DraftKings MLB Picks August 1: Do We Dare Fade Scherzer or Sale?

HOUSTON, TX – JULY 31: Lucas Duda #21 of the Tampa Bay Rays, right, high fives Corey Dickerson #10 after hitting a home run in the third inning against the Houston Astros as Adeiny Hechavarria #11 also scores at Minute Maid Park on July 31, 2017 in Houston, Texas. (Photo by Bob Levey/Getty Images) /

DraftKings MLB Picks For August 1

We have a full 15 game slate tonight, and two of the best in the business take the mound tonight. Are either of them worth paying up for on DraftKings? Do we have better options at lower price points so we can use hitters against some weak pitchers out there? Let’s check out some stats!

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The money line last night was at 111.25 points last night. My lineup with Hamels and Luis Severino made it easily, thanks to Corey Dickerson and Lucas Duda staying hot. The other lineup missed in large part because of Michael Fulmer.

The winning lineup was at 218.2 DraftKings points. He used Marco Estrada with Severino and stacked cheap Astros to take it home.

These picks are based mostly on statistical analysis. If you have a gut feeling, then by all means, follow that. This is not an exact science. The best lineups usually have a mix of proven stats and hot players. Check out this post from Matt McGarvey for great tips about whether to use a hot player in DFS or not.

For you first time players, if you would like $10 worth of free entry tickets, use this link for the referral bonus! Then continue reading for tips on how to turn that $10 into more!

Next: DraftKings Lineup

TORONTO, ON – MAY 29: Marcus Stroman #6 of the Toronto Blue Jays delivers a pitch in the first inning during MLB game action against the Cincinnati Reds at Rogers Centre on May 29, 2017 in Toronto, Canada. (Photo by Tom Szczerbowski/Getty Images) /

P: Marcus Stroman ($11,000): The Indians are hitting .249 with four homers and 21 runs in 193 at bats against Chris Sale. He has been so brilliant this year that he is hard to fade, but seeing what the struggling Marco Estrada did to the White Sox last night means that Stroman should get close enough to Sale’s production to warrant the fade. Same with Max Scherzer. The Marlins are hitting .259 with nine homers and 26 RBI against Scherzer in 205 at bats. Those are number that I want from my anchor. Meanwhile, the White Sox are hitting only .212 against Stroman in 33 at bats. They do have three homers, but only five runs and nine strikeouts. I like the chances that Stroman keeps close enough to Sale and Scherzer that I am electing to save some money and spend up on hitters.

P: Jhoulys Chacin ($7,300): Chacin has been money at home this year. He has a 2.05 home ERA this season with two or fewer earned runs allowed in eight of the last nine at Petco Park. Now he gets a Twins team that is in a free fall right now. Don’t let the price fool you. Chacin is not quite an elite play since he doesn’t strike out many batters, but he will give you a nice score tonight.

C: Russell Martin ($3,900): I originally started out with a Blue Jays stack against Mike Pelfrey, but scrapped it due to perceived high ownership. I am stacking a different direction tonight, but I still want Martin in there. He is batting second for the Jays. While Jose Bautista is struggling leading off, Martin is raking behind him. He is also 4-7 lifetime against Pelfrey.

1B: Tommy Joseph ($3,900): Stacking against the volatile Ricky Nolasco has been fruitful for many a DFS player this year. The good news is that the Phillies remain cheap here despite them averaging six runs per game since the All Star Break. I definitely want some key pieces of the Philadelphia lineup here!

2B: Cesar Hernandez ($3,900): Hernandez will likely be leading off against Nolasco. He is perfect against him in his career with three singles and two runs scored. Expect a similar stat line tonight!

3B: Mike Moustakas ($5,200): Moose’s price is finally matching his production. In most instances, that will chase me away, but Dylan Bundy has been awful over the last six weeks. He has given up five or more runs in five of his last seven starts. Camden Yards has been a hitter’s paradise this summer. That has something to do with Bundy’s struggles, but it isn’t the whole reason. Until he gets back on track, stacking the team opposing him is always an option.

SS: Didi Gregorius ($4,100): Gregorius is 3-8 with a walk, a homer, two runs scored, and two RBI in his career against Anibal Sanchez. I would use Matt Holliday if there weren’t so many good options at first base today, but Gregorius is one I really want in there. Considering the Yankees trampled Michael Fulmer last night, stacking against Sanchez may be a very fruitful play.

OF: Seth Smith ($3,600): I know, Smith is a chalk play. That’s alright. I need some salary relief, and he is 9-27 with two walks, four doubles, a homer, four runs scored, and three RBI in his career against Ian Kennedy. I will find separation elsewhere.

