Is George Springer A Must Play On DraftKings July 17th?
By Mike Marteny
DraftKings MLB Picks For July 17
12 of the 13 games are in the main DraftKings tournament tonight. The Reds/Nationals matinee is only available in the all day tournament. A few really good options are taken out by that, but we still have plenty of places to spend money. Who are the best bets? Let’s check some stats!
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The money line yesterday was at 103.4 DraftKings points. Stacking Red Sox and Yankees ruined my night and Shark getting roughed up by the Padres didn’t help either.
The winning lineup was only at 177.3 DraftKings points. He spent big on pitchers with Chris Archer and David Price and hit big with Cory Spangenberg on only 5.5% ownership to take the prize.
These picks are based mostly on statistical analysis . If you have a gut feeling, then by all means, follow that. This is not an exact science. The best lineups usually have a mix of proven stats and hot players. Check out this post from Matt McGarvey for great tips about whether to use a hot player in DFS or not.
For you first time players, if you would like $10 worth of free entry tickets, use this link for the referral bonus! Then continue reading for tips on how to turn that $10 into more!
Next: DraftKings Lineup
P: Lance McCullers Jr. ($11,500): The Mariners are hitting a solid .244 against McCullers, but the good news ends there. They have just four runs in 86 at bats and a whopping 31 strikeouts. Ariel Miranda has also struggled against the Astros (honestly though, who hasn’t?), giving McCullers a great shot at the win. He has the greatest potential of the night tonight.
P: Chad Kuhl ($5,600): You may be saying huh? Doesn’t Kuhl have a 4.96 ERA this year? Yes he does. However, his ERA improves to 3.69. On top of that, the Brewers are only hitting .220 against Kuhl in 50 at bats with just a single run scored. That’s it. One. So what if he has only struck out ten? That means he has little margin for error, but he hasn’t needed it against Mikwaukee. Kuhl is a great way to save money, and he has a very nice matchup tonight.
C: Cameron Rupp ($3,200): Tom Koehler is back in the rotation. That can’t be good for the Marlins. I want some exposure here, but catcher is about the only position that I didn’t mind playing a Phillie at. Rupp is 2-10 with a walk, a double, and a pair of RBI against Koehler. Those numbers could improve tonight.
1B: Justin Bour ($4,500): Bour is 3-6 with a solo homer in his career against Jerad Eickhoff. Despite the reputation that Marlins Park has, Bour has hit .289 at home with 11 of his 20 homers there. This park can’t hold him. Can Eickhoff?
2B: Carlos Asuaje ($3,100): Asuaje has been batting second lately, so playing at Coors Field could really help him. It wont do much for his power since he has very little, but the outfield gaps are huge, so Asuaje could have a lot of room to run and score tonight.
3B: Nolan Arenado ($4,600): I want some exposure at Coors Field. I was going to stack Twins against whatever the Yankees throw out there, but when I realized that I could easily put together a Rockies mini stack, I pivoted. Arenado is 3-10 with two walks, two homers, three runs scored, and four RBI in his career against Luis Perdomo.
SS: Alcides Escobar ($3,000): Escobar is 3-10 with a double and a run scored against Jordan Zimmerman. That is nothing to write home about, but Escobar is off to a hot start in the second half so far. He is 4-9 with a homer, two RBI, and two runs scored in those three games. He looks like a strong play against Zimmerman.
OF: Charlie Blackmon ($5,600): Blackmon is also 3-10 against Perdomo, but he has had a little less success with the hits. Blackmon only has one homer and two RBI, but leading off for a potent offense that is back home against a questionable pitching staff has me willing to pay up.
OF: Jay Bruce ($4,500): Bruce is 13-44(.295) with five walks, two doubles, three homers, nine runs scored, and an impressive 11 RBI in his career against Adam Wainwright. Wainwright has struggled with lefty power, and they don’t get much more powerful than Bruce.
OF: Clint Frazier ($3,800): Adalberto Mejia has a 5.62 ERA in eight starts at Target Field in his rookie season. Given that information, every Yankee right hander is in play tonight even though many aren’t affordable. I elected to go with Rockies instead, but Judge and Sanchez are certainly worthy substitutes. Frazier is a nice addition at a very affordable price.
Next: DraftKings Lineup 2
P: Jon Lester ($9,800): Lester has held the Braves to a .238 average in 189 at bats with just two homers and eight runs scored to go with 49 strikeouts. Lester owns the platoon advantage over the Braves’ left handed power hitters. He also gets the added benefit of his lefties facing Julio Teheran, who has been destroyed by lefties. Lester is in great position for a win and quite a few strikeouts.
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P: Eduardo Rodriguez ($8,200): The Blue Jays are only hitting .192 against Rodriguez, but they have homered four times in 73 at bats and racked up 12 runs. There is risk involved here, but the Jays are a shadow of the offense that they were last year. His strikeout potential mitigates the damage. He struck out two Blue Jays in one inning against them this year.
C: Russell Martin ($3,500): Martin is 3-9 with four walks, a double, a homer, four runs scored, and three RBI in his career against Eduardo Rodriguez already. He is one of the few Jays to have any success on Rodriguez, so I have no issues taking him against my pitcher and hedging my bet.
1B: Mike Napoli ($4,100): Chris Tillman has a 7.90 ERA and a 2.14 WHIP. Those aren’t typos. His ERA is significantly better at home, but Camden Yards has been a launching pad this summer, and when 5.98 is considered much better, that’s a problem. Napoli is 8-29(.276) with five walks, two doubles, a homer, and five RBI in his career against Tillman. On top of that, Napoli is finally starting to come around. He has five homers in his last ten games.
2B: Ian Kinsler ($3,200): Kinsler is 19-59(.322) with three walks, seven doubles, two homers, eight runs scored, and six RBI in his career against Jason Vargas. The tough part for Detroit will be that Vargas has a 1.84 ERA in nine home starts. Can he hold up even though he has started to struggle on the road? I will find out since Kinsler is so cheap.
3B: Adrian Beltre ($4,100): Beltre is 7-15(.467) with two doubles, a homer, three runs scored, and three RBI in his career against Chris Tillman. Tillman has been the worst pitcher with enough innings to qualify this season. The Rangers likely wont help those numbers any. It could be an early shower for Tillman once again.
SS: Francisco Lindor ($4,300): Lindor is 4-6 with a homer and two RBI in his career against Matt Moore already. Lindor does take a park hit here, and Moore has been very good at home, but Lindor’s shots aren’t cheapies. If you can’t afford Correa, Lindor is the way to go.
OF: George Springer ($5,600): The Astros are expensive, and history says they should be worth it. They has slugged eight homers against Ariel Miranda in just 86 at bats with 13 RBI. I am taking Springer because he has half of those home runs! They are all solo shots, but are you really going to complain if he “only” gets 14 DraftKings points? I didn’t think so.
OF: Justin Upton ($3,900): Upton is 3-6 with two homers and four RBI in his career against Jason Vargas. Vargas had a rough stretch heading into the break, so the correction to his early season dominance has begun. He could have some problems with all of the right handed power Detroit has tonight.
OF: Jabari Blash ($3,200): Blash has perhaps more power than anyone in the league, including Joey Gallo. Much like Gallo, he has had real issues making consistent contact. However, Blash is 5-12 with a homer and three RBI since his return to the majors with Hunter Renfroe out. I am definitely willing to take a chance on his awesome power at Coors Field for this price!
Next: FanDuel MLB Picks and Pivots
Good luck out there, and check out our picks for FanDuel baseball, along with our PGA picks. We also have plenty of NFL stuff to get you ready for football!