Main DraftKings MLB Picks August 4: deGrom or Darvish In CitiField Showdown?
By Mike Marteny
DraftKings Main MLB Picks For August 4
13 of the 15 games are in the main DraftKings tournament tonight. All of the good pitching options go tonight. There are a lot of aces to go around. Two of them even face each other! How many should we use? Where are the hitting bargains? Let’s take a look!
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The money line last night was one of the highest of the season so far at 136.05. I entered three lineups, and they all finished between 148.65 and 153.6 points. That kind of consistency is good when the numbers are in triple digits. Corey Kluber and the Red Sox stacks really helped even if Alex Wood wasn’t at his best.
The winning lineup was a solid 222.5. He picked a winner with Chad Kuhl to go with Kluber and used a Red Sox/Dodgers hybrid stack to take it home.
These picks are based mostly on statistical analysis . If you have a gut feeling, then by all means, follow that. This is not an exact science. The best lineups usually have a mix of proven stats and hot players. Check out this post from Matt McGarvey for great tips about whether to use a hot player in DFS or not.
For you first time players, if you would like $10 worth of free entry tickets, use this link for the referral bonus! Then continue reading for tips on how to turn that $10 into more!
Next: DraftKings Lineup
P: Jacob deGrom ($12,700): This is a high profile matchup with Yu Darvish, but deGrom has the huge advantage over Darvish in past stats. The Dodgers are only hitting .214 against deGrom with two RBI in 42 at bats to go with nine strikeouts. DeGrom has a 2.32 ERA in his last ten starts with 49 strikeouts in 42.2 innings pitched. Every single one of those is a quality start. Not enough to sway to towards deGrom yet? How about his 2.27 ERA in ten home starts?
P: Eduardo Rodriguez ($6,900): How badly did the White Sox gut their roster? So bad that only two current active White Sox players have ever faced Eduardo Rodriguez. Jose Abreu and Tim Anderson are a combined 0-6 with three strikeouts against Rodriguez. The Chicago offense was dominated by struggling lefty J.A. Happ Wednesday afternoon. My money says that Rodriguez will do the same.
C: Salvador Perez ($3,100): Perez is 3-7 with a run scored in his career against James Paxton. Those numbers are nothing special, but this seems too cheap for a guy that hits the way he does. Perez has a .283 average with 21 homers and 65 RBI……and he’s a catcher. At any other position, he would be priced around $4,000, so enjoy the one night discount in which he owns the platoon advantage.
1B: Tyler Moore ($3,000): Moore is 4-6 with two homers and five RBI in his career against R.A. Dickey. You know the old adage that it isn’t the stars that crush knucklers. It is often role players that pound them. Kevin Seitzer and Dave Nilsson owned the best averages against Tim Wakefield. It’s a mystery why guys like Moore can figure out the knucklers, but it seems as though Moore has. And he comes really cheap!
2B: Robinson Cano ($4,300): Cano is 13-36(.361) with a walk, two doubles, two homers, four runs scored, and six RBI in his career against Jason Hammel. I touched on how good his career numbers in Kauffman Stadium are yesterday. Cano still looks cheap here.
3B: Adrian Beltre ($4,000): I really thought about going with Joey Gallo here, but Beltre is 20-74(.270) with a walk, seven doubles, six homers, 12 runs scored, and 16 RBI in his career against Bartolo Colon. Beltre is also hitting .395 over the last ten games. He has a much better chance of getting us points even if it isn’t a homer. I will take that for $600 less.
SS: Jordy Mercer ($2,900): Mercer is 6-19(.316) with three walks, three doubles, two homers, six runs scored, and five RBI in his career against Travis Wood. Wood will likely be marginally better since he is back in the National League, but the fact remains that his ERA is 6.42 and the Pirates have hit .266 with nine homers and 29 RBI in just 158 at bats against him. It’s stack time!
OF: Jay Bruce ($4,400): Yes, Yu Darvish has faced the Mets before. A few times, actually. They are only hitting .197 against him, but they have slugged four homers in 66 at bats with seven runs. That isn’t what I want if I’m spending that much on pitching, so I will invest in the guy that hit two homers off of him, and is 4-6 in his career against Darvish. You get one guess on who that is.
