FanDuel MLB Daily Picks and Pivots – July 4 Main Slate
Welcome to the Tuesday July 4th FanDuel MLB edition of Picks and Pivots, a fantasy baseball column focused on helping you find the best core lineup for today’s Main Slate which kicks off at 7:10 PM EST!
For those of you finding us for the first time, the concept behind FanDuel MLB Picks and Pivots is to first identify key building blocks that can be used for any roster construction and then identify pivot points to help differentiate your lineup in hopes of a big payday!
Monday’s Main winning GPP scores were just above our season average as it took 280.9 FanDuel points to take down a tournament! Over the first 97 slates of the FanDuel MLB season, the average winning score to take down a GPP has been 263.7 points. Looking back at last season, the winning GPP lineup on average scored 255 FanDuel points with a typical roster build that allocated 25% of your salary cap to your SP and the remaining 75% to your hitters.
Over the first 97 slates of the FanDuel MLB season, the average winning score to take down a GPP has been 263.7 points.
Monday’s FanDuel winning GPP rosters were built around an over-looked Cardinals stack that erupted for 14 runs against Jeff Locke and the Marlins and when combined with Picks and Pivots pitcher Masahiro Tanaka, who delivered 52 FanDuel points on the back of 8 K’s over 7 innings, we were left with a winning tournament roster!
Each day we will break down our top Starting Pitcher and our top hitting stacks of the day while giving you our thoughts on roster build and lineup construction.
If you are looking for the Early Slate breakdown for today it can be found here – Early Slate Picks and Pivots.
As always, we will look to update our picks and final lineup thought prior to lock on our twitter account @FantasyCPR so make sure to give us a follow for all the late breaking lineup news.
Without further ado, let’s get into today’s slate!
FanDuel MLB – Top Starting Pitcher Pick (MAIN):
Holy. Pitching.
For a five game slate the pitching choices are borderline insane. Clayton Kershaw, Corey Kluber, Yu Darvish and David Price. The issue with this slate however is we have a game in Coors Field with Homer Bailey pitching and the Rockies have a SEVEN projected run total so you have to make a choice – are you paying up for Coors or an ace?
If you are opting to pay up for Coors today then you are going to need to find a value arm with the strikeout upside to keep you in Kershaw/Kluber range and hope your bats go off and make the difference. I expect this roster build to be somewhat popular but you can easily pair the Rockies big bats with Brad Peacock ($8,400) who will take on the Braves in Atlanta.
Peacock has all the metrics we look for in a DFS GPP arm as he has the highest K rate of any pitcher on the board (35.1%) which considering he is on the same slate as the aforementioned aces is quite impressive. Peacock has a similarly impressive 13.7% swinging strike rate which is the third highest on the board but it is his walk rate of 14.4% which is second highest on the slate which makes him risky.
Peacock has yet to pitch more than 5.2 innings this season as a result of the free passes and extra pitches he has to throw but he has between 96 and 106 pitches in each of his last three starts so we know the Astros will let him chuck it!
The one intriguing fact is that the Braves have only a 7.3% walk rate against right- handed pitching this season which is fifth worst in baseball so maybe this is the perfect match-up for Peacock! Much of that season long rate is skewed by Freddie Freeman and the current projected line-up has only a 5.4% walk rate which would be a full point lower than any other team in baseball.
If you are going the Coors route than Peacock is the obvious play and will be the arm I slot in to start my day but keep an eye on the industry buzz because if the Coors/Peacock roster build becomes chalk you are going to need to find a way to be different!
FanDuel MLB – Top Hitting Stacks (MAIN):
Homer Bailey in Colorado: Insert July 4th Fireworks Pun Here.
The Rockies have a 7 projected run total against a pitcher who has given up 14 ER in 4.2 innings of work. I can literally list off any number of metrics here but the reality is you are not going to see a run total like often against a pitcher who has been crushed in his only two starts since coming off the DL. On a five game slate this is a spot you simply have to attack full on and get four Rockies bats into your lineups – do not get cute.
I can see people trying to get contrarian and stack the bottom of the order of play the cheaper plays but if I am going all-in on Coors then I am going for the elite 1-4 plays here and stacking Charlie Blackmon ($4,600), Nolan Arenado ($4,800), Mark Reynolds (3,900) and D.J. LeMahieu ($3,600).
Los Angeles Dodgers RHB versus Patrick Corbin: If you are stacking the Rockies expensive bats then you need to find a cost-effective secondary stack and the Dodgers right-handed value bats are my preferred way to build tonight’s slate.
Corbin this season is giving up a .366 wOBA and 35% hard contact while allowing 12 home runs to right-handed hitters and will take on a Dodgers team that has BvP success against him across the board.
Austin Barnes ($2,600), Yasiel Puig ($2,400) and Kike Hernandez ($2,400) are all priced for value and fit in perfectly within a Rockies stack that allows you the ability to still grab a high K arm like Peacock.
One thing to note, the Arizona bats have gotten the Kershaw treatment with many bats at $1,776 or $2,017 so you can get a guy like Chris Owings to fill in your SS at a punt price if you need to fill in one-off roster spots with value!
FanDuel MLB – Sample GPP Line-Up and Slate Overview:
P: Brad Peacock ($8,400)
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C: Austin Barnes ($2,600)
1B: Mark Reynolds ($3,900)
2B: D.J. LeMahieu ($3,600)
3B: Nolan Arenado ($4,800)
SS: Chris Owings ($2,017)
OF: Charlie Blackmon ($4,600)
OF: Yasiel Puig ($2,400)
OF: Kike Hernandez ($2,400)
Slate Overview: For a five game slate, this one is going to be one of the crazier slates to watch unfold as the roster builds will be so drastically different in a pitching versus hitting context. Ultimately we will look back at this slate with either Coors Field or the Kershaw/Kluber plays dominating and we just need to hope we are on the right end of the spectrum! Enjoy your 4th!
Best of luck in your FanDuel MLB contests and stay tuned to Fantasy CPR for all the late breaking lineup news and roster updates.