FanDuel MLB Daily Picks and Pivots – Thursday August 3
Welcome to the Thursday FanDuel MLB edition of Picks and Pivots, a fantasy baseball column focused on helping you find the best core lineup for today’s Main Slate DFS action!
For those of you finding us for the first time, the concept behind FanDuel MLB Picks and Pivots is to first identify key building blocks that can be used for any roster construction and then identify pivot points to help differentiate your lineup in hopes of a big payday!
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The winning GPP line-up on Wednesday put up scores just below our season average with 208 FanDuel points. Over the first 119 slates of the FanDuel MLB season, the average winning score to take down a GPP has been 260.5 points. Looking back at last season, the winning GPP lineup on average scored 255 FanDuel points with a typical roster build that allocated 25% of your salary cap to your SP and the remaining 75% to your hitters.
Over the first 119 slates of the FanDuel MLB season, the average winning score to take down a GPP has been 260.5 points.
As we start out August we continue to see the cash line creep lower and lower in DFS contests each night and last night was one of the lower main slate cash lines we have seen in some time and although our Picks and Pivots line was only able to get 112.3 points, it cashed across small field GPP’s and multipliers which is all we care about! Our starting pitcher choice, Luke Weaver, came through in a big way with 47 FanDuel points on the back of 8 K’s and home runs from Cody Bellinger and Jesse Winker was enough to get us across the cash line!
Each day we will break down our top Starting Pitcher and our top hitting stacks of the day while giving you our thoughts on roster build and lineup construction.
As always, we will look to update our picks and final lineup thought prior to lock on our twitter account @FantasyCPR so make sure to give us a follow for all the late breaking lineup news.
Without further ado, let’s get into today’s slate!
FanDuel MLB – Top Pitching Picks:
Parker Bridwell ($7,700): There are three clear elite arms on this slate – Corey Kluber, Sonny Gray and Alex Wood and this is where I expect the masses to go but with Kluber/Gray facing off against each other (with two elite offenses) and Wood giving up 11 ER over the last two starts, this could be an ideal spot to pivot down when picking your starting pitcher.
The Angels arms have feasted so far in the series against the Phillies and Bridwell gets his turn tonight after watching his rotation mates put up the following lines:
- J.C. Ramirez – 43 FanDuel Points and 3 strike outs
- Ricky Nolasco – 40 FanDuel points and 5 strike outs
Bridwell is coming off a string of strong starts with four straight outings of 34 or more FanDuel points and 41 or more in three of those four. Bridwell has been able to do this on the back of elite control (only one walk in four of his last five starts) while going at least 6 innings in each of his last six starts which puts him in position for the QS/Win combo on FanDuel.
What is most impressive about his recent runs is that he has been able to do this against some dangerous offenses – Blue Jays, Red Sox, Rays and Twins – so getting a match-up against the Phillies not only should make him safe for cash games but give him the 40+ FanDuel point upside we have seen from him in much more dangerous outings!
While Bridwell does not carry the same K upside of Kluber/Gray/Wood, he has one of the best pure match-ups on the board and as we saw with Nolasco/Ramirez, there is a very clear path to 40 FanDuel points which at this price point would put your line-ups in prime position to cash!
FanDuel MLB – Top Hitting Stacks:
Reds left-handed batters versus Chad Kuhl: The Main Slate hitting spots are likely to be concentrated to the six teams with 5+ run totals, specifically the Red Sox and Orioles bats, but there are some sneaky teams that I think could pay off in a big way that makes me more interested in pivoting off the chalk bats.
Kuhl is a pitcher who struggles with left-handed batters, surrendering a 43% fly ball rate and 37% hard contact rate and with a left-handed heavy top of the order for the Reds, this is a great spot for a mini-stack including Joey Votto ($4,000), Billy Hamilton ($3,600) and the red-hot #2 hitter Jesse Winker ($2,300) who has homered in back to back games (and was robbed of a third homer).
Houston Astros versus Blake Snell: It is hard to believe that one of the best offenses in baseball will be over-looked but with Carlos Correa and George Springer on the DL, the Astros are becoming a team that seems to get less and less press for DFS purposes.
Tonight they take on LHP Blake Snell, perhaps the worst arm on the slate, who is giving up 1.56 HR/9 to right-handed batters with a 14% walk rate (only 18% K rate) with 34% hard contact to boot!
I love the idea of stacking Jose Altuve ($4,500) and Marwin Gonzalez ($3,500) which allows you to fill in your 2B/SS positions with elite options and I am happy to build off this stack with Evan Gattis ($3,000) at catcher or Josh Reddick ($3,300) or Carlos Beltran ($3,500) in the OF!
FanDuel MLB – Sample GPP Line-Up and Slate Overview
Please Note: This is NOT an optimized line-up, it is simply illustrative to show the type of roster build we can have using the logic previously laid out in Picks and Pivots. My actual line-up may differ from the line-up shown here.
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P: Parker Bridwell ($7,700)
C: Evan Gattis ($3,000)
1B: Joey Votto ($4,000)
2B: Jose Altuve ($4,500)
3B: Rafael Devers ($3,100)
SS: Marwin Gonzalez ($3,500)
OF: Josh Reddick ($3,300)
OF: Billy Hamilton ($3,600)
OF: Jesse Winker ($2,300)
Slate Overview: I would expect the majority of line-ups today to start with the high-end pitching but I think there is merit to pivoting down to an arm like Parker Bridwell who has en elite match-up which opens up massive salary and allows you to pay up for some big time bats! I expect the Red Sox and Orioles will be the chalk offenses and I have been burned enough by chalk Red Sox/ O’s to know that we can pivot off them and get some low-owned stacks in Houston and Cincinnati that have similar upside!
Best of luck in your FanDuel MLB contests and stay tuned to Fantasy CPR and @2LockSports on Twitter for the latest DFS news and analysis!