FanDuel MLB Daily Picks and Pivots – June 30
Welcome to the Friday FanDuel MLB edition of Picks and Pivots, a fantasy baseball column focused on helping you find the best core lineup for today’s Main slate which kicks off at 7:05 PM EST!
For those of you finding us for the first time, the concept behind FanDuel MLB Picks and Pivots is to first identify key building blocks that can be used for any roster construction and then identify pivot points to help differentiate your lineup in hopes of a big payday!
Thursday’s Main winning GPP scores were right below our season average as it took 261.8 FanDuel points to take down a tournament! Over the first 93 slates of the FanDuel MLB season, the average winning score to take down a GPP has been 262.5 points. Looking back at last season, the winning GPP lineup on average scored 255 FanDuel points with a typical roster build that allocated 25% of your salary cap to your SP and the remaining 75% to your hitters.
Over the first 93 slates of the FanDuel MLB season, the average winning score to take down a GPP has been 262.5 points.
The Thursday GPP slate from a Picks and Pivots perspective was built around a Blue Jays stack against Ubaldo Jimenez as we said “forget BvP” we are going for it! Well Jimenez blanked the Jays bats and we got 0’s across the board for those big bats which sunk our line-ups even though Dinelson Lamet dropped 55 FanDuel points. The winning GPP lines were all very similar as they used the Milwaukee value bats who exploded for 11 runs and paired them with Clayton Kershaw (67 FD points) to rise above the rest of the pack!
Each day we will break down our top Starting Pitcher and our top hitting stacks of the day while giving you our thoughts on roster build and lineup construction.
As always, we will look to update our picks and final lineup thought prior to lock on our twitter account @FantasyCPR so make sure to give us a follow for all the late breaking lineup news.
Without further ado, let’s get into today’s slate!
FanDuel MLB – Top Starting Pitcher Picks:
As I opened up the slate on Thursday Night to get a first look at my pitching options I went right down the line – Wow, Jacob deGrom at home versus the Phillies, Alex Wood in San Diego against a team that cannot hit lefties, Robbie Ray, Lance McCullers and Michael Pineda all going – strikeout upside everywhere we look!
Pitching is loaded on this slate and honestly you can make a case for probably 5-10 arms without having to really twist my arm so it is going to be a challenge to zero in on 1 or 2 arms. That also likely means that ownership will be very spread out which is perfect for GPP’s but keep in mind that with so many good arms on the slate your opportunity cost for missing with your SP choice on a one pitcher site like FanDuel could sink your night so make sure you do your research.
From my perspective there are two arms that really stood out to me in the mid-tier that give me similar strike-out upside to the higher priced arms mentioned above and are in match-ups that I believe they can exploit all while giving me more money to spend up on bats!
Jacob Faria ($8,400): Faria was featured in his last start against the Orioles in my Picks and Pivots write-up so it seems only obvious I would go back to him in the same match-up today! Faria has a 28.2% K rate (4th highest on the slate), and a 13% swinging strikeout rate (also 4th highest on the slate) but is priced as the 10th most expense arm on this slate.
Faria has a 29% K rate to right-handed hitters which is important facing a right-handed heavy team like Baltimore. In his last start the advanced metrics were very impressive as he had a 26% K rate, 15% swinging strike rate, 25% hard contact rate and outside of two HR’s (only 5 total hits allowed) he was basically cruising through this line-up. Faria “only” managed 34 FD points in that start which was his lowest output of the year (if that is his floor then you can even consider him for cash games) after back to back 50+ FD point outings!
Faria is a slight road favorite in this spot and takes on a Baltimore team that has the 8th highest K rate against right-handed pitching this season. For the price point, we can capture the same strikeout upside of the higher priced arms while giving us the salary flexibility to load up on bats which is always an added bonus.
Sonny Gray ($8,300): For just $100 less than Faria you can utilize the same core roster build and simply swap out your starting pitcher which is a strategy I love to employ each night for multiple entries. Gray gets a home start against Atlanta and is coming into tonight with 46 or more FanDuel points in two of his last four games, generating a swinging strike rate of 12% or more in each of those starts.
