30 teams in 30 days: Denver Nuggets offseason preview
By Jeff Siegel
The Nuggets went from one of the least-interesting teams in the league — one mired in mediocrity but not so bad to get a true superstar at the top of the draft — to a young team bursting with potential and the cap space to bring in a big-name free agent to guide their young team through the next few years. Nikola Jokic broke out and changed the entire direction of the team. They now have a true offensive superstar and the rest of the team will revolve around him for the rest of his prime.
This summer, the Nuggets have the unique opportunity to add a max-level free agent to their team, due to Jokic and several others still being on massively underpaid deals. Danilo Gallinari has already announced that he’ll opt out of his $16.1 million contract for next season, opening up $14.8 million in space for Denver.
Gallinari doesn’t fit the Nuggets’ timeline. He’ll be 29-years-old before next season starts and has significant injury concerns. Having already opted out of $16.1 million, it seems very unlikely Denver will bring him back. Renouncing his $22.6 million cap hold opens up a gargantuan amount of cap space, enough to sign any free agent on the market without having to give up any of their young core. Rumors are already circulating that they’ll meet with Chris Paul when free agency opens and will certainly be in the discussion with as many big-name free agents as possible. The prospect of playing with Jokic and the rest of Denver’s young core will be enticing for any veteran free agent.
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Paul would be a great get for the Nuggets, who have historically not been able to draw free agents, but any of the Gordon Hayward, Paul Millsap and Blake Griffin group would also be a fantastic fit in Denver. Millsap in particular makes sense as a defensive big man to play next to Jokic, who struggles on that end of the floor. Hayward hasn’t been linked to the Nuggets in any way, but he would certainly help them on the wing. They can also use their massive amount of cap space to trade for a star who doesn’t quite fit in his current situation (such as Kevin Love) and not have to match salary, but that would require them to part with a few of their carefully cultivated assets.
The Nuggets’ time to strike is now because Jokic and Gary Harris will likely get significantly more expensive next summer. They’ll make a combined $4.0 million in 2017-18; in 2018-19, that number should increase more than 10-fold, with Harris signing a new contract starting around $15 million and Jokic starting at $25 million. That $40 million will entirely cut out their 2018 cap space, so this is the year to bring in free agents if they’re going to push all their chips in the middle of the table with this core. They could, of course, bring in free agents next summer and then re-sign Jokic and Harris using their Bird Rights, but that would get extremely expensive and push them into the tax, which is something a small-market team like Denver cannot handle.
Even going after a max-level free agent this summer could push them into tax trouble in 2018-19.
Signing Millsap to a max contract would give them just $39.5 million between their current salary at the 2018-19 luxury tax threshold, and with $40 million set aside for Harris and Jokic, that math doesn’t quite add up for the Nuggets. This is yet another example of how the new punitive luxury tax penalties, implemented to help small-market teams, are actually doing the opposite, essentially setting the Nuggets with a hard cap they cannot exceed. One saving grace for Denver is they would have until the 2019 trade deadline to fix their money problems, since luxury tax penalties aren’t calculated until the end of the season in question. If they could move on from Kenneth Faried between now and then, they would have more wiggle room under the tax and perhaps have some money to bring in another free agent.
The other option for the Nuggets, if they strike out with Millsap, Paul and Hayward, would be to roll over their space to next season and come to terms with the fact that they may shell out more than $70 million in new money next summer. That plan may shock their ownership group, but it would be the last opportunity to bring in talent before their core gets too expensive. Going down that path means they need to either give out short contracts this summer or abandon their “big fish” strategy altogether. A wing defender would be prudent for them to continue to improve — Tony Allen, Thabo Sefolosha, Luc Mbah a Moute and P.J. Tucker all come to mind as guys they might get on short-term deals for an inflated annual salary.
Denver can also use their space to be a thorn in the side of teams with restricted free agents. Players like Andre Roberson, Jonathon Simmons and even Kentavious Caldwell-Pope and Otto Porter Jr. may sign an offer sheet in Denver to force their incumbent teams to match. If the other team doesn’t match, then Denver gets control of a solid wing whom they can always move next summer if they’re able to reel in a big fish; there will always be a shortage of wings on the market.
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The Nuggets are in the enviable position of having a young, inexpensive core, but they’ll still have to tread carefully to make sure they build correctly around that core and don’t hamstring themselves down the line. A massive contract for Millsap this summer will almost certainly be an albatross in the future, so they’ll have to weigh that against the value they would get in the first two or three years against what else is out there for them. Whether they land a major free agent or not, the Nuggets look to be very active in the free agency and trade market this summer as they continue to build off the momentum of last season.