OF: Christian Yelich ($4,700): Yelich is perfect so far against R.A. Dickey. He has two walks and a single against him. Yelich is on a tear lately, with a .333 average, six walks, four homers, and 11 RBI in his last ten games. I like him to keep his hot streak going tonight, and Atlanta is a happy place for left handed hitters.
OF: Starling Marte ($3,900): Marte is 9-31(.290) with two walks, a double, a triple, three homers, a steal, five runs scored, and seven RBI in his career against Travis Wood. Despite the matchup in a pitcher’s park, I don’t doubt that the Pirates will still hit him.
Next: DraftKings Main Lineup 2
P: Jacob Faria ($8,500): Faria has cooled since his scorching start, but he has a nice matchup here with the Brewers in Tampa. Faria has a 2.81 ERA at home in four starts, and the Brewers strike out a lot. There is some risk involved here, but I would rather take the chance on Faria than gamble with MadBum, who has been trashed by Arizona in his career. Brad Peacock is a nice alternative, but Toronto’s offense is heating up and he wont go more than six innings. I will gamble with the strikeout upside of Faria for far less money.
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P: Kyle Freeland ($5,800): For those of you that frequent this article, you will notice that I am using a Rockies starter at home for the second straight game. Unlike yesterday though, this is only partially base on the competition. Freeland owns a 3.21 ERA in ten Coors Field starts this year. He has also racked up 20 strikeouts over his last four starts. He is way too cheap considering how he has pitched at home. On top of all of that, he owns the platoon advantage over the Phillies hottest hitter, Odubel Herrera.
C: Jonathan Lucroy ($3,100): Vince Velasquez was a great find for fantasy owners last year, but he has been a huge disappointment this season. He held the Rockies to one run in five innings in Philly earlier this year, but we all know that Coors Field is a different animal. A 4.91 ERA at sea level translates to over 6 in Denver, so I’m stacking Rockies! First up is Lucroy, who gathered two hits in his Rockies debut yesterday.
1B: Edwin Encarnacion ($4,200): I’m not really sure why Edwin is this cheap. His average is down a bit lately, but he power is still there. It should be on display against Jaime Garcia tonight.
2B: DJ LeMahieu ($5,000): LeMahieu had a big day yesterday, going 3-3 with a RBI. He is hitting .425 over his last 11 games. I don’t think that a struggling Vince Velasquez will slow him down much, if at all.
3B: Nolan Arenado ($5,400): The key ingredient in any Rockies stack is Arenado. The top five hitters in the Rockies order all drove in runs yesterday against the Mets. Expect the same kind of production tonight.
SS: Didi Gregorius ($4,200): Gregorius is 3-10 with a walk, a solo homer, and three runs scored in his career against Trevor Bauer. The Yankees aren’t quite as dangerous on the road, but with the way Gregorius is going right now, I think he can hit anywhere. He has five homers and 11 RBI in his last ten games.
OF: Andrew McCutchen ($5,400): I didn’t have money for McCutchen in my Pirates mini stack, but he deserves consideration tonight. He is 9-34(.265) with eight walks, a double, three homers, two steals, six runs scored, and nine RBI in his career against Travis Wood. He is on a tear right now, and could do some real damage against Wood.
OF: Charlie Blackmon ($5,200): Blackmon or Arenado? Arenado or Blackmon. It’s an impossible decision, right? So why choose! Take them both!
OF: Adam Jones ($3,100): Yes, I realize that Justin Verlander is on the mound, but I also realize that Verlander has a 5.32 ERA on the road. He is to the point in his career where he is only worth using at home or in a really good road matchup. This isn’t one of them as Camden Yards is a hitter’s paradise. Jones is 11-41(.268) with a walk, a double, three homers, seven runs scored, a steal, and seven RBI in his career against Verlander. I want some exposure to Verlander, and Jones is way too cheap for what he has done.
Next: FanDuel MLB Picks and Pivots
Good luck out there, and check out our picks for FanDuel baseball, along with our PGA picks. We also have plenty of NFL stuff to get you ready for football!