FanDuel MLB Daily Picks and Pivots – Saturday July 15
Welcome to the Saturday FanDuel MLB edition of Picks and Pivots, a fantasy baseball column focused on helping you find the best core lineup for today’s Main Slate DFS action!
For those of you finding us for the first time, the concept behind FanDuel MLB Picks and Pivots is to first identify key building blocks that can be used for any roster construction and then identify pivot points to help differentiate your lineup in hopes of a big payday!
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Friday night’s Main Slate winning GPP scores were right above our season average as it took 271.5 FanDuel points to take down a tournament! Over the first 105 slates of the FanDuel MLB season, the average winning score to take down a GPP has been 263.6 points. Looking back at last season, the winning GPP lineup on average scored 255 FanDuel points with a typical roster build that allocated 25% of your salary cap to your SP and the remaining 75% to your hitters.
Over the first 105 slates of the FanDuel MLB season, the average winning score to take down a GPP has been 263.6 points.
Having DFS baseball back in our lives on Friday Night was a beautiful thing and we get another loaded Main Slate on Saturday Night which is unusual for Saturday’s as we typically get a larger day slate of games. The winning GPP lines on Friday had one common theme – they went with a no stack, one-off play approach as they took a home run hunting approach and paired it with any of the top end arms on the slate! The concept of stacking is a popular one but this slate was a great reminder of where picking the best one-off plays can pay off in a big way!
Each day we will break down our top Starting Pitcher and our top hitting stacks of the day while giving you our thoughts on roster build and lineup construction.
As always, we will look to update our picks and final lineup thought prior to lock on our twitter account @FantasyCPR so make sure to give us a follow for all the late breaking lineup news.
Without further ado, let’s get into today’s slate!
FanDuel MLB – Top Starting Pitcher Pick:
Corey Kluber ($11,500): Taking a spin around the Main Slate on Saturday there is one overwhelming theme – pitching, pitching and more pitching! On the second day out of the All-Star Break we not only get Max Scherzer and Corey Kluber on the mound but we get the return of Madison Bumgarner to boot!
In looking through these three top arms I could see a path where Bumgarner($11k) struggles in his return from injury and with Mad Max at $12.1k pitching in Great American Ballpark with his home run struggles, I could see a scenario where he falls short of returning value at this price point.
The one arm in this tier that I simply cannot avoid is Corey Kluber in a road start against Oakland which has the makings of another dominant DFS outing! Oakland has a 25.6% K rate against RHP this season which is the second highest mark in MLB and Kluber steps on the mound with an elite 33.8% and 15.5% swinging strike rate.
Kluber comes into tonight’s game with double-digit K’s in five of his last six games and 55+ FanDuel points in four of his last five outings while also being an absurd -170 road favorite!
On this slate we not only have three elite arms in Scherzer, Kluber and Bumgarner but the second tier of Alex Wood, Jimmy Nelson, Aaron Nola, Cole Hamels, Jake Arrieta, Jameson Taillon, Felix Hernandez and Danny Duffy is so solid that pitching simply is going to run this slate.
With that narrative in mind, it will be harder to find “can’t miss” offensive spots so paying up for your ace on a one pitcher site like FanDuel is my preferred roster build. If you are paying for pitching then I would simply pay all the way up and lock in Kluber tonight in the best pure match-up that any of the high-end arms have this evening!
FanDuel MLB – Top Hitting Stacks:
Tampa Bay Rays versus J.C. Ramirez: As I mentioned in the open, stacking offenses is not always a necessary roster build and with so many elite arms on the slate tonight it may make sense to take a less stack heavy approach tonight.
The one offense however that stands out to me tonight is the Tampa Bay Rays – which if you read Picks and Pivots often will certainly not surprise you. My name is Brian Tulloch and I have a Tampa Bay Rays stacking problem.
Ramirez on the season is giving up 46% hard contact, 2.4 HR/9 and has only a 17% K rate against left-handed bats this season which sets up perfectly for a left-handed power hitting line-up like the Rays.
The Rays are a team that tends to get a bit over-looked by the masses in DFS and we saw last night that all the key Tampa Bats were less than 10% owned in large field GPP’s. Considering that they only managed to put up 2 runs against Ricky Nolasco (thanks guys), I do not expect a sudden surge in ownership here.
Logan Morrison ($3,600) and Corey Dickerson ($3,500) are the core plays here but the one bat I am most interested in from a GPP perspective is Brad Miller ($3,100) who has hit safely in every single game since his return from the DL, going 5 for 13 with 4 RBI’s, 2 doubles and 1 home run.
New York Mets versus Tyler Chatwood: One of the things I pride myself on as a fantasy sports writer is that I take stands on DFS picks and back it up with advanced metrics and statistics. It is easy for people to say – I love player X – but without numbers behind it it becomes difficult for me to get on board.
That being said – all the metrics would say to avoid attacking Tyler Chatwood as he has a near 60% ground ball rate on the road while only giving up 26% hard contact and 1.1 HR/9 this season.
However here I am recommending my favorite baseball team as a potential stack tonight. The reason here is simple – its price points relative to upside. Think about it this way – the Mets have one of the most dangerous line-ups when they are clicking (and we saw them drop 14 runs on Jon Gray last night) and I can grab any of Michael Conforto ($3,100), Jay Bruce ($3,400) or Yoenis Cespedes ($3,100) at price points that allow you to roster their elite upside within a Kluber based line-up.
The Mets have a middle of the road team total but with 80+ degree temperatures with 9-10 MPH winds blowing out to right-field this could be a spot where we can grab high-end power bats at criminally low ownership. Chatwood is simply not a guy I expect people will pick on but the reality is we have very few of those arms on this slate so I am fine taking a chance with a low-owned secondary stack full if elite power hitters like the Mets order allows us to do!
FanDuel MLB – Sample GPP Line and Slate Overview:
Please Note: This is NOT an optimized line-up, it is simply illustrative to show the type of roster build we can have using the logic previously laid out in Picks and Pivots. My actual line-up may differ from the line-up shown here.
P: Corey Kluber ($11,500)
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C: Chris Herrmann ($2,200)
1B: Logan Morrison ($3,600)
2B: Brad Miller ($3,100)
3B: Kyle Seager ($2,600)
SS: Jose Reyes ($2,300)
OF: Corey Dickerson ($3,500)
OF: Yoenis Cespedes ($3,100)
OF: Michael Conforto ($3,100)
Slate Overview: The name of today’s slate is pitching – simply find a way to pay up for the top end arms and do not get cute. From a hitting perspective the only stack I plan to have at the core of my line-ups is the Tampa Bay lefties but the Mets offense allows you an intriguing secondary stack that will be low owned. Do not be afraid to plug and play one off’s on this slate like Klye Seager who gets an elite match-up against Mike Pelfrey and sits at a bargain price point!
Best of luck in your FanDuel MLB contests and stay tuned to Fantasy CPR on Twitter for all the late breaking lineup news and roster updates!