FanDuel MLB Daily Picks and Pivots – July 8 Main Slate
Welcome to the Saturday FanDuel MLB edition of Picks and Pivots, a fantasy baseball column focused on helping you find the best core lineup for today’s Main Slate DFS action!
For those of you finding us for the first time, the concept behind FanDuel MLB Picks and Pivots is to first identify key building blocks that can be used for any roster construction and then identify pivot points to help differentiate your lineup in hopes of a big payday!
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Friday’s winning GPP scores were well above our season average as it took 302.6 FanDuel points to take down a tournament! Over the first 102 slates of the FanDuel MLB season, the average winning score to take down a GPP has been 263.7 points. Looking back at last season, the winning GPP lineup on average scored 255 FanDuel points with a typical roster build that allocated 25% of your salary cap to your SP and the remaining 75% to your hitters.
Over the first 102 slates of the FanDuel MLB season, the average winning score to take down a GPP has been 263.7 points.
Friday’s Main Slate was incredibly high scoring and the Picks and Pivots plays from Thursday were routinely found across the winning line-ups! Jesus Aguilar, our $2.1K punt play went off for 57.9 FanDuel points on the back of a two home run 7 RBI day and Max Scherzer delivered 41 FD points with a 10K performance against the Braves. The Indians middle infield combination of Jason Kipnis and Francisco Lindor combined for 64 FanDuel points as well helping our core line-ups land above the cash lines!
Each day we will break down our top Starting Pitcher and our top hitting stacks of the day while giving you our thoughts on roster build and lineup construction.
If you missed the Early Slate breakdown from Picks and Pivots – you can find it here!
As always, we will look to update our picks and final lineup thought prior to lock on our twitter account @FantasyCPR so make sure to give us a follow for all the late breaking lineup news.
Without further ado, let’s get into today’s slate!
FanDuel MLB – Top Starting Pitcher Pick:
Mike Clevinger ($7,600): In his last start, Clevinger was our featured arm in Picks and Pivots as his dominant strikeout ability combined with a match-up against a right-handed heavy Tigers team seemed to align perfectly. In that start Clevinger went out, struck out 7 Tigers, giving up only 1 ER on his way to 46 FanDuel points, his second straight outing with that DFS total!
Today Clevinger gets a home start against that very same Detroit Tigers squad and at only $7,600 on a night with Coors and Chase Field in play – this is the no-brainer spot to start at pitcher.
Clevinger’s splits show incredible dominance against right-handed bats as he has a 30% K rate while givng up only 0.8 HR/9. On the season, Clevinger has a 14.2% swinging strike rate which is the highest such mark of any pitcher in action across MLB today which gives us the strikeout upside we need for GPP play in DFS.
Again, on a night where we want to pay up for bats we can lock in Clevinger and still get $3,400 per batter in our roster. I simply cannot pass on this combination of strikeout upside and value especially when it is against a line-up he just proved he could put up big time scores against. The pitching on this slate does not have any truly “dominant ace” unless you consider Jake Arrieta a fantasy baseball ace (I do not) so dropping down in price and capturing K upside will be the best way to approach the Main Slate.
FanDuel MLB – Top Hitting Stacks:
Offense, offense and more offense. With games in Coors Field, Chase Field and Arlington you simply are not winning tonight unless you focus on the right batters/stacks to build around. The reality is that the Rockies/Diamondbacks/Rangers are all in great spots so building mini-stacks to spread your exposure may be the best bet with all three teams having run projections of 5.2 or more tonight!
Diamondbacks versus Luis Castillo: One of the reasons I was so heavy on Arizona last night is that the price points were simply deflated too much to where I could easily stack them with a Scherzer based line-up and tonight we have the ability to utilize the same soft pricing!
The sample size on Castillo is small as he only has 16 innings at the major league level but this is a guy giving up 2.8 HR/9 and 31% hard contact with equal success from hitters on both sides of the plate. Rather than simply list off the best plays I plan to utilize the Diamondbacks in such a way to maximize how they fit in with the overall slate.
What I mean by that is although I love Jake Lamb ($3,800) on this slate we have other (better) options at 3B so I want to make sure I use Arizona where I think the positions are weakest. For me that starts in two specific spots – 1B with Paul Goldschmidt ($4,100) and SS with Chris Owings ($2,900). You can easily make a full stack by using two OF’s like A.J. Pollock ($3,500) and David Peralta ($2,900) are remain at value price points which allow us the ability to stack and still get high upside plays elsewhere.
The reason I will not be playing Jake Lamb tonight is that we have Nolan Arenado ($4,700) at home against a left-hander in Jose Quintana. Quintana on the season has been death to left-handers (which hurts Blackmon/CarGo) as he has a 24% hard contact rate and 0.4 HR/9 to LHB this season. Right-handers however are another story (Trevor possibly), as he has given up 1.4 HR/9 with 32% hard contact. Salary is not an issue tonight and locking in Arenado should be the first thing you do in all formats!
Rangers versus Jesse Chavez: The Rangers actually have the highest projected run total on this slate and that fact may get a bit overlooked with everyone focused on Coors/Chase. Chavez is a pitcher who gives up a ton of hard contact and home runs (2.4HR/9 in fact to right-handed batters) so the Rangers hitters make for an interesting way to build around the Rockies/Diamondbacks tonight.
Rougned Odor ($3,600) is my favorite play as he helps fill a weak 2B position and you can utilize a guy like Jonathan Lucroy ($2,500) at catcher to help fulfill that position against the reverse splits nature of Chavez.
FanDuel MLB – Sample GPP Line-Up and Slate Overview:
P: Mike Clevinger ($7,600)
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C: Jonathan Lucroy ($2,500)
1B: Paul Goldschmidt ($4,100)
2B: Rougned Odor ($3,600)
3B: Nolan Arenado ($4,700)
SS: Chris Owings ($2,900)
OF: A.J. Pollock ($3,500)
OF: David Peralta ($3,100)
OF: Nomar Mazara ($3,000)
Slate Overview: The Main Slate is all about offense so spending up for the right bats will be critical tonight. At Starting Pitcher, Mike Clevinger’s price is simply too low considering the upside and his strikeout ability makes him a no brainer for GPP play. Offensively, I think it makes sense to spread out your exposure and build mini-stacks with the Rockies/Rangers/Diamondback hitters picking the best player at each position around the diamond from that pool of players!
Next: FanDuel MLB Picks and Pivots _ Early Slates
Best of luck in your FanDuel MLB contests and stay tuned to Fantasy CPR for all the late breaking lineup news and roster updates!