FanDuel MLB Daily Picks and Pivots – July 1
Welcome to the Saturday FanDuel MLB edition of Picks and Pivots, a fantasy baseball column focused on helping you find the best core lineup for today’s THREE slates which kicks off at 1:07 PM EST!
For those of you finding us for the first time, the concept behind FanDuel MLB Picks and Pivots is to first identify key building blocks that can be used for any roster construction and then identify pivot points to help differentiate your lineup in hopes of a big payday!
Friday’s Main winning GPP scores were right above our season average as it took 291.4 FanDuel points to take down a tournament! Over the first 94 slates of the FanDuel MLB season, the average winning score to take down a GPP has been 262.8 points. Looking back at last season, the winning GPP lineup on average scored 255 FanDuel points with a typical roster build that allocated 25% of your salary cap to your SP and the remaining 75% to your hitters.
Over the first 94 slates of the FanDuel MLB season, the average winning score to take down a GPP has been 262.8 points.
Friday’s winning GPP line-up was built around the arm of Jacob deGrom who struck out 12 Phillies on his way to 64 FanDuel points at less than 10% ownership. Offensively the Dodgers and Mariners were the two key offenses to build around as they exploded for 20 combined runs and punt catcher Austin Barnes was the hero of the night with 54 FanDuel points at only 2.2% ownership for the Dodgers!
Each day we will break down our top Starting Pitcher and our top hitting stacks of the day while giving you our thoughts on roster build and lineup construction.
As always, we will look to update our picks and final lineup thought prior to lock on our twitter account @FantasyCPR so make sure to give us a follow for all the late breaking lineup news.
Without further ado, let’s get into today’s slate!
FanDuel MLB – Early Slate Overview:
Normally in Picks and Pivots we break down the slate with pitchers first and then dive into the batter’s however with FanDuel opting to break today into essentially three slates, an Early, Main and Main II (seriously what is that?) we are going to approach today a bit differently.
First things first, I do not like how today is laid out on FanDuel and will play much less volume than I normally do and I recommend you do the same. I really struggle to understand why FanDuel would break today’s 1PM start from the 4PM games – typical Main slate have both 7PM and 10PM EST games so why not combined the 1PM and 4PM games into one slate with a better variety of contests? I am sure they have their reasons but my perspective is that this slates are ugly and should be played sparingly.
That said, I am still going to have a few bullets in each slate for fun as I kick off my July 4th weekend so let’s dive into how we want to play this!
Starting Pitcher:
The Early Slate pitching is about as cut and dry as any four game slate can be – we have Chris Sale as the clear top dog and Jose Berrios as the “upside tournament pivot.” However on a four game slate I am simply not going to roster the two pitchers that will make up 75% of the ownership and will look for ways to differentiate.
If we are fading Sale/Berrios we need to look for a high upside K arm and I am going to drop all the way down to Francisco Liriano ($7,100) who is at home facing off against Mr. Sale. Crazy you say? Hear me out!
Liriano is incredibly familiar with this Boston team, sporting a 32% K rate with only 1 HR allowed over 46 at bats. The Red Sox have the second lowest run total on the slate (behind only the Blue Jays versus Sale) and Liriano put up 40 FanDuel points against this same Boston team in his only other match-up this season on the back of 6 K’s and 0 ER.
I think most look at Liriano as this gas can waiting to explode but the reality is he has given up 3 ER or fewer in all but three starts this season. If Liriano can give you a similar outing to his last start against Boston and can steal the win from Chris Sale on the opposite side, you could have a big advantage over the rest of the field and you have the salary savings to load up on the hitters that Sale owners won’t have!
Hitting Stacks:
The Early Slate hitting is kind of underwhelming as the Rangers and White Sox have the highest projected run totals at 4.76 runs which supports the idea most will pay up for pitching due to the perceived lack of high upside bats.
With a Liriano based line-up however we have the ability to get whatever bats we want and for my money I will look towards the Detroit Tigers against Josh Tomlin and the Texas Rangers against Derek Holland.
Josh Tomlin is giving up 40% hard contact and 1.4 HR/9 to left-handed batters this season and 34% hard contact and a 1.9 HR/9 rate to right-handers so a full on team stack is a great way to approach the Tigers line-up. The Tigers have an underwhelming run total under 4 projected runs but the reality is they have significant BvP success against Tomlin across the board.
