FanDuel MLB Daily Picks and Pivots – Sunday August 6
Welcome to the Sunday FanDuel MLB edition of Picks and Pivots, a fantasy baseball column focused on helping you find the best core lineup for today’s Main Slate DFS action!
For those of you finding us for the first time, the concept behind FanDuel MLB Picks and Pivots is to first identify key building blocks that can be used for any roster construction and then identify pivot points to help differentiate your lineup in hopes of a big payday!
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The winning GPP line-up on Saturday put up scores just below our season average with 230.1 FanDuel points. Over the first 122 slates of the FanDuel MLB season, the average winning score to take down a GPP has been 260.4 points. Looking back at last season, the winning GPP lineup on average scored 255 FanDuel points with a typical roster build that allocated 25% of your salary cap to your SP and the remaining 75% to your hitters.
Over the first 122 slates of the FanDuel MLB season, the average winning score to take down a GPP has been 260.4 points.
Saturday’s Main Slate Picks and Pivots lines were built around Danny Salazar who took on the Yankees and delivered in a big way by going 7 innings, striking out 12 batters and racking up 58 FanDuel points and was routinely found at the top of winning GPP line-ups on this slate. We hit on home runs from Adam Jones and Josh Reddick and with no offenses really “going off” this was a slate that was built more around one-off hitters and mini-stacks rather than full on team stacks!
Each day we will break down our top Starting Pitcher and our top hitting stacks of the day while giving you our thoughts on roster build and lineup construction.
As always, we will look to update our picks and final lineup thought prior to lock on our twitter account @FantasyCPR so make sure to give us a follow for all the late breaking lineup news.
Without further ado, let’s get into today’s slate!
FanDuel MLB – Top Starting Pitcher Pick:
Chris Archer ($10,500): There is simply one arm I am interested in building around today and considering he is the highest priced arm on the slate, he will also likely be highly owned and so me telling you to play Chris Archer is not going to qualify as a “sneaky play” but it is the right play in my mind.
Look at the stats – Archer has a 29.3% K rate and a 13.3% swinging strike rate – both metrics are the highest of any pitcher on the slate and if you know Picks and Pivots you know these are two of the most critical metrics I look at when selecting my DFS arm as I want to target strikeout upside!
OK so Archer has great strikeout stuff – but what about his match-up? Today Archer takes on a Brewers team that has a 25.4% K rate, the highest mark of any offense on this slate and will likely be without Travis Shaw who left yesterday’s game with an injury after being hit in the head with a ball on a steal attempt.
OK so Archer has the highest K metrics and faces the highest strikeout team on the slate – but there must be something tough about the stadium he pitches in right? Wrong – this game is in Tampa Bay and Archer simply pitches at another level in Tropicana Field with a 33% K rate at home, an 8% increase over his road marks.
So in case you are still waking up – let me break it down for you – we have a pitcher with the best strikeout rate and best swinging strikeout rate of any arm on the slate going up against the highest strikeout offense on the slate in a park where he puts numbers even farther above his season long marks!
I simply see no reason to fade Archer on this slate and he will be in 100% of my line-ups today as I look to differentiate elsewhere.
FanDuel MLB – Top Hitting Stacks:
Baltimore Orioles at home versus Anibal Sanchez: The Orioles have the second highest team total on the slate today, behind the perpetually chalky Red Sox who take on Mike Pelfrey today, but it is Baltimore that I plan on using at the core of my lines again today!
Sanchez on the season is exhibiting some serious reverse splits with a massive 43% hard contact rate and 2.23 HR/9 to right-handed hitters which could spell serious trouble when facing off against the Orioles.
Manny Machado ($3,700) and Adam Jones ($3,000) will likely be a popular pairing in lineups today but please do not continue to overlook Jonathan Schoop ($3,800) who continues to deliver each and every night (21.5 FD points last night) while having one of the lowest ownership levels of the Orioles big bats each and every night!
Sanchez’s numbers versus lefties are not as gaudy but with a 30% hard contact rate and 1.7 HR/9 you can roll out Chris Davis ($3,300) as well as part of a full on Orioles stack today! The last member of the Orioles we should point out is Tim Beckham ($2,800) who has been an absolute revelation at SS for Baltimore with 20+ points in four start games for his new team and he helps you fill a tough SS position.
Finding the second stack to work in with an Archer/Orioles core build is where the challenge lies today as we only have $2,675 per batter to fill in the last four spots of our line-up and this is where I think you can work to get creative to build some separation in your rosters today!
Atlana Braves at home versus Jose Urena: Urena is a pitcher I find myself targeting often in DFS as on the road this season he has a 34% hard contact rate and is giving up 1.5 HR/9 and now has to pitch in Atlanta which is one of the best parks for offense in all of baseball!
The Braves actually have the fifth highest run projection of any team on the Main Slate but with everyone focused on targeting the Red Sox and Orioles they may fall a bit under the radar today!
Obviously any Braves stack needs to start with Freddie Freeman ($3,700) who is back at 1B on FanDuel (meaning you need to bump Chris Davis from your Orioles stack) but I think this is the best bet in your roster build. The rest of the Braves bats are priced for value which we desperately need so plugging in OF bats Matt Adams ($2,700) and Ender Inciarte ($2,600) not only allows you to fill in your Braves stack but gives you the salary relief you need!
FanDuel MLB – Sample GPP Line-Up and Slate Overview
Please Note: This is NOT an optimized line-up, it is simply illustrative to show the type of roster build we can have using the logic previously laid out in Picks and Pivots. My actual line-up may differ from the line-up shown here.
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P: Chris Archer ($10,500)
C: $2.2K Punt Option
1B: Freddie Freeman ($3,700)
2B: Jonathan Schoop ($3,800)
3B: Manny Machado ($3,700)
SS: Tim Beckham ($2,800)
OF: Adam Jones ($3,000)
OF: Matt Adams ($2,700)
OF: Ender Inciarte ($2,600)
Slate Overview: The core of this slate is simple for me as I am locking in Chris Archer and will build around the Orioles offense which I expect to be highly owned right along side the Red Sox bats today. Finding that secondary stack is the key in my opinion to set yourself apart and I love the lefty power bats in Atlanta today which allow me to attack a great hitting environment that may be overlooked today!
Best of luck in your FanDuel MLB contests and stay tuned to Fantasy CPR and @2lockSports for all the late breaking DFS news and analysis.