FanDuel MLB Daily Picks and Pivots – Monday August 7
Welcome to the Monday FanDuel MLB edition of Picks and Pivots, a fantasy baseball column focused on helping you find the best core lineup for today’s Main Slate DFS action!
For those of you finding us for the first time, the concept behind FanDuel MLB Picks and Pivots is to first identify key building blocks that can be used for any roster construction and then identify pivot points to help differentiate your lineup in hopes of a big payday!
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The winning GPP line-up on Sunday put up scores well above our season average with 292.4 FanDuel points. Over the first 123 slates of the FanDuel MLB season, the average winning score to take down a GPP has been 260.7 points. Looking back at last season, the winning GPP lineup on average scored 255 FanDuel points with a typical roster build that allocated 25% of your salary cap to your SP and the remaining 75% to your hitters.
Over the first 123 slates of the FanDuel MLB season, the average winning score to take down a GPP has been 260.7
Sunday’s Main Slate was absolutely loaded with offense with home runs seemingly leaving ballparks around MLB each second which pushed DFS scores and the cash line significantly higher than we had seen so far in August. The Picks and Pivots core stack of the Orioles came through in a big way with 12 runs and home runs from Chris Davis, Jonathan Schoop, Manny Machado and Trey Mancini and our pitcher Mr. Chris Archer delivered a solid 40 FanDuel points which set our lines up with a decent core. As we noted yesterday, the secondary stack was going to be the key to winning and unfortunately the Braves could only muster one run while the winning teams utilized the Cardinals who exploded for 13 runs of their own which was the biggest difference in winning GPP rosters!
Each day we will break down our top Starting Pitcher and our top hitting stacks of the day while giving you our thoughts on roster build and lineup construction.
As always, we will look to update our picks and final lineup thought prior to lock on our twitter account @FantasyCPR so make sure to give us a follow for all the late breaking lineup news.
Without further ado, let’s get into today’s slate!
FanDuel MLB – Top Starting Pitcher Pick:
Max Scherzer ($11,100): By all accounts, Nationals right-hander Max Scherzer is the slam dunk play on FanDuel today as every single metric would point to him being a must play on this short slate. Scherzer has a 36% K rate on the season which is 10% higher than the next closest arm and combines that with a slate leading 16% swinging strike rate!
Scherzer is a massive -190 home favorite and takes on a Marlins team that he already punched out 11 batters and racked up 60+ FanDuel points against in his last full start against them! The one concern is that Mad Max is coming off an injury which forced him to leave his last start (against Miami) after only one inning due to neck discomfort but he has been given the green light for this start and will toe the rubber for the Nationals in D.C.
On a seven game slate like this Scherzer is the absolute best pure talent with the highest K upside of any pitcher we have the ability to roster and although there is injury “risk,” the reality is I view that as a potential ownership advantage as people talk themselves off Max and into playing the significantly lesser options on this slate.
I expect that you will see some in the industry try to sell you on Jake Arrieta in San Francisco but the Giants have the second lowest K rate on the slate so really this is more about picking a pitcher in a solid run prevention spot with a good chance to grab the Win/QS duo and get you 35-40 FanDuel points.
Feeling frisky? Maybe Ervin Santana at home against a Milwaukee team with the highest K rate on the slate is a route you are willing to go? I actually think the fact that Santana is coming off a complete game in his last start will lead the game log watchers to push more ownership here than I feel comfortable with.
What it all boils down to for me is upside and frankly if Scherzer is simply the pitcher we have been accustomed to seeing on the mound there is no pitcher on this slate that is going to come close to him. If Max twirls a double-digit K outing and drops 60+ FD points you are not cashing on this slate without him – it is that simple. One additional risk – it looks like we could have rain up until game time so we may see a delayed start here which as long as there is no late game rain risk makes me comfortable still using Max tonight!
I think you also need to look at the context of the slate – we do not have a single team with a projected run total over 5 runs so we don’t even “need” the salary savings to pay up for bats which makes locking in Scherzer at $11k seem that much more critical. I understand the injury “risk” and the ownership will be high but on a short slate I am simply playing the best pitcher with the highest upside and if Scherzer is 40% owned than that just means 60% of the field is playing catch-up with sub-par options!
FanDuel MLB – Top Hitting Stacks:
Reds at home versus Jhoulys Chacin: As I mentioned in the pitching section, we do not have a single team with a run total over 5 today which actually says less about the elite pitchers we have going and more about the weak offenses we have to choose from!
The Reds are the one team that stands out to me as they get a significant ballpark boost over the field with a home game in Great American Ball Park and Vegas has them installed as the highest scoring team with a 4.9 implied run total.
Chacin is a simple pitcher to attack as he gives up 1.55 HR/9 and 35% hard contact to left-handed batters so this is where you should start with the Reds and as Joey Votto ($4,200) and Billy Hamilton ($3,200) stand out as elite plays on this slate!
Although Chacin has been much tougher on right-handed bats (22% hard contact and only 0.55 HR/9 allowed), I have no issue locking in a full 1-4 stack here with Zack Cozart ($3,100) at a brutal shortstop position and Adam Duvall ($3,600) if you want to attack the Reds head on here but be mindful of the fact that Chacin has limited right-handed bats to a .120 ISO and .267 wOBA this season.
Detroit Tigers versus Trevor Williams: The Tigers have one of the lowest run totals on the slate but the price points on the majority of these talented hitters are simply too low and with Scherzer on the hill we are going to need to find some value today!
Williams is giving up 36.4% hard contact to right-handed batters this season but has been able to limit the home run ball with 6 HR’s allowed in 51 innings. On a slate like this with so many mediocre run totals we are going to have to dig deep and take some chances and that is exactly where I am going with guys like Ian Kinsler ($2,900) and Nick Castellanos ($2,500) who are two of the more talented hitters at their positions and if I can roster them both for under $3k on this slate than I am willing to side with the talent and forget about the match-up.
The underlying metrics show Williams is not a pitcher to stack against but on this slate there really is no clear “gas can” and we can easily build the Tigers as a secondary stack here with Max/Reds by using a Kinsler/Casty/ Jim Adducci ($2,400) value trio to fill out our roster!
FanDuel MLB – Sample GPP Line-Up and Slate Overview
Please