FanDuel MLB Daily Picks and Pivots – Saturday July 22
Welcome to the Saturday FanDuel MLB edition of Picks and Pivots, a fantasy baseball column focused on helping you find the best core lineup for today’s Main Slate DFS action!
For those of you finding us for the first time, the concept behind FanDuel MLB Picks and Pivots is to first identify key building blocks that can be used for any roster construction and then identify pivot points to help differentiate your lineup in hopes of a big payday!
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Friday’s Main Slate winning GPP scores were just above our season average as it took 265.3 FanDuel points to take down a tournament! Over the first 112 slates of the FanDuel MLB season, the average winning score to take down a GPP has been 262.9 points. Looking back at last season, the winning GPP lineup on average scored 255 FanDuel points with a typical roster build that allocated 25% of your salary cap to your SP and the remaining 75% to your hitters.
Over the first 112 slates of the FanDuel MLB season, the average winning score to take down a GPP has been 262.9 points.
Friday’s Main Slate results were a reflection of the slate’s options as we had multiple routes to winning roster builds with so many great pitching options and elite hitting environments. Not shockingly the Coors Field bats were the keys to taking down a GPP as the Pirates erupted for 13 runs and when paired with arms like Chris Sale or Aaron Nola, who out up 55 FanDuel points, you had a recipe for a winning night!
Each day we will break down our top Starting Pitcher and our top hitting stacks of the day while giving you our thoughts on roster build and lineup construction.
As always, we will look to update our picks and final lineup thought prior to lock on our twitter account @FantasyCPR so make sure to give us a follow for all the late breaking lineup news.
Without further ado, let’s get into today’s slate!
FanDuel MLB – Top Pitching Picks:
Rich Hill ($9,200): Another day and another loaded Main Slate of pitching to sort through! I am a big believer in recency bias in DFS driving the narrative of roster decisions so one night after seeing Alex Wood get pummeled by the Braves (7 ER, 4 BB’s) I love the idea of going back to the well here with Rich Hill at home against the Braves!
Hill is a massive favorite (-234) and the Braves have the lowest implied team total on the slate at 3.24 runs which is 1.5 runs lower than their season average. Hill is not simply a “safe” cash game play as he has elite strike-out upside (28.4% K rate) which is the third highest K rate on the slate and comes into tonight with 9+ K’s in three straight contests.
The price point on Hill at only $9.2K is reasonable enough where we can still fit $3.2k per batter and on a slate with a ton of hitting ( nine teams have 5+ projected run total) I think its critical you have the salary allotted to pay up for hitters.
Chris Archer ($10,300) is the top priced arm on this slate and at only $1.1K more than Hill will likely be the highest owned arm tonight as he is pitching at home where he is typically dominant. Archer is a massive -200 favorite and will face off with a Rangers team that has a 24% K rate, a top 5 mark on this slate so the upside is very real with Archer and makes for a scary fade.
Archer checks all the boxes when we look for a DFS pitcher, he has a 29% K rate and 13% swinging strike rate – both marks would be top 3 options on this slate. Additionally, Archer has struck out 36 of 97 (37% K rate) Rangers bats in his career so the match-up is one we can feel comfortable using Archer.
Ultimately I think this is a slate where paying up for pitching is critical and the price points on Archer/Hill is reasonable enough where we can lock in an elite K arm in a favorable match-up and still pay up for bats!
FanDuel MLB – Top Hitting Stacks
As I mentioned, we have nine teams with projected run totals of 5 or more so getting high-end offensive exposure is going to be critical to landing above the cash line today.
Arizona Diamondbacks versus Tanner Roark: One night after Arizona dropped 5 ER’s on Mad Max, they get to face Tanner Roark in Chase Field – yes please! Roark on the season has given up 1.8 HR/9 to left-handed batters and a 33% hard contact and has given up 6 or more ER in three of his last six starts so the blow up risk is something that is very real and makes him a great stack against candidate.
Jake Lamb ($3,900), David Peralta ($3,500), and Chris Herrman ($2,300) are my top three targets here as they get the platoon advantage but any and all Arizona bats are in play here against one of my favorite pitchers to pick on!
Tampa Bay Rays versus Andrew Cashner: Cashner is a pitcher that many DFS gamers like to stack against but the reality is he that he is better at run prevention than many realize having given up more than 1 HR in only one outing this season.
The issue Cashner has is with left-handed bats and the metric that really jumps out to me is his 11% K rate versus a 12% walk rate. When you combine the elevated walk rate with a 33% hard contact rate, this is a sneaky spot for the Rays power bats and will be a stack I hope flies under the radar!
Logan Morrison ($3,500), Brad Miller ($3,000) and Corey Dickerson ($3,200) are my top three plays here but I do not mind the idea of pairing them with a bat like Steven Souza ($3,600) and look to attack this game with a full on stack. Because Cashner has been able to limit the damage with home runs, you are really looking for a stack here that takes advantage of his walk rate in hopes the Rays can string together big innings via hits/walks.
FanDuel MLB – Sample GPP Line-Up and Slate Overview:
Please Note: This is NOT an optimized line-up, it is simply illustrative to show the type of roster build we can have using the logic previously laid out in Picks and Pivots. My actual line-up may differ from the line-up shown here.
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P: Rich Hill ($9,200)
C: Chris Herrmann ($2,300)
1B: Logan Morrison ($3,500)
2B: Brad Miller ($3,000)
3B: Jake Lamb ($3,900)
SS Chris Owings ($2,800)
OF: David Peralta ($3,500)
OF: Corey Dickerson ($3,200)
OF: Steven Souza ($3,600)
Slate Overview: My perspective on this slate is simply – pay up for pitcher as we have a variety of high upside arms at relatively cheap price points which still allows you the ability to load up on elite offenses facing off against mediocre pitchers!
Best of luck in FanDuel MLB contests and stay tuned to Fantasy CPR for all the late breaking lineup news and roster updates!