Should You Pay Up For Chris Sale On DraftKings July 21st?

SEATTLE, WA – JULY 20: Starter Luis Severino #40 of the New York Yankees delivers a pitch during the third inning of a game against the Seattle Mariners at Safeco Field on July 20, 2017 in Seattle, Washington. (Photo by Stephen Brashear/Getty Images) /

DraftKings MLB Picks For July 21

The Cubs and Cardinals have a matinee at Wrigley today, so there are “only” 14 games in the main DraftKings tournament today. There are a lot of pitchers worth using, but most of them come with a lofty price tag, so we have to get creative. Where are some bargain bats so we can pay for pitching? Let’s take a look!

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The money line last night was a modest 102.85 DraftKings points. My lineups all missed. The pitching was brutal everywhere except for Luis Severino, but my lack of Royals and Orioles/Rangers made it impossible to place.

The winning lineup was once again at 189.4 DraftKings points. The co-winners used Bumgarner with Severino, but had a Royals/Orioles stack for all their hitters.

These picks are based mostly on statistical analysis . If you have a gut feeling, then by all means, follow that. This is not an exact science. The best lineups usually have a mix of proven stats and hot players. Check out this post from Matt McGarvey for great tips about whether to use a hot player in DFS or not.

For you first time players, if you would like $10 worth of free entry tickets, use this link for the referral bonus! Then continue reading for tips on how to turn that $10 into more!

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BOSTON, MA – JULY 15: Chris Sale #41 of the Boston Red Sox pitches during the first inning against the New York Yankees at Fenway Park on July 15, 2017 in Boston, Massachusetts. (Photo by Rich Gagnon/Getty Images) /

P: Chris Sale ($13,400): I am apprehensive about paying this much for Sale with Wood $1,600 cheaper, but Sale’s strikeout potential makes him dominant. Sale has held the Angels to a .191 average in 94 at bats with two homers, nine runs, and 24 strikeouts. Those aren’t quite as good as we may expect, but Sale will go over 200 strikeouts on the season in this game. We aren’t even at the end of July yet! He has 46 strikeouts in three starts this month. Another alarming total is possible, so I am paying for that potential over Scherzer, who has struggled some against Arizona in his career.

P: Steven Matz ($7,100): There is a healthy amount of risk here considering that Matz has been pummeled in both of his home starts. However, Oakland is not a prolific offensive team. They have some right handed power, but Citi Field plays more as a pitcher’s park and is more kind to left handed power. Matz will hold the advantage there. His price is tempered because of what the Rockies did to him in his last start. I am going to take advantage of the bargain price against the mostly light hitting A’s.

C: Francisco Cervelli ($3,300): Jeff Hoffman has an alarming 6.44 ERA in 29.1 home innings, but has only allowed four home runs. The damage is done in the gaps. While Cervelli likely wont hit anything over the wall, gaps are kind of his thing. He could be a nice value at this price point.

1B: Jose Abreu ($3,700): Abreu is 5-14(.357) with a homer, three runs scored, and three RBI in his career against Ian Kennedy. The Sox have not been great against right handed pitching this year, but Kennedy has surrendered 19 homers in 17 starts, including ten in eight home starts. I will take a chance here since the White Sox are cheap across the board against a pitcher that is average at best.

2B: Yoan Moncada ($3,400): Moncada is cheap, and I have highlighted the struggles of Ian Kennedy pretty clearly. It is always a risk running a rookie out there, but Moncada has both power and speed, and could find a way to take advantage of both tonight. There is a reason that he was the highest rated prospect in the minors over the last two years. We may catch a glimpse of that tonight.

3B: Matt Davidson ($3,300): Davidson is 2-4 with a walk and a solo homer against Kennedy. He is also super cheap going against a pitcher with issues giving up homers.

SS: Trevor Story ($4,400): After a terrible start to the year, Story has picked it up lately. He is hitting .343 over his last ten games with 11 RBI. It is no coincidence that a lot of this has come on a Colorado homestand. That continues tonight with rookie Trevor Williams on the mound. The Rockies could put on an impressive power display again tonight.

OF: Gregory Polanco ($3,600): I touched on Hoffman not being burned by the long ball earlier. That makes Polanco particularly enticing because he has a lot of speed. Anything hit into the gap is going to be a problem for the Rockies. Many will be on the bigger Pittsburgh bats, but I am going for cheap exposure to this game.

