FanDuel MLB Daily Picks and Pivots – Sunday July 16
Welcome to the Sunday FanDuel MLB edition of Picks and Pivots, a fantasy baseball column focused on helping you find the best core lineup for today’s Main Slate DFS action!
For those of you finding us for the first time, the concept behind FanDuel MLB Picks and Pivots is to first identify key building blocks that can be used for any roster construction and then identify pivot points to help differentiate your lineup in hopes of a big payday!
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Saturday night’s Main Slate winning GPP scores were right above our season average as it took 278.2 FanDuel points to take down a tournament! Over the first 106 slates of the FanDuel MLB season, the average winning score to take down a GPP has been 263.7 points. Looking back at last season, the winning GPP lineup on average scored 255 FanDuel points with a typical roster build that allocated 25% of your salary cap to your SP and the remaining 75% to your hitters.
Over the first 106 slates of the FanDuel MLB season, the average winning score to take down a GPP has been 263.7 points.
Saturday Night’s Picks and Pivots breakdown landed on some big time spots and our core roster build landed well above the cash line in all formats as a result. Corey Kluber delivered 12 K’s and 53 FanDuel points to anchor out staff and ended up as the overwhelming chalk at 25% ownership in GPP’s. What made our lineups different is we avoided the chalk Cubs and instead loaded up on the Mets and Rays who were basically all under 10% ownership (except Michael Conforto). Although we went with the chalk pitcher, by having stacks that differed from the masses we were able to easily jump over the rest of the field as we got 20+ FanDuel point outings from Logan Morrison, Corey Dickerson, Jose Reyes and Jay Bruce!
Each day we will break down our top Starting Pitcher and our top hitting stacks of the day while giving you our thoughts on roster build and lineup construction.
As always, we will look to update our picks and final lineup thought prior to lock on our twitter account @FantasyCPR so make sure to give us a follow for all the late breaking lineup news.
Without further ado, let’s get into today’s slate!
FanDuel MLB – Top Starting Pitcher Pick:
Looking over the Main Slate pitching options there is not a single arm that jumps out to me as a “must have” on this slate which makes this a slate where I simply narrow down my choices to a handful of options and utilize the one that fits best into my overall roster build. This is also the kind of slate where I am going to pay attention to the industry buzz leading up to lock to try to understand where the chalk may be. With no “must have” arm, I will simply avoid the most popular options and pivot to alternate choices – so keep an eye on ownership and take a spin around the industry to get a gauge on where the popular choices may be!
I expect Yu Darvish ($9,900) and Carlos Martinez ($9,100) to be the most popular options as the price points are reasonable enough for two “name” pitchers but the reality is they face less than ideal match-ups as the Royals (20%) and Pirates (16%) are not teams that have a high enough K upside to warrant chasing the chalk.
Rich Hill ($8,800) comes into today’s match-up with the Marlins averaging 9K’s per outing over his last four trips to the mound and has a 12% or higher swinging strike rate in three of those four games! This is the spot I think will end up being the chalk as players game log watch and any time Rich Hill is chalk – I simply want out!
Jose Quintana ($8,500) is the arm in this “top price range” that I have the most interest in as he makes his first start since being traded to the Chicago Cubs. The match-up against the Orioles is one I expect most will avoid but the reality is the Orioles are a great team to target with LHP as they have a 25% K rate this season versus LHP which is 7th highest in all of baseball.
There is obviously risk here but the truth is that outside of Manny Machado and Jonathan Schoop, no hitter on Baltimore has an ISO higher than .180 this season versus LHP and as a team they sit at a .158 ISO.
If you are looking for a “safer” pivot – Zack Godley ($8,500) sits at the exact same price point and continues to be an over-looked fantasy difference maker for Atlanta. Godley has seven straight starts of 30+ FanDuel points, routinely racking up 6-7 K’s while consistently limiting the opponents run totals.
The ballpark in Atlanta and the fact that Freddie Freeman is back will likely lead to another deflated ownership day for Mr. Godley but this is a guy I will be all over again today if the masses stay away. Look at his recent run of starts – he has put up a swinging strike rate of 12% or more in seven straight starts and his elite 70% ground ball rate against lefties should be key in neutralizing the Braves big left-handed hitters.
FanDuel MLB – Top Hitting Stacks:
Reds versus Tanner Roark in Great American Ball Park: Looking over this slate initially I scrolled through the starting pitchers, saw Tanner Roark pitching in one of the top hitting environments in baseball, jotted it down and continued on my way. Once I was done with my initial research I went to look at the Vegas totals and assumed I would see the Reds offense at the top of the projected run totals but was shocked to see Vegas has them at only a 4.17 run total which is one of the lowest on the slate and 0.65 runs below their season average! Have they seen Roark pitch?
Roark on the season is giving up 1.93 HR/9 to left-handed batters and 33% hard contact and has given up 25 ER in his last 21 innings of work! With a .205 ISO and .373 wOBA allowed to left-handed bats, all the key lefties are in play here as a full on stack including Joey Votto ($4,000), Scooter Gennett ($3,200), Scott Schebler ($3,200) and punt catcher Tucker Barnhart ($2,100).
Washington Nationals versus Homer Bailey: Do not overlook the other side of this game as the Nationals get to face off with Homer Bailey in the same elite hitting environment. It is worth noting that Bailey is coming off two dominant performances in Colorado AND Arizona so he may not be the gas can we all assumed he would be!
In those two starts he was able to generate 10% swinging strike rates and only 20% hard contact so a full on stack may sink your lineups if he is able to generate a near 60% ground ball rate again today. Bryce Harper ($4,800) remains an elite play and can be paired as part of a 2-3 stack with the cheap value of Stephen Drew ($2,300) at shortstop!
Mariners versus Derek Holland: Derek Holland gets destroyed by right-handed hitters, giving up 40% hard contact and 2.2 HR/9 this season. Nelson Cruz ($4,100) is a right-handed hitter who crushes left-handed pitching. This one is simple – just play him today.
Kyle Seager ($2,800) has been on my rosters the last two days and with a lefty on this hill he may be over-looked today but Seager has exceptional BvP against Holland going 13 for 46 with 2 home runs in his career and allows for a nice mini-stack of the Mariners power bats in this elite spot!
FanDuel MLB – Sample GPP Line and Slate Overview:
Please Note: This is NOT an optimized line-up, it is simply illustrative to show the type of roster build we can have using the logic previously laid out in Picks and Pivots. My actual line-up may differ from the line-up shown here.
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P: Jose Quintana or Zack Godley ($8,500)
C: Tucker Barnhart ($2,100)
1B: Joey Votto ($4,000)
2B: Scooter Gennett ($3,200)
3B: Kyle Seager ($2,800)
SS: Stephen Drew ($2,300)
OF: Bryce Harper ($4,800)
OF: Nelson Cruz ($4,100)
OF: Scott Schebler ($3,200)
Slate Overview: This is a great GPP slate in my opinion as there is no clear arm that should drive ownership and roster construction so we should be free to pivot amongst some low-owned arms that have similar upside to the better names on the mound. Quintana and Godley will be the anchor to my staff and they allow me the cost savings to stack up elite hitters in three tremendous match-ups to give me the tournament upside I am seeking!
Best of luck in your FanDuel MLB contests and stay tuned to Fantasy CPR for all the late breaking lineup news and roster updates!