Why Drafting a Fantasy Football QB in Later Rounds Makes Sense
Fantasy Football: Contrary to popular belief…
There is no understating how valuable it is to have upper-echelon quarterbacks on your fantasy football team. Those guys like Aaron Rodgers, Drew Brees, and Tom Brady are always good for twenty points a week. But when we look at the rest of the quarterback field, it’s evident that the total points on the season isn’t as wide of a margin as you’d expect.
Looking at ESPN’s scoring leaders in fantasy football last season, five of the top ten quarterbacks in total points scored were drafted in the 10th round or later:
#2 Matt Ryan (ATL) – undrafted
#5 Kirk Cousins (WAS) – 2nd pick of the 10th
#6 Dak Prescott (DAL) – 6th pick of the 12th
#7 Matthew Stafford (DET) – 4th pick of the 11th
#9 Tyrod Taylor (BUF) – 12th pick of the 9th
(ADP taken from FantasyFootballCalculator.com)
What this means for your fantasy team
It needs to be pointed out that quarterbacks like Matt Ryan and Kirk Cousins are projected to be drafted earlier than they were in 2016. Matt Ryan is projected as the 11th pick of the 5th round, and Kirk Cousins projected as the 7th pick of the 8th round.
There’s absolutely nothing wrong with taking these quarterbacks early. But by taking a Matthew Stafford (10.09 current ADP) or a Dak Prescott (9.12 current ADP), you can insulate your roster with depth and get more positional value. Instead of taking a Drew Brees in the fourth round, you can snag a Doug Martin, Jordan Reed, or a Martavis Bryant. These skill position players are much harder to come by in the later rounds. It is better to get a 10th round quarterback and build a roster with high ceiling players.
Three quarterbacks to take in the late round
I’ve established the importance of drafting a late round QB and taking advantage of other owners’ mishaps. I’m going to highlight three quarterbacks that will make a significant impact on your team. Not by posting the highest QB totals, but by giving you stability to go and get those big names receivers and running backs.
Fantasy Football Late Round QB’s:
Andy Dalton
Currently projected in the 12th round, Bengals QB Andy Dalton is coming off a top 12 finish last season. He is looking to build upon his 2016 campaign. With rookie speed demon John Ross coming in from Washington, and top five receiver AJ Green coming back healthy, Dalton has the weapons around him to put up top ten numbers. Not to mention rookie Joe Mixon flashing brilliance as a pass catcher paired with Tyler Eifert, the red zone maniac, his touchdown totals should be near a career high. The TCU product can be safely taken in the 12th round without worry.
Matthew Stafford
Matthew Stafford of the Detroit Lions is a gunslinger and he still hasn’t earned respect (Current ADP 10.09). Stafford just makes it work, even if he doesn’t have the most elite surroundings. Golden Tate, Marvin Jones, and Eric Ebron look to absorb the vast majority of targets. Add in Theo Riddick, as he will be handling the backfield targets. Stafford hasn’t had a season throwing under 4,250 yards and 22 TDS. He is finding himself in the top 12 year after year, yet always finds himself in the late rounds. Don’t make the mistake of not drafting Stafford, as the Lions’ game scripts will always support his gun-slingin’ ways.
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Eli Manning
He’s coming off a rough year as the QB22 overall. Then the Giants went and added an elite wide receiver in Brandon Marshall. He’ll be lining up across the field from a consensus top three wide receiver in Odell Beckham Jr. Sprinkle into the mix Sterling Shepard and the hope of an established run game with rising star Paul Perkins. With that, you have an offense primed for a big season. With Eli at the helm, he’s proved that he can put up monster numbers. In 2015, he threw for 4,432 yards with 35 touchdowns, further proving he’s got the history to back it up.
Pairing him up with two top 15 receivers makes him a true fantasy threat. At his current draft position as the top pick of the 11th round, I will happily wait until then to snag a potential top eight quarterback
Show Patience, Win Titles
It will be frightening when you’re in the fifth or sixth round and you see a run of quarterbacks go off the board. I’ve been there. But, if you trust your strategy and wait to snag one of the quarterbacks previously mentioned, you’ll be happy. There’s no risk associated with taking these picks, because if it doesn’t pan out, streaming quarterbacks is a viable option. On FantasyFootballers.com, they pointed out a stat that proves my point.
"In standard leagues, we saw 40 different QBs, including one-time wonders Matt Moore, Kevin Hogan, Jimmy Garoppolo, and Landry Jones, contribute a top 12 week. In 2015, we saw 40 as well including everybody’s favorites fantasy gunslingers: Geno Smith, Brandon Weeden, Matt Cassel, Kellen Moore and even Johnny Manziel."
Next: Three players that will outperform their ADP
It’s completely attainable to thrive in your league by following this late QB method. So, show patience, and win ‘ships. I’m out.