OF: Max Kepler ($3,600): Kepler is 4-11(.364) with two walks, a double, two homers, four runs scored, and five RBI in his career against Anibal Sanchez. I don’t quite trust his newfound ability to pitch just yet, and Kepler is just too cheap to pass up tonight.

OF: Michael Brantley ($4,100): Brantley has only played one game against Marco Estrada. He came out of it with a single and a solo home run. I trust Cleveland’s offense more than Estrada right now, so I will take a crack at him.

Next: DraftKings Lineup 2

LOS ANGELES, CA – JUNE 24: Kike Hernandez #14 of the Los Angeles Dodgers hits an RBI single in the second inning against the Colorado Rockies at Dodger Stadium on June 24, 2017 in Los Angeles, California. (Photo by Stephen Dunn/Getty Images) /

P: Alex Wood ($11,800): Wood has been so dominant lately that if he pitched on any other team he would stick out. However, when you are on the same team as one of the best pitchers of all time, it’s easy for your accomplishments to go unnoticed. Such has been the case of Wood. He has allowed one run or less in 11 of his last 12 starts. Wood has a ridiculous 0.87 ERA over his last ten starts. His numbers are actually better than Clayton Kershaw‘s. He just strikes out a few less hitters. I’m not scared of the Braves, especially against lefties. Wood is likely the best pitcher of the night on a slate with at least three aces going. There are two pitchers priced higher than Wood. If there is such a thing as value at nearly $12,000, this is it.

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P: Alex Cobb ($7,900): Cobb likely doesn’t have a great chance at a win opposing Yu Darvish, but he has been brilliant at home this year. Cobb sports a 2.64 ERA at Tropicana Field and has only allowed five homers in 47.2 innings pitching. On top of that, this is a Texas team that struggled to score runs against the likes of Kevin Gausman, Wade Miley, and Dylan Bundy, all of whom have struggled lately. Cobb wont wow us with strikeouts, but he should get a quality start at the very least tonight.

C: Evan Gattis ($4,200): Gattis is 4-11 with a walk, a double, a homer, four runs scored, and two RBI in his career against Ubaldo Jimenez. It is hard to stack Astros when they are so expensive, but it is worth it to get at least a couple in your lineup against Ubaldo. They could score a lot of runs tonight.

1B: Victor Martinez ($3,600): Martinez is 12-37(.324) with three walks, two homers, five runs scord, and five RBI in his career against Ervin Santana. Santana is cooling off after a hot start, but the Tigers were shut down last night, and lack some punch after trading J.D. Ramirez. I’m not going with an all-out stack, but they have a good enough history to roll out a couple against Santana.

2B: Ian Kinsler ($4,100): Kinsler is 23-71(324) with five walks, six doubles, a triple, three homers, 12 runs scored, and eight RBI in his career against Santana. And Kinsler’s price dropped for tonight! I’ll take it!

3B: Todd Frazier ($3,700): Frazier had a nice debut in a Yankee uniform getting a hit and scoring a run. I’m chasing more of the same against Andrew Moore, who was hit hard his last time out. The Yankees are a good stack if you can afford them, but I am getting exposure on the cheap so I can play Wood.

SS: Enrique Hernandez ($3,900): Kike’s DraftKings price has finally reflected his dominance of lefties. He is 2-3 against Jaime Garcia in his career. Hernandez is no longer the value that he used to be, but he is a sure source of points with a left handed pitcher on the mound.

OF: Carlos Beltran ($4,200): Beltran has abused Ubaldo over the years. He is 10-28(.357) with four walks, a steal, three doubles, three homers, four runs scored, and seven RBI against Ubaldo. The Astros may have to have a funeral for Beltran’s running shoes next, but he still has enough power to take Ubaldo deep tonight.

OF: Andrew Benintendi ($3,900): I don’t have enough faith in the Red Sox offense to employ a full stack tonight against Ricky Nolasco, but I want some exposure. Nolasco has been really good and really bad this year. I have a feeling that tonight may be somewhere in between, but I want at least one Sox player just in case.

OF: Hunter Pence ($2,600): Pence is 6-23(.261) with two walks, a double, five runs scored, three steals and two RBI in his career against Trevor Cahill. Cahill’s splits aren’t as pronounced as teammate Jhoulys Chacin‘s are, but his ERA is much worse on the road as well. We saw Chacin get beat up a little last night. I wouldn’t be surprised if it happened tonight as well. Just in case it does, I am taking the too-cheap Pence.

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