FanDuel MLB Daily Picks and Pivots – July 2
Welcome to the Sunday FanDuel MLB edition of Picks and Pivots, a fantasy baseball column focused on helping you find the best core lineup for today’s Main Slate which kicks off at 1:07 PM EST!
For those of you finding us for the first time, the concept behind FanDuel MLB Picks and Pivots is to first identify key building blocks that can be used for any roster construction and then identify pivot points to help differentiate your lineup in hopes of a big payday!
Saturday’s Main winning GPP scores were below our season average as it took 259.5 FanDuel points to take down a tournament! Over the first 95 slates of the FanDuel MLB season, the average winning score to take down a GPP has been 262.8 points. Looking back at last season, the winning GPP lineup on average scored 255 FanDuel points with a typical roster build that allocated 25% of your salary cap to your SP and the remaining 75% to your hitters.
Over the first 95 slates of the FanDuel MLB season, the average winning score to take down a GPP has been 262.8 points.
I am so happy Saturday’s slate is over and that I stuck to my guns and played it lightly. The three split slates were brutal and thankfully we get back to a somewhat normal “main” slate today with 10 games to choose from. The winning Main slate line-ups utilized an 11 K performance from Rich Hill which delivered 64 FanDuel points and built around a Dodgers stack with Yankees/Astros one-offs the winning line-up put up scores just below the season average of winning GPP scores!
Each day we will break down our top Starting Pitcher and our top hitting stacks of the day while giving you our thoughts on roster build and lineup construction.
As always, we will look to update our picks and final lineup thought prior to lock on our twitter account @FantasyCPR so make sure to give us a follow for all the late breaking lineup news.
Without further ado, let’s get into today’s slate!
FanDuel MLB – Top Starting Pitcher Picks:
Looking over the Main Slate on Sunday’s 10 game docket, the most glaring aspect is that we do not have any arms that jump off as an obvious play meaning the “chalk” should be largely spread out, but I would expect the “name” arms like Jake Arrieta, Luis Severino and Jeff Samardzija to be the most highly owned plays.
In situations like this one when selecting my starting pitcher for GPP’s, I am always going to look at the arms with the biggest strikeout upside and there are two arms that I will be utilizing across my line-ups today.
Mike Clevinger ($7,600) has a 26.7% strikeout rate on the season which is the third highest mark on this slate behind Severino (26.9%) and the Shark (27.7%) while having the highest swinging strike rate (13.4%) of any pitching on the Main Slate.
What really intrigues me about Clevinger today are his splits, as he has a 30.4% K rate against right-handed bats and a walk rate 4% lower than to left-handed batters. Against right-handed batters Clevinger has a 46% ground ball rate compared to a 30% mark against left-handed batters and today will take on a Detroit Tigers team that outside of Alex Avila will be 100% right-handed.
The Tigers this season have a 23% K rate against right-handed pitching which is 9th highest in the league so by using Clevinger who has materially better numbers against right-handers we can capture elite strikeout upside at a low price!
Although I love Clevinger’s upside in this spot there is some risk involved as his 12% walk rate would indicate so this is not a slate where I will go 100% on the Indians right-hander and will look for a pivot arm in the same price range.
Dan Straily ($8,500): There are very few “double-digit” strikeout arms on this slate but it is worth noting that Straily has two games this season with 10 or more K’s (against the Phillies/Padres) and will take on a Brewers team today with a 24.6% K rate which is the third highest against right-handed pitchers this season.
There is absolutely risk here with this game being in Miller Park against a left-handed power hitting team like the Brewers but Straily actually has a higher K rate and lower hard contact rate against left-handers this season so the advanced stats show he may be able to navigate through those tough spots in the Milwaukee order.
FanDuel MLB – Top Hitting Stacks:
Tampa Bay Rays versus Kevin Gausman: There are certain teams/players each DFS player tends to gravitate towards and I always love those FanDuel recap e-mails which show your roster tendencies because it really gives you some perspective on where your mind tends to go over a long period of playing DFS. If that e-mail was sent today I would expect the Rays bats to be one of my most popular picks as their extreme boom/bust nature and the continually reasonable price points make them one of my top stacks whenever the spot is right!
Today the Rays will take on Kevin Gausman, a pitcher with the fourth highest SIERA on the slate who has given up a 34% hard contact rate and 1.4 HR/9 with no real splits difference so a full on Rays stack is firmly in play today. Logan Morrison ($3,600), Corey Dickerson ($4,000), Steven Souza ($3,300) and Evan Longoria ($3,300) make for a tidy heart of the order Rays stack today for a team with the third highest projected run total on the slate!
Baltimore Orioles versus Alex Cobb: On the other side of this game the Orioles have a 5.28 projected run total which is the highest on the slate and with 88 degree temperatures and the wind blowing slightly out, this is a full on game stack situation for me.
Cobb’s number on the surface, a 3.73 ERA for example, are a bit misleading as he has a SIERA a full run higher which means regression is coming and with a 38% hard contact rate this season the Orioles are in an elite spot to start that regression!
Jonathan Schoop ($3,300) and Manny Machado ($3,100) are my favorite two plays here and you can complete a stack in the OF with a value bat like Adam Jones ($2,900) which allow you to get exposure here at an overall reasonable price.
New York Yankees versus Mike Fiers: If you play DFS consistently it is likely you have picked on the Astros right-hander who has given up 2.77 HR/9 and 30.4% hard contact to right-handed hitters this season. Fiers has really stepped up his game in recent starts with a 55% ground ball rate so a full on Yankee stack is not something I will look to employ but rather will target one-off power at hard to fill positions like Gary Sanchez ($3,700) and Didi Gregorious ($3,300).
FanDuel MLB – Sample GPP Line-Up and Slate Overview:
P: Mike Clevinger ($7,600)
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C: Gary Sanchez ($3,700)
1B: Logan Morrison ($3,600)
2B: Jonathan Schoop ($3,300)
3B: Manny Machado ($3,100)
SS: Didi Gregorious ($3,300)
OF: Corey Dickerson ($4,000)
OF: Steven Souza ($3,300)
OF: Adam Jones ($2,900)
Slate Overview: These are the kind of slates that I absolutely love to play where there is no “obvious” chalk options and we can rely on our research to find the plays we really want to target. Mike Clevinger and Dan Straily are not names that will jump off the page to most but they have the kind of K upside we want in GPP’s and the salary allows us to stack the high-end offenses in Baltimore/Tampa/NY that could win us a GPP!
Best of luck in your FanDuel MLB contests and stay tuned to Fantasy CPR on Twitter for all the late breaking lineup news and roster updates!