Fantasy Baseball 2017: First-half winners and losers
By Bill Pivetz
With the first half in the books, let’s take a look at some of the fantasy baseball winners and losers. Who surprised us and who let us down?
This has been one crazy fantasy baseball season, and it’s just the first half. I feel like that could be said about last year, and the year before, and yadda yadda yadda. With the injuries, slow and hot starts and more injuries, fantasy owners have had to call an audible more than once.
There have been some early draft picks that have let us down in more than one way. On the other hand, there are some late picks or undrafted players that have been key to your team’s success so far.
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There is still a second half to play and things could even themselves out by October. This is a good time so analyze your team needs and see what moves need to be made. Should you see that hot starter or hope it continues in the first half? What about your struggling third-round pick? How long can you keep them on your team?
This piece will talk about the least and most valuable hitters and pitchers. The LVPs need to have an ADP of Round 5 or above. MVPs, or biggest surprises, should have an ADP below the 18th round.I choose those rounds because you expect your top picks to perform highly and the late picks not to and be cut in a month.
I choose those rounds because you expect your top picks to perform highly and the late picks not to and be cut in a month.
I want to mention Greg Holland as an MVP. No one knew what to expect from him coming off of Tommy John surgery. As the Colorado Rockies’ closer, he has a 1.39 ERA and 28 saves. Holland was drafted in the 22nd round in ESPN leagues and is the fourth-best closer on the Player Rater.
Travis Shaw, undrafted, is a big surprise this season. He is hitting .296 with 18 home runs, 61 RBI and 48 runs scored. Shaw is making the most of his opportunities hitting in the middle of the Milwaukee lineup. He is now owned in 86 percent of leagues.
If there was ever a first-half disappointment, Carlos Gonzalez is the guy this year. As a fourth-round pick, I know first hand how bad he’s been so far.
CarGo is hitting .217 with six home runs, 22 RBI and 37 runs. He has missed time with a shoulder injury. Yet, playing half his games in Colorado means nothing to him apparently.
His teammates Charlie Blackmon, Mark Reynolds and Nolan Arenado don’t seem to have a problem. Unfortunately for Gonzalez owners, you drafted the wrong Rockies hitter. He is also losing playing time to Raimel Tapia, especially against lefties.
If you are trying to move on from CarGo, good luck. His value couldn’t be any lower. You are stuck with him likely until the end of the year. If he does improve, other owners won’t buy it.
Honorable mention: Miguel Cabrera (DET)
There are two hitters I want to mention for this award. One is leading the league in home runs and the other is brought his power over from South Korea.
The first is Aaron Judge. With a 209.0 ADP, no one, or at least I didn’t, expected Judge to hit the ball with this much power this early in the season. He has 30 home runs, 66 RBIs, 75 runs and a .330 average. He is on a six-game hit streak with three multi-hit games in that span. The Yankees lineup is a little beat up right now but Judge seems to the one constant so far.
Eric Thames burst back onto the MLB scene in April. He has since quieted down but still has 23 homers, 43 RBIs and 55 runs scored. As a 22nd round pick, owners looking for power knew to target Thames late.
Thames has struggled against left-handed pitchers all season. He is hitting .214 against southpaws, which gives Jesus Aguilar more playing time. However, whenever Thames plays, the odds for a home run go way up.
Honorable mention: Cody Bellinger (LAD)
With this, I chose a starting pitcher. Closers are too vulnerable to change. Just look at all the closer moves in the first three months of the season. I also could have gone with Madison Bumgarner or Noah Syndergaard for their injuries, but that’s not fair to them.
I chose Jake Arrieta as my least valuable fantasy pitcher for the first half. He was drafted in the third round in ESPN leagues. So far, he has a 4.33 ERA, 1.30 WHIP and 8-6 record.
Arrieta’s ground ball rate is down seven percent, fly ball rate and HR/FB rates are up four percent. Opposing batters are also making great contact off of Arrieta, 29.5 hard hit and 49.1 medium hit rates. His 1.22 HR/9 is the highest since 2012.
He isn’t getting a lot of swings and misses either. I don’t see anything in Arrieta’s numbers that show an improvement coming in the second half. His 1.22 HR/9 is the highest since 2012. It starts with pitch control.
Honorable mention: Justin Verlander (DET)
If I didn’t pick Jason Vargas for this award, I shouldn’t pick anyone. He went undrafted but is the number nine starting pitcher on the Player Rater. Vargas has a 12-3 record, 2.26 ERA and 1.15 WHIP.
He is on a seven-start win streak. I usually don’t take wins into account because it relies on the team’s offense, however, in Vargas’ case, it’s something to make a note of
In those seven starts, Vargas has a 2.12 ERA, .259 opposing batting average, 25 strikeouts and 11 walks in 46.2 innings. While he isn’t striking out a lot, he is keeping opponents off the bases.
Vargas has seen an increase in his soft hit and decrease in hard hit rates. He is giving up a lot of line drives, 18.9 percent, and fly balls, 43.7 percent but the ball isn’t leaving the ballpark, 7.9 HR/FB rate.
His most recent start against the Seattle Mariners was just the second time all year he allowed more than three runs. Mr. Consistent is worth trading for if you need help in wins, quality starts or low ratio stats.
Honorable mention: Ervin Santana (MIN)
There are plenty of other hitters that have disappointed fantasy owners this season. Andrew McCutchen was not himself in the first two months. The injuries have made things even worse.
However, there have been fantasy gems added off the waiver wire. We’ve called a few of them out before they became household names. The second half is a good time to take a flyer on a prospect or buy low on a struggling player.
It’s been an upside down season but it comes with the territory. Let’s hope things right themselves in the second half.