FanDuel MLB Daily Picks and Pivots – July 3
Welcome to the Monday FanDuel MLB edition of Picks and Pivots, a fantasy baseball column focused on helping you find the best core lineup for today’s Main Slate which kicks off at 7:05 PM EST!
For those of you finding us for the first time, the concept behind FanDuel MLB Picks and Pivots is to first identify key building blocks that can be used for any roster construction and then identify pivot points to help differentiate your lineup in hopes of a big payday!
Sunday’s Main winning GPP scores were WAY above our season average as it took 326.8 FanDuel points to take down a tournament! Over the first 96 slates of the FanDuel MLB season, the average winning score to take down a GPP has been 263.5 points. Looking back at last season, the winning GPP lineup on average scored 255 FanDuel points with a typical roster build that allocated 25% of your salary cap to your SP and the remaining 75% to your hitters.
Over the first 96 slates of the FanDuel MLB season, the average winning score to take down a GPP has been 263.5 points.
Sunday’s FanDuel Main Slate was fascinating to see unfold as two players literally were the difference between cashing or not! Mookie Betts went OFF for 73 FanDuel points and Jose Ramirez followed with 56.8 which set the day up for scores that destroyed the season average. Pitching was largely a crap shoot but Picks and Pivots featured hurler Mike Clevinger delivered with 46 FD points at 2% ownership and was routinely found on the winning GPP rosters!
Each day we will break down our top Starting Pitcher and our top hitting stacks of the day while giving you our thoughts on roster build and lineup construction.
As always, we will look to update our picks and final lineup thought prior to lock on our twitter account @FantasyCPR so make sure to give us a follow for all the late breaking lineup news.
Without further ado, let’s get into today’s slate!
FanDuel MLB – Top Starting Pitcher Pick:
Masahiro Tanaka ($9,000) at home versus Toronto: One of the things I routinely talk about when building my Picks and Pivots roster is that I look through every starting pitcher THEN review the hitting slate before circling back to which pitcher I want to lock in on. The reason I do this is that the make-up of your hitting slate can sometimes drive your decision-making at pitcher and today is certainly one of those days.
Initially when I opened this slate up I balked at Tanaka as the highest priced arm in Yankee stadium against the Blue Jays offense and my eyes immediately went to Aaron Nola/Ivan Nova facing off against each other. Understanding and recognizing that gut reaction is important and I do not think that thought process will be unique today – in fact I think the Nova/Nola combination will be the overwhelming chalk on this slate so already I have lost interest!
Tanaka is only $700 more than Nola and Nova and as you will see when we get to hitters, salary simply is not an issue on this slate. What jumps out to the most to me with Tanaka is that the swinging strike rate has sky rocketed over his recent starts – 16%, 22%, 22%. and 16% – all of which are over his 14.3% season long mark (the highest of any pitcher on the slate).
Over his career the Blue Jays are a team that Tanaka has dominated giving up a .171 average, .218 OBP, .233 wOBA while striking out 25% of the batters over 146 at-bats.
Any time we get a pitching slate like we have today where there are no obvious must plays I am always going to resort back to the simple formula that I want to target the guys with the highest K upside. Tanaka over the last four starts has a 32% K rate and as I mentioned he has the highest swinging strike rate of any pitcher on the Main Slate so I will happily take the best strikeout arm on the slate who I believe may be over-looked due to the perception this is a match-up to avoid!
FanDuel MLB – Top Hitting Stacks
We have a game in Coors Field today so as usual I expect the masses to flock towards the Rockies and Reds bats however this may actually be a slate where the best game stack is outside of Coors and we can use the inflated ownership to our advantage.
The Reds/Rockies have a projected game total of 12 runs which is the highest on the slate but I am finding myself uninterested in paying the freight for the marquee bats in this game. On the Reds side they will face off with Jeff Hoffman who has yet to surrender a home run to left-handed batters this season (take note Votto & Schebler) and in fact has not given up more than one home run in any game this season. Even in his last home start against Arizona where he gave up 9 ER’s he did not give up a single home run and if you are stacking a team in GPP’s you need to grab those home runs for a big score so I think the Reds are a stay away spot for me.
On the Rockies side, they will take on Luis Castillo, the Mets/Marlins second base man who dropped a pop-up against the Yankees – oh wait, wrong Castillo. This Castillo is a hard throwing right-hander who routinely hits high 90’s with his fastball and has generated a 67% ground ball rate over his first two starts. I think the fact that Castillo is a rookie pitching in Coors will inflate the Rockies ownership and the price points on guys like Charlie Blackmon and Nolan Arenado (both over $4k) makes this a tough pill to swallow when there are better values elsewhere.
Red Sox and Texas: With a projected game total of 11 runs and high 90’s temperatures in Arlington, the Red Sox and Rangers may get over-looked with the shiny toy that is Coors Field. What really stands out to me in this game are the price points of the bats on FanDuel as you can realistically stack any and all of the top options here WITH Masahiro Tanaka as your starting pitcher.
The Rangers will face off against Rick Porcello, a pitcher who is giving up 1.5 HR/9 and 42% hard contact this season and has given up 2 HR in three of his last six games. The Rangers have a history of success against Porcello as well, with a .308 average and .345 wOBA over 143 at bats and although we only have seen one home run (Beltre), this Rangers offense is red-hot right now and one I am simply not fading.
Rougned Odor ($3,100), Adrian Beltre ($4,000), Elvis Andrus ($3,600) and Shin-Soo Choo ($3,100) are my top targets here and all come into this game simply racking up FanDuel points. Over the last week Andrus is averaging 21 FDP/game, followed by Beltre at 12, Odor at 10.7 and Choo at 7.3.
From a correlation perspective I have no issue going back to the Red Sox here against Martin Perez in the hope this game is an all around shootout! At home this season Martin Perez is giving up 39% hard contact and 1.4 HR/9 so the right-handed bats of Mookie Betts ($4,300), Chris Young ($2,400) and Hanley Ramirez($3,500) can be utilized as a stack here within a Rangers core build.
FanDuel MLB – Sample GPP Line-Up and Slate Overview:
P: Masahiro Tanaka ($9,000)
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C: $2k Punt Option
1B: Hanley Ramirez ($3,500)
2B: Rougned Odor ($3,100)
3B: Adrian Beltre ($4,000)
SS: Elvis Andrus ($3,600)
OF: Shin-soo Choo ($3,100)
OF: Mookie Betts ($4,300)
OF: Chris Young ($2,400)
Slate Overview: To me this slate comes down offensively to Coors Field or Arlington as I will have my hitting exposure 100% aligned to these two high scoring games. The pricing on FanDuel specifically with the Rangers bats provides such substantial value that paying up for the highest priced starting pitcher is easily doable will still stacking two high scoring options. Keep an eye on industry buzz throughout the day and adjust accordingly – if the Fade Coors narrative becomes overwhelming you can easily pivot to those bats in a similar roster build!
P’s and the salary allows us to stack the high-end offenses in Baltimore/Tampa/NY that could win us a GPP!
Next: MLB FanDuel Pitching Focus
Best of luck in your FanDuel MLB contests and stay tuned to Fantasy CPR on Twitter for all the late breaking lineup news and roster updates!