FanDuel MLB Daily Picks and Pivots – June 29
Welcome to the Thursday FanDuel MLB edition of Picks and Pivots, a fantasy baseball column focused on helping you find the best core lineup for today’s Main slate which kicks off at 7:05 PM EST!
For those of you finding us for the first time, the concept behind FanDuel MLB Picks and Pivots is to first identify key building blocks that can be used for any roster construction and then identify pivot points to help differentiate your lineup in hopes of a big payday!
Wednesday’s Main winning GPP scores were right above our season average as it took 265.7 FanDuel points to take down a tournament! Over the first 92 slates of the FanDuel MLB season, the average winning score to take down a GPP has been 262.5 points. Looking back at last season, the winning GPP lineup on average scored 255 FanDuel points with a typical roster build that allocated 25% of your salary cap to your SP and the remaining 75% to your hitters.
Over the first 92 slates of the FanDuel MLB season, the average winning score to take down a GPP has been 262.5 points.
Over the last few days we have seen the winning GPP scores either right at or below the season average as offenses have cooled a bit across the league. Last night the winning GPP rosters were built around Stephen Strasburg‘s 13 K performance and at 25%-30% ownership he showed why sometimes eating the chalk was critical to cashing out. The Astros were one of the highest projected scoring teams on the day and they delivered in a big way with 11 runs and George Springer (43.6) and Josh Reddick (37.9) carrying DFS teams!
Each day we will break down our top Starting Pitcher and our top hitting stacks of the day while giving you our thoughts on roster build and lineup construction.
As always, we will look to update our picks and final lineup thought prior to lock on our twitter account @FantasyCPR so make sure to give us a follow for all the late breaking lineup news.
Without further ado, let’s get into today’s slate!
FanDuel MLB – Top Starting Pitcher Pick:
Dinelson Lamet ($8,100): I respect Clayton Kershaw, I really do, but I simply am not paying $12,500 for a guy with only one 60+ FD point outing and 4 double-digit strike out performances in 16 games. With a match-up against an Angels team with limited K upside I just do not expect Kershaw to return value at this price point!
Looking through this slate’s starting pitchers there is one pitcher who has the highest K rate (32.3%) and swinging strike rate (14%) and it is not Clayton Kershaw, Chris Archer or David Price – it is Padres right-hander Dinelson Lamet.
If you are going to pivot away from Kershaw on this slate you need to take shots on high upside arms with strike out potential and Lamet simply checks all those boxes – add in the fact that he is priced at only $8k and you can afford over $3.3K per bat when building your line-up!
Lamet will toe the rubber in an exceptional pitcher’s park in San Diego and faces a Braves team with the fourth lowest team total on the slate. Although Lamet only has six starts this season, this is a pitcher who was putting up a 30% K rate in the minors so the strike out upside is very real. There is risk however as noted by his 41% hard contact rate (highest on the slate) which is reflected in his 6.60 ERA due to back to back seven earned run outings.
In his other four starts Lamet is averaging over 40 FanDuel points per game with over 8 K’s per game so I feel comfortable rolling him out in GPP’s tonight as he has demonstrated his ability to deliver more in the majority of his starts this season and will likely be ignored as the masses flock towards Kershaw at the top!
FanDuel MLB – Top Hitting Stacks:
With four games having totals of 10 or more and five teams projected to score 5 or more runs, this is a great spot to spread out your exposure and go with 2-3 man mini-stacks as opposed to full on four man stacks as there are simply too many good spots that I do not believe you need to zero in on any single team.
Toronto Blue Jays versus Ubaldo Jimenez: The Blue Jays are the top projected scoring team at 5.6 runs and get to face everyone’s favorite DFS whipping boy Ubaldo! Jimenez is giving up 2.2 HR/9 this season and 35% hard contact so getting exposure to any/all Blue Jays bats is going to be a must for me! The Jays only managed four runs last night and even though they had a high projection, the ownership levels outside of Josh Donaldson were 10% or lower so its possible that DFS players shy away after another “underwhelming night.”
My mindset in DFS is that you need to have a short memory and if a match-up against Ubaldo is not enough to get you back on guys like Josh Donaldson ($3,900) and Jose Bautista ($3,900) then you are likely never playing the Toronto bats!
New York Yankees versus James Shields: Wait, Ubaldo AND James Shields on the same slate? No, it is not Christmas but it sure feels like it. The last two seasons Shiels has given up over 2 HR/9 and 33% hard contact and when you get a pitcher who struggles with home runs going up against the Yankees bats, well it is simply a must exposure spot for me!Aaron Judge ($4,900) is the top play here but do not overlook Didi Gregorious ($3,100) who is batting clean-up for the short-handed Yankees and helps you fill a weak SS position!
Boston Red Sox versus Kyle Gibson: Another day of Red Sox high run totals and another chance to let us down! Short memory people! Kyle Gibson has a 14% K rate with an 11% walk rate, is giving up 1.5 HR/9 and 38% hard contact so I have no issue going back to the Red Sox bats tonight, specifically the left-handers who have a slightly better split in their favor! Andrew Benintendi ($3,200) and Mitch Moreland ($3,400) are two of my favorite plays on this slate and can be used as a mini-stack to get exposure to Gibson in Fenway Park!
FanDuel MLB – Sample GPP Line-Up and Slate Overview:
P: Dinelson Lamet ($8,100)
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C: Christian Vazquez ($2,500)
1B: Mitch Moreland ($3,400)
2B: Tyler Wade ($2,000)
3B: Josh Donaldson ($3,900)
SS: Didi Gregorious ($3,100)
OF: Aaron Judge ($4,900)
OF: Jose Bautista ($3,900)
OF: Andrew Benintendi ($3,200)
Slate Overview: The question any time Kershaw is on the slate is whether or not we need to pay up for him but with so many elite hitting spots, it may be best served to pay down at SP and load up on as many of those hitting environments as possible.
Best if luck in your FanDuel MLB contests and stay tuned to Fantasy CPR on Twitter for all the late breaking lineup news and roster updates!