two through four spots and getting those guys without breaking the bank is almost impossible. A few players that could raise the team’s ceiling might be available at decent prices though. The Nuggets also have a shot at some of the more expensive guys on the market, but they’ll need to be careful about pulling the trigger on a huge, long-term signing.
Here are some of the players Denver should seriously consider as free agency looms.
5. James Johnson
Some of the top free agents available this summer were part of a gritty and super fun Miami team that barely missed the playoffs last season. James Johnson was one of the players that made that Heat team such a lovable bunch, posting a career year under the guidance of Coach Erik Spoelstra.
At 30 years old Johnson doesn’t solve all of Denver’s defensive problems, but he’s a reasonable replacement for Gallinari that would bring a unique set of skills to the Nuggets. One of the main reasons Johnson was so effective last season in Miami was because his 3-point shot improved significantly. His shooting has been erratic throughout his career, but Johnson sustained a 34 percent conversion rate on 3-pointers in big minutes for the Heat last year, which was by far a career high.
Johnson flashed more than just improved shooting though. Zach Lowe of ESPN highlighted the many subtleties of Johnson’s game in this year’s iteration of his annual “Luke Walton All Stars” column. Lowe pointed out that “He’ll run fast breaks, smush smaller dudes in the post, blow past plodders to launch soft lefty floaters, and set mean picks.” Johnson thus has a versatile, nuanced floor game that could unlock new sets and lineup possibilities for this Denver team. Even if Johnson regresses on offense, the Nuggets have enough talent on that end to compensate for him.
The most important skill Johnson would bring to Denver is defense. At 6-foot-9 and 250 pounds, Johnson is a sturdy presence that can defend along the perimeter and in the post. Johnson can guard multiple positions and he even played some small ball center for Miami as they made a last ditch push towards the playoffs. Denver needs a player like Johnson that can comfortably switch and defend almost every position (depending on the matchup of course). He’s not an automatic lockdown player, but he would help the Nuggets.
Contract length is going to be especially important if the Nuggets intend to sign Johnson. He hasn’t made much money throughout his career, so he’ll probably be looking for a big payday. The Nuggets have the space to oblige him, but they would be wise to overpay him over two years and avoid a long-term deal that would end in Johnson’s mid-thirties. Adding him for two years at a total value of $30 million seems like a good price to pay for his services. He would be a nice stopgap that can play the three and four spots until some of Denver’s younger talent improves on the defensive end.