FanDuel MLB Daily Picks and Pivots – July 8 Early Slates

Welcome to the Saturday FanDuel MLB edition of Picks and Pivots, a fantasy baseball column focused on helping you find the best core lineup for today’s Early Slate DFS action!

For those of you finding us for the first time, the concept behind FanDuel MLB Picks and Pivots is to first identify key building blocks that can be used for any roster construction and then identify pivot points to help differentiate your lineup in hopes of a big payday!

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Friday’s winning GPP scores were well above our season average as it took 302.6 FanDuel points to take down a tournament! Over the first 102 slates of the FanDuel MLB season, the average winning score to take down a GPP has been 263.7 points. Looking back at last season, the winning GPP lineup on average scored 255 FanDuel points with a typical roster build that allocated 25% of your salary cap to your SP and the remaining 75% to your hitters.

Over the first 102 slates of the FanDuel MLB season, the average winning score to take down a GPP has been 263.7 points.

Friday’s Main Slate was incredibly high scoring and the Picks and Pivots plays from Thursday were routinely found across the winning line-ups! Jesus Aguilar, our $2.1K punt play went off for 57.9 FanDuel points on the back of a two home run 7 RBI day and Max Scherzer delivered 41 FD points with a 10K performance against the Braves. The Indians middle infield combination of Jason Kipnis and Francisco Lindor combined for 64 FanDuel points as well helping our core line-ups land above the cash lines!

Each day we will break down our top Starting Pitcher and our top hitting stacks of the day while giving you our thoughts on roster build and lineup construction.

As always, we will look to update our picks and final lineup thought  prior to lock on our twitter account @FantasyCPR so make sure to give us a follow for all the late breaking lineup news.

Without further ado, let’s get into today’s slate!

FanDuel MLB – Very Early Slate Overview:

Normally we focus on the Main Slate and break down our top Starting Pitcher Plays and Hitting Stacks separately but with a multi-slate Saturday I am looking to take a different approach and give you my slate breakdown for each of the early offerings on FanDuel today.

Starting Pitcher:

Adalberto Mejia ($7,100): My expectation on the Very Early Slate is that Luis Severino will be the massive chalk play going up against a strikeout prone Brewers team so finding a low owned pivot on a three game slate will be critical.

I expect most will look at the Orioles right-handed heavy line-up and try to attack LHP Adalberto Mejia however I am going to take the opposite approach and use Mejia in a sneaky good match-up. The Orioles have a 25.3% K rate this season against LHP which is the 7th highest mark in all of baseball and Mejia comes into this game in solid form posting 32+ FanDuel points in each of his last three outings.

Want proof that middle of the road lefties can take advantage of Baltimore – Brent Suter, another LHP in his last start against Baltimore put up 8K’s and 51 FD points when facing the O’s!

If Mejia can put together another solid outing in that point range and Severino falters, the $2k savings we utilize to improve our bats could catapult us over the field!

Hitting Stacks:

One of the benefits of not using Severino as our SP is that we can stack four Yankees bats today instead of three – another under the radar differentiation strategy! The Yankees have the highest team total (5.38) on the Very Early Slate so I expect that will be popular but honestly this feels like a dangerous fade.

The Yankees will face the aforementioned Suter today and although he was spectacular in his last start, this Yankee team at home is a totally different animal and I think Aaron Judge ($5,000) and Gary Sanchez ($3,500) are must plays on this small slate.

Outside of the Yankees I think this is a great slate to spread out your exposure and take on more one-offs or 2 man stacks when building your GPP rosters. Brian Dozier ($3,200) and Miguel Sano ($3,600) are great plays against LHP Wade Miley who is giving up 1.5 HR/9 and 35% hard contact to right-handed batters this season.

In Toronto do not overlook the right-handed bats against a reverse splits pitcher in Mike Fiers who has given up 2.68 HR/9 and 31% hard contact this season to right-handed batters. The Blue Jays may get a bit over-looked on this slate so pairing guys like Jose Bautista ($3,900), Troy Tulowitzki ($2,900) and either Kendrys Morales ($3,500) or Justin Smoak ($3,500) is a great way to differentiate.

Slate Overview:

For a three game slate we actually have a ton of different approaches to roster construction as the hitting options are surprisingly plentiful. There are some “name spots” that I think will be popular including Luis Severino at pitcher and the Astros bats in Toronto but in GPP’s I think fading those spots is the right move. Severino has massive blow up potential against a left-handed power line-up like the Brewers and the Astros will have to deal with an elite ground ball pitcher in Marcus Stroman. The Twins/Blue Jays offensives will likely be over-looked here and make for a great way to capture upside while everyone is looking for the bigger named offenses on this slate!

FanDuel MLB – Early Slate Overview

Starting Pitcher:

Aaron Nola ($8,900): Although Stephen Strasburg ($10,800) is on this slate the arm I am most looking to target is Aaron Nola who gets a home start against an anemic Padres offense. Nola comes into this game in elite form, having put up 8 or more strike outs in three straight starts with 52 or more FanDuel points in each of those outings. The Padres have a 26.0% K rate which is the highest mark of any team in baseball and Nola’s ability to rack up K’s as evidenced by a 30% K rate in recent starts, gives him the ability to match an  arm like Strasburg for a material cost savings!

Hitting Stacks and BvP (Yes it is real):

The Tampa Bay Rays are my favorite stack on this slate as they take on Rick Porcello in Tampa today, a pitcher they have MASSIVE success against. In his career against the Rays hitters Porcello has given up 11 home runs in 200 at bats and a .345 wOBA and with Brad Miller ($2,900) back for Tampa Bay, the Rays line-up becomes even more dangerous!

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Miller in his career is 7 for 26 with 4 home runs against Porcello, a pitcher who is giving up 48% hard contact to left-handers this season. If you struggle against left-handers with power the Rays line-up is maybe the worst possible match-up you could ask for so a full on stack here with Logan Morrison ($3,800), Corey Dickeron ($3,600) and Mallex Smith (3,000) is going to be a core build of mine today!

If you like BvP then today is your lucky day as we get two of the best individual match-ups in baseball to exploit on this slate. Freddie Freeman ($3,200) is back for Atlanta and he is ready to take on his friend Mr. Strasburg who he is 14 for 38 with 4 home runs against! Bryce Harper ($4,800) meanwhile gets to face off with Julio Teheran, a pitcher he is 16 for 36 with 7 home runs against.

I know that BvP is something many DFS players scoff at but when you get hitters in division match-ups against arms they have massive sample size against, you need to pay attention and Freeman and Harper are two bats I will have heavy exposure to on the Early Slate!

Slate Overview:

The Early Slate is relatively simple for me as you need to decide between Strasburg or Nola at pitcher – I simply see no reason to get cute here. By taking Nola you have the salary savings to build a much better offensive roster and as noted, he has the elite upside against a high strikeout team to put up a score that could easily surpass the Nationals “ace.” From a hitting perspective, the Rays stack will be at the core of my roster build and I will utilize the Harper/Freeman BvP history to fill in two elite bats around that stack!

Next: DraftKings MLB Picks - Early Slate

Best if luck in your FanDuel MLB contests and stay tuned to Fantasy CPR for all the late breaking lineup news and roster updates!