OF: Brandon Moss ($3,600): Moss has only faced Bundy twice in his career. He hit a homer off of him. Bundy has given up 14 homers in his last ten games. You can bet someone in powder blue will hit one out tonight, and he will likely be a left handed batter. Moss and Moose are the better bets.

OF: Nick Williams ($3,400): I still don’t know how Williams has remained this cheap. He has been a key piece of the Philadelphia offensive revolution, scoring seven and driving in ten since the break. He only has one homer in that span, but we will forgive that if he keeps churning out crooked numbers!

Next: DraftKings Lineup 2

PHILADELPHIA, PA – JULY 21: Pitcher Aaron Nola #27 of the Philadelphia Phillies delivers a pitch during the second inning of a game against the Milwaukee Brewers at Citizens Bank Park on July 21, 2017 in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania. The Phillies defeated the Brewers 6-1. (Photo by Rich Schultz/Getty Images) /

P: Aaron Nola ($9,100): The Angels still don’t really scare anyone even with Mike Trout back. Only three Angels have faced Nola before. They are a combined 4-22 with one run. Nola has been dominant lately, posting a 2.27 ERA in his last ten games. He has only been below 28 DraftKings points once in the last seven weeks. He is about as sure of a thing as we have tonight, yet there are six pitchers priced higher. Nola looks like a bargain!

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P: Patrick Corbin ($7,100): Corbin has baffled this incarnation of the Cubs. They are hitting a pathetic .136 against him in 22 at bats with a homer and eight strikeouts. Corbin also owns a solid 3.86 ERA in 14 career innings at Wrigley Field. A lot of the Cubs’ power comes from the left side, so I’m okay with rolling with Corbin at a bargain price. Especially considering that he has a 3.04 ERA in his last ten starts.

C: Jonathan Lucroy ($2,900): Steven Matz owns a 6.25 ERA over his last ten games, which means he is getting knocked around everywhere. He has never pitched at Coors Field before. This isn’t the time for him to do it. I am rolling with the Rockies’ newest toy because he is super cheap and he owns the platoon advantage over Matz. Playing at Coors doesn’t hurt either.

1B: Matt Carpenter ($4,200): I really wish that Carpenter still had eligibility at second or third base because I hate tying up such a power position with someone that is more of a gap hitter, but I am making the exception tonight. Carpenter is 10-21(.476) with three walks, two doubles, two homers, eight runs scored, and eight RBI in his career against Jimmy Nelson. He is one of the few that has mastered the Milwaukee righty. This feels like a bargain here!

2B: Ian Kinsler ($3,700): Kinsler is 8-32 with three walks, two homers, six runs scored, and four RBI in his career against CC Sabathia. Miggy and Victor Martinez have also hit Sabathia well, but again, there are better options at first base tonight.

3B: Joey Gallo ($4,400): Gallo’s price is getting so high that many wont use him tonight. That could be a mistake against Erasmo Ramirez. Gallo hit a homer off of him in the only game that he played against Ramirez. I’m rolling with Gallo once again!

SS: Trevor Story ($4,500): Story is 2-4 with a double, a run scored, and a RBI in his career against Steven Matz. Those numbers were last year at CitiField when Matz was plowing his way through National League lineups. He has had no such luck this year. Story is picking it up at the plate as well with four homers in his last ten games. This is a good situation for him to pick up another.

OF: Andrew McCutchen (5,400): McCutchen is 14-45(.311) with 11 walks, two doubles, a triple, seven runs scored, four stolen bases, and three RBI in his career against Homer Bailey. Bailey gets a break heading to Pittsburgh, but it may not feel like it with the way McCutchen has been hitting lately. He hit four homers over the weekend in San Diego, a noted pitcher’s park.

OF: Cody Bellinger ($4,700): Hmm….let me get this straight: a pitcher that struggled allowing home runs at AAA is making his major league debut in a park that caters to left handed power, and Bellinger is still this cheap? It feels like stealing. Lucas Sims allowed 19 homers at AAA this year. I’m guessing that he allows at least one in his debut, and Bellinger is the most likely to hit it.

OF: Corey Dickerson ($3,900): Dickerson homered yesterday off of a better pitcher than Mike Fiers. He is still priced to buy, and he is 3-8 with two doubles, a solo homer, and three runs scored in his career against Fiers. That dreadful slump appears to be over since Dickerson has three homers and six RBI over the last five games.

Next: FanDuel MLB Picks and Pivots

Good luck out there, and check out our picks for FanDuel baseball, along with our PGA picks. We also have plenty of NFL stuff to get you ready for football!