FanDuel MLB Daily Picks and Pivots – June 28
Welcome to the Wednesday FanDuel MLB edition of Picks and Pivots, a fantasy baseball column focused on helping you find the best core lineup for today’s Main slate which kicks off at 7:05 PM EST!
For those of you finding us for the first time, the concept behind FanDuel MLB Picks and Pivots is to first identify key building blocks that can be used for any roster construction and then identify pivot points to help differentiate your lineup in hopes of a big payday!
Tuesday’s Main winning GPP scores were below our season average as it took 248.9 FanDuel points to take down a tournament! Over the first 91 slates of the FanDuel MLB season, the average winning score to take down a GPP has been 262.5 points. Looking back at last season, the winning GPP lineup on average scored 255 FanDuel points with a typical roster build that allocated 25% of your salary cap to your SP and the remaining 75% to your hitters.
Over the first 91 slates of the FanDuel MLB season, the average winning score to take down a GPP has been 262.5 points.
Before I approach each new day I look back at the previous night’s winning GPP roster builds to understand where we may have been right/wrong or completely missed something so we can learn and get better. Going into the Tuesday slate I was laser focused on the Reds/Brewers game as the ball park and pitcher’s set up perfectly for a big game and 14 runs later those teams did not disappoint as Adam Duvall, Billy Hamilton and Travis Shaw all homered from our Picks and Pivots line.
The winning line-ups in tournaments used the Reds stack as their core and built-in the chalkier Red Sox and Luis Severino to help deliver them a win. What I find interesting about this build is that even in tournaments the chalk stack (Boston) and clear Scherzer pivot in Severino were used and all it took was finding that one under the radar stack in the Reds who were all under 10% owned to gain an edge on the field! Sometimes we try to get too cute with our line-ups when all it really takes is a few low owned options in an otherwise chalk build to really change our nights!
Each day we will break down our top Starting Pitcher and our top hitting stacks of the day while giving you our thoughts on roster build and lineup construction.
As always, we will look to update our picks and final lineup thought prior to lock on our twitter account @FantasyCPR so make sure to give us a follow for all the late breaking lineup news.
Without further ado, let’s get into today’s slate!
FanDuel MLB – Top Starting Pitcher Pick
One thing I do each morning is I scroll through the starting pitching options and jot down players/match-ups that stand out to me so I can understand what price points these arms are at before I start digging into my bats. This morning as I dug into the slate what became clear to me was that this slate has a VERY strong mid-tier of pitching options, so much so that I believe paying up at SP tonight is unnecessary.
The first name that I highlighted in my research was Arizona right-hander Zack Godley ($8,100) who gets a home start against the St. Louis Cardinals.
From an advanced metrics perspective Godley checks all the boxes for me as a DFS pitcher – he has a 23.6% K rate (6th highest on this slate), a 13.9% swinging strike rate (2nd) and 60% ground ball rate (4th) however is priced as the 8th highest priced arm on the slate.
Over his most recent stretch of games Godley has turned up his performances to elite levels with a 32% K rate in each of his last two starts (at Coors Field and at Citizens Bank Park) and has a swinging strike rate of at least 12% in each of his last five outings.
Godley’s sinker/curveball combination has destroyed right-handed hitting line-ups this season as he has a 25% K rate versus RHP (versus 21% against LHB) and he has a minuscule 0.27 HR/9 versus right-handed bats this year which is important as the Cardinals projected line-up has 8 right-handed hitters in it!
The fact that this game is in Chase Field may scare some away which is absolutely fine with me as Godley has been every bit as dominant in Chase Field this season with a 24% K rate and 66% ground ball rate all while pitching to a 2.13 ERA.
If you need the salary savings then I have no issue going back to Picks and Pivot’s Friday Night hero in Luis Perdomo ($7,300) who put up 46 FD points and now has 36 or more FD points in 6 of his 11 starts this season. Perdomo has an absurd 65% ground ball rate and gets to face a Braves team in the friendly confines of San Diego tonight which only further boosts his upside at this price point.
FanDuel MLB – Top Hitting Stacks:
Boston Red Sox versus Adalberto Mejia: Another night where the Red Sox have the highest implied team total and after seeing Mookie Betts and Chris Young at 25% ownership last night, there is simply no reason not to expect the same type of ownership this evening.
This slate is setting up to be very similar to last night’s in that we have only three teams with implied team totals of 5 or more (Red Sox, Blue Jays and Astros) and the price points on the key hitters on these teams is such that you can easily stack them without having to sacrifice at pitcher.
Look at the top four from last night’s Red Sox line-up (against a LHP) – Mookie Betts ($3,900), Dustin Pedroia ($2,800), Xander Bogaerts ($3,500) and Chris Young ($2,500) – meaning I can stack the top 4 hitters in the top projected line-up of the day for less than $3.2k per player.
I understand ownership and game theory but sometimes the best plays are the best plays and at this price point I see no real reason to get cute. Mejia has given up a 37% hard contact rate and 1.7 HR/9 to right-handed batters this season and combined with a 14% walk rate, this is a spot I think we can stack up across the board tonight!
Toronto Blue Jays versus LHP Wade Miley: Miley struggles with right-handed bats and has given up 4 or more ER in each of his last four starts and now has to face a right-handed heavy power team in the Blue Jays – yeah this is stack city.
Similar to the Red Sox price points we can easily stack the top of the Toronto order here – Jose Bautista ($3,900), Russell Martin ($2,800), Josh Donaldson ($3,900) and Justin Smoak/Kendrys Morales ($3,500).
The beauty of this top of the order stack is that it leaves you needing a 2B (Pedroia), SS (Bogaerts) and two OF’s (Betts/Young) so marrying up the Blue Jays/Red Sox stack works to perfection positions wise and leaves you $8,200 for a starting pitcher which is right where Mr. Godley is waiting for us. Sometimes DFS just works.
FanDuel MLB – Sample GPP Line-Up and Slate Overview:
P: Zack Godley ($8,100)
More from FanSided
- USMNT news: Turner to Forest, Trusty to Sheffield, Reynolds to Westerlo
- Inside the Clubhouse: What I’m hearing as the MLB Trade Deadline nears
- Yankees: Luis Severino has blunt assessment of another miserable outing
- Bills: 3 2023 roster holes that could cost Josh Allen a Super Bowl and why
- Colts RB Jonathan Taylor shoots down rumors of troubling injury
C: Russell Martin ($2,800)
1B: Justin Smoak or Kendrys Morales ($3,500)
2B: Dustin Pedroia ($2,800)
3B: Josh Donaldson ($3,900)
SS: Xander Bogaerts ($3,500)
OF: Jose Bautista ($3,900)
OF: Mookie Betts ($3,900)
OF: Chris Young ($2,500)
Slate Overview: With only three teams projected to score over five runs tonight the “chalk” stacks are going to be easy to identify but that does not mean we need to shy away from the clear best line-ups. The Red Sox and Blue Jays have the two highest projected team totals on the slate and face off against hittable left-handed pitchers who surrender hard contact and home runs! As we laid out you can easily stack these two teams with the top of the order bats and still have enough left over for a high upside arm! Lock and load tonight kids!
Best of luck in your FanDuel MLB contests and stay tuned to Fantasy CPR on Twitter for all the late breaking lineup news and roster changes!