FanDuel MLB Daily Picks and Pivots – Friday July 14
Welcome to the Friday FanDuel MLB edition of Picks and Pivots, a fantasy baseball column focused on helping you find the best core lineup for today’s Main Slate DFS action!
For those of you finding us for the first time, the concept behind FanDuel MLB Picks and Pivots is to first identify key building blocks that can be used for any roster construction and then identify pivot points to help differentiate your lineup in hopes of a big payday!
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Over the first 104 slates of the FanDuel MLB season, the average winning score to take down a GPP has been 263.5 points. Looking back at last season, the winning GPP lineup on average scored 255 FanDuel points with a typical roster build that allocated 25% of your salary cap to your SP and the remaining 75% to your hitters.
Over the first 104 slates of the FanDuel MLB season, the average winning score to take down a GPP has been 263.5 points.
Welcome back my friends from the All-Star Break where we were forced to endure four long days without DFS baseball. I hope that you all enjoyed some time away from the grind that can be daily fantasy baseball and got yourself ready for the home stretch. This hiatus was a good reminder that sometimes we need to step back, take a breath and remove ourselves from the FanDuel app but enough of that noise – we are back at it today and here to get you ready for Friday’s loaded DFS slate! After four days of being forced to watch HGTV with my wife and trying (and failing) at WNBA DFS, I am quite thankful to get back into the DFS sport I love the most – baseball baby!
Each day we will break down our top Starting Pitcher and our top hitting stacks of the day while giving you our thoughts on roster build and lineup construction.
As always, we will look to update our picks and final lineup thought prior to lock on our twitter account @FantasyCPR so make sure to give us a follow for all the late breaking lineup news.
Without further ado, let’s get into today’s slate!
FanDuel MLB – Top Starting Pitcher Pick(s):
One of the benefits of the All-Star Break was that we had the ability to see the Friday FanDuel slate days in advance and although we are still waiting on a handful of pitchers, we can get a great early feel for how this slate is going to play out. If there is one thing you should take away from this article, it is that the pricing on this slate is EXTREMELY soft and any time there is that much value on a slate this large we have the ability to dive into so many different roster builds!
Jacob deGrom ($10,900): Let me start with the highest priced pitcher on the slate as deGrom gets a home start against the Rockies. deGrom has the highest K rate on the slate at 28.4% with an elite 14% swinging strike rate and is pitching at home where he is typically un-hittable with a 30% K rate, .269 wOBA and 2.56 ERA.
What I really like about deGrom on this slate is his price – wait a second Brian, he is by far the highest priced arm on the slate isn’t he? Yes imaginary reader he is – which is EXACTLY why I like him in GPP’s. deGrom is $1,400 more than the next most expensive pitcher, meaning he sits in a price tier all his own that may lead to a depressed ownership level and as we spoke about there is more than enough value at hitter to make this work.
James Paxton ($9,200): One of the reasons I find myself really intrigued by this slate is the $8k-$9k price tier is really solid and with so many options at similar price points we can easily mix and match our starting pitchers within the same general roster build. As a player who plays 1-2 line-ups per night, I love when I can find slates like this where my core roster build can stay intact and I can simply pivot among a handful of starting pitchers.
The highest upside play in my opinion if you are staying in the price range is James Paxton, who gets a home start against the Chicago White Sox. Paxton has a27.2% K rate which is just a shade behind deGrom and comes into this game with a 30% K rate in three of his last four games. During his recent stretch, Paxton has racked up a 15% swinging strike rate flashing the dominant K upside we saw from him earlier this season.
In fact, out of his 14 starts this season, Paxton has a 30% of higher K rate in 8 of those starts which is a perfect representation of the boom or bust nature he possesses. Paxton is one of the few arms on this slate with 50+ FD point upside and although I do not love picking on the White Sox with lefties, the talent level here is such that for only $9.2K he makes for an exceptional GPP play on this slate!
One thing I do after writing out my picks is I will take a spin around the industry to see if there are nuggets that others have uncovered that I may have overlooked and there is a great one from Josh Cole of RotoGrinders. He noted “The White Sox been generous with the strikeouts lately, allowing 8+ strikeouts to five of the last eight left-handed starters they’ve faced (Chris Sale, Drew Pomeranz, J.A. Happ, Jordan Montgomery, Kyle Freeland).”
I dug into those game logs a bit more and even taking Sale out of the equation – look at these numbers:
- Pomeranz: 52 FanDuel Points and 8 K’s
- Happ: 48 FanDuel points and 9 K’s
- Montgomery: 52 FanDuel points and 8 k’s
- Freeland: 62 FanDuel points and 9 K’s
I am sold!
Want to save at SP? With so much value on this slate, I am not sure you really will “need” to drop down at SP but there are some intriguing options if you are so inclined. Gerrit Cole ($8,700) may have the name recognition fantasy baseball players look for but he has been an arm I have tended to pick ON rather than utilize as a DFS pitcher specifically due to his trouble with left-handed bats. Cole will face off with the Cardinals in Pittsburgh and although Matt Carpenter and Dexter Fowler worry me (BvP Alert), this is a match-up Cole has already tangled with twice this season, putting up 40 FanDuel points in both of those outings.