The Braves have one of the lowest projected run totals on the board and considering Gray has held batters at home this season to a .294 wOBA and 0.5 HR/9, we can expect solid run prevention on top of an above average strikeout arsenal.
FanDuel MLB – Top Hitting Stacks:
With so much pitching on this slate it is not surprising that the offensive options are less obvious but we still have five teams with a projected run total of 5 or more on this slate.
New York Mets versus Ben Lively: The Mets have a 4.8 run projection today, the 9th highest on the slate, so it is unlikely they become overly popular but it is worth noting that this is one of the hottest offenses in baseball and returns to Citi Field tonight against one of the worst pitchers on the slate in Ben Lively.
In the month of June the Mets have hit 50 home runs, the highest mark in all of baseball, and even as a Mets fan this number surprised me as the team has largely scuffled to this point in the season so my guess is that most will continue to overlook this offense.
Lively is an absolutely exploitable pitcher who has given up a 34% hard contact rate, 1.1 HR/9 and a brutal 8 % K rate, 6.8% swinging strike rate and a 6% walk rate. Lively simply puts the ball in play too often and with a hard contact rate high enough that a good offense should jump all over him – and the Mets bats are priced at a great discount for a full on stack!
Curtis Granderson ($3,500), Jay Bruce ($3,500), Yoenis Cespedes ($3,200) and Asdrubal Cabrera ($3,000) give you a 1-4 team stack here at a reasonable cost and with warm temperatures and 13MPH winds blowing straight out tonight, I am going all in on the Amazin’s in my rosters!
Milwaukee Brewers versus Edinson Volquez: One night after going off for 11 runs, the Brew Crew gets to take on a pitcher in Volquez who is giving up a 41% hard contact rate to left-handed batters and will have to face a line-up loaded with them in Miller Park. The Brewers have the fourth highest run projection and should be popular tonight after Thursday night’s offensive explosion but I think you would be wise to go back and get exposure to guys like Travis Shaw ($3,800) and Eric Thames ($2,900).
BVP ALERT: If you like BvP then tonight is your night as there are some eye-popping individual match-ups to exploit. Evan Longoria ($3,400) is 20 for 66 with 9 home runs against Chris Tillman including a blast in the last game they played just a few days ago! The Rays have the highest team total on the board so building stacks around Longoria tonight is absolutely in play as Tillman this season has given up 2 HR/9 with a 36% hard contact rate. Mallex Smith ($2,800), Logan Morrison ($3,600) Corey Dickerson ($4,200) and Wilson Ramos ($2,300) are all in play as stack options around Longoria if you choose to go that route!
Carlos Correa ($4,000) meanwhile will take on Michael Pinata (Pineda) for whom he is 6 for 10 with 3 home runs against. BvP is real people. With shortstop being so weak now with Trea Turner out with broken wrist I think paying up for Correa is an intriguing contrarian strategy as I expect most will look to save salary here tonight!
FanDuel MLB – Sample GPP Lineup and Slate Overview:
P: Jacob Faria ($8,400) or Sonny Gray ($8,300)
C: Manny Pina ($2,500)
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1B: Eric Thames ($2,900)
2B: Asdrubal Cabrera ($3,000)
3B: Travis Shaw ($3,800)
SS: Carlos Correa ($4,000)
OF: Yoenis Cespedes ($3,200)
OF: Jay Bruce ($3,500)
OF: Curtis Granderson ($3,500)
Slate Overview: I love this slate. Love. It. Any time we can get a slate with this many pitching options at so many different price points we can be assured of a variety of line-up build paths that should dilute ownership across the board. Although I love the top end arms here tonight I simply think you can drop down and capture similar upside with guys like Faria and Gray that allow you to load up on the high upside power bats across the league.
Best of luck in your FanDuel MLB contests and stay tuned to Fantasy CPR on Twitter for all the late breaking lineup news and roster updates!