Miguel Cabrera ($4,000), J.D Martinez ($3,800), Justin Upton ($3,400) and Alex Avila ($3,100) are all pricey but they have the upside to punish a guy like Tomlin and his home run tendencies. With the focus on pitching early today, these price points on the Tiger bats combined with a low projected run total should lead them to be largely overlooked in GPP’s.
The Rangers have the highest team total on the slate so by default it will likely make them popular but going up against Derek Holland I still think we should have exposure here. You attack Holland with RHB as he has a 2.14 HR/9 and 41% hard contact rate against him this year! Adrian Beltre ($3,800), Elvis Andrus ($3,300) and Carlos Gomez ($3,100) are all elite plays here today and make for a tidy three-man stack in the heart of the Rangers order!
FanDuel MLB – The Main Slate
Starting Pitcher
Any slate that has Dylan Bundy and Zack Wheeler as the top arms tells you all you need to know about why I wanted it combined with the Early Slate! Complaining aside, I think it actually makes sense to stay at the top of the pitching tier on this slate and lock in the relative “safety” of Zack Wheeler ($8,200).
As risky as Wheeler coming off the DL may feel, the reality is he is the largest favorite of any pitcher today (-165) and the Phillies have the lowest team total of any team on the Main Slate. The fact that Wheeler is coming off the DL AND gave up 15 ER in the last two starts before he went out may lead him to be under-owned and my guess is that most will try to pay down at SP and take some GPP shots on guys we normally would not consider. From a roster build perspective the price point on Wheeler is cheap enough that we can still load up on bats and with the Phillies offense striking out at a 24% clip, this is a good spot for Wheeler to get his punch outs and hopefully grab you a QS/Win combo at lower than expected ownership.
Hitting Stacks:
With the lack of pitching it is no surprise that the hitting options are plentiful as the five highest projected scoring teams are all on the Main Slate! The Tampa Bay/Baltimore game has a massive Coors Field like 11 projected game total (a good reason to stay away from Bundy) so a full on game stack here is absolutely in play!
Jake Odorizzi is brutal on the road as he has a 2.2 HR/9, 32 % hard contact and .347 wOBA and this Orioles team is VERY familiar with the Rays right-hander. Manny Machado ($3,100) and Adam Jones ($2,900) absolutely own Odorizzi putting up 187.5 FanDuel points against him in 10 games just between the two of them!
Odorizzi is a reverse splits arm giving up 46% hard contact 2.3 HR/9 to right-handed bats so completing a stack with guys like Mark Trumbo ($3,300) and Jonathan Schoop ($3,300) allows you to load up on the highest projected scoring team on the slate!
On the Tampa Bay side against Bundy can be attacked with left-handed hitters as he sees his K rate drop 12% versus a 10% walk rate and the hard contact spikes to nearly 40%! The usual duo of Corey Dickerson ($4,000) and Logan Morrison ($3,600) is firmly in play here today and with no high-end arms to pay up for, salary is simply not an issue!
FanDuel MLB – The Main Slate II
Starting Pitcher
Zack Greinke ($9,400): I simply see no reason to fade Greinke in this spot based off the price point alone. Unlike Sale on the Early Slate, Greinke’s price is incredibly reasonable due to this game being against the Rockies in Chase Field but this is not a match-up I think we need to avoid.
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Greinke has faced the Rockies three times this season and has put up 7 or more K’s in each of those outings with 40 or more FanDuel points in two of those three games – his best outing being a 9 K performance in Chase Field earlier this season. Greinke has the highest K rate (29%)and highest swinging strike rate (14%) on the day outside of Chris Sale so this is an easy plug and play for me at a value price point!
Hitting Stacks
The Main Slate offenses are not overly appealing but there are a few spots outside of Chase Field that I think we can attack when building around Greinke on this slate. The Mariners will face off wit Ricky Nolasco who has given up 2.3 HR/9 this season with a massive 38% hard contact rate. A full on Mariners stack is in play here with Robinson Cano ($3,600), Jean Segura ($3,400) and the birthday boy Nelson Cruz ($3,700) as my top plays!
The Dodgers bats remain hot and tonight will face Dillon Overton, a left-hander who is giving up 2.3 HR/9 and 38% hard contact so all the Dodgers right-handed bats are in play including Justin Turner ($3,500), Kike Hernandez($2,500) and Yasiel Puig ($2,500) and can be combined with the GPP winning upside of Cody Bellinger ($3,900).
Best of luck today – play these slates smart and do not over extend yourself and hopefully we see you at the top of the leaderboard during the day!
Best of luck in all your FanDuel MLB contests and stay tuned to Fantasy CPR for all the late breaking lineup news and roster updates.