In his last two games before the break we saw Cole’s strikeout numbers tick up with 15 K’s over those two starts and a 25% and 31% K rate against the Giants and Phillies. What struck me in his recent starts is that he is becoming more reliant on his fastball, throwing it 60-65% of the time versus only 55% earlier this season.
The velocity on his fastball has been sitting at 96.5-97 MPH in those starts which is nearly 2 MPH faster than earlier this season so that uptick in velocity may be a key driver for the recent spike in his advanced strikeout metrics.
Cole is not as “sexy” as deGrom or Paxton but there is appeal with an arm that could deliver 40 FanDuel points at a price point that allows me to pick and choose the high-end stacks I want on this slate.
Pitching Summary: Since I wrote more than I normally do for pitcher (yes I missed DFS), let me summarize my thoughts. Pay up for SP on this slate – there is simply no reason to drop down in my opinion. The hitting pricing is super soft and the top end arms on this slate have the K upside we want and are in relatively good spots. If you can afford deGrom then he is my top choice but as I mentioned – the next tier is loaded with guys like Carlos Carrasco, Paxton, Cole or Jonny Cueto against the Padres. This is a great slate to build your core line-up and mix and match the pitchers in this price tier across multiple line-ups!
FanDuel MLB – Top Hitting Stacks:
Seattle Mariners versus James Shields: Scrolling through the pitchers on this slate the one arm that jumped off immediately to me was our good friend James Shields – that of the 2.5 HR/9 and 34% hard contact – who has given up 10 HR’s in 7 games this year after giving up 40 HR’s in 33 games last season.
So let’s click on the Mariners hitters and I am sure we will need to scroll up right? Hmm, scroll down…..keep scrolling…..once you hit Valuetown, USA you will see the glorious sweet spot that allows us to grab a high-end starting pitcher AND attack James Shields – God Bless America.
Nelson Cruz ($3,700) is the highest priced Mariner bat which feels like an absolute steal considering Shields is giving up 37% hard contact to right-handed bats this season. Robinson Cano ($3,200) is 37 for 90 in his career against Sheilds, good for a .411 average including 5 home runs and can be paired with a criminally under-priced Kyle Seager ($2,500) who is 7 for 17 with 3 home runs!
Tampa Bay Rays versus Ricky Nolasco: One of the reasons I waited to write this article was because I wanted to see who the Angels would pitch against one of my favorite DFS teams to stack. Apparently it is my birthday or Christmas because we get the glorious news that Ricky Nolasco is on the mound!
Nolasco is a multi-home run threat (in a bad way) every time he takes the mound as he has given up 2.2 HR/9 with a 38% hard contact rate on the season. The Rays are one of my absolute favorite teams to stack with Nolasco being equally hittable from both sides of the plate we can simply look for our favorite plays here regardless of splits!
Logan Morrison ($3,500) and Corey Dickerson ($3,500) are THE plays from the left-sode of the plate but do not overlook Steven Souza Jr. ($3,200) and Wilson Ramos ($2,800) if you want to build a full on stack for the Rays. Although the sample size is small, it is worth noting that Souza is 3 for 6 with 2 home runs against Nolasco in his career.
New York Yankees against Drew Pomeranz: Pomeranz is an arm I have looked to target throughout the year as he has an elevated hard contact rate ( 40% to lefties and 32% to righties) and has to unenviable task of taking on the Yankees in Fenway Park. I expect Aaron Judge ($4,800) to be massively popular after his home run derby explosion so I will let others chase that play and look to this game for some intriguing one off’s. Gary Sanchez ($3,200) has seen his price come down to a reasonable level which is great for those of us trying to figure out catcher each night on FanDuel! Didi Gregorious ($3,000) may be my favorite play on the Yankees however as the lefty/lefty match-up is one he actually thrives in and he is 6 for 11 in his career against Pomeranz to boot!
FanDuel MLB – Sample GPP Line-Up and Slate Overview
Please Note: This is NOT an optimized line-up, it is simply illustrative to show the type of roster build we can have using the logic previously laid out in Picks and Pivots. My actual line-up may differ from the line-up shown here.
P: Gerrit Cole ($8,700)
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C: Wilson Ramos ($2,800)
1B: Logan Morrison ($3,500)
2B: Robinson Cano ($3,200)
3B: Kyle Seager ($2,500)
SS: Jean Segura ($3,800)
OF: Nelson Cruz ($3,700)
OF: Steven Souza ($3,200)
OF: Corey Dickerson ($3,500)
Slate Overview: First off, it was amazing to be back writing this and I simply cannot wait for Friday’s slate. Ultimately this is a slate where the value is so incredibly obvious across the board that we should be able to load up on high upside bats and still get the high end arms we want. Enjoy the fact we have baseball back in our lives and at least wait until 7:10PM EST to start your DFS tilt on Twitter! Welcome back to Picks and Pivots – let’s get it!
Best of luck in your FanDuel MLB contests and stay tuned to Fantasy CPR on Twitter for all the late breaking lineup news and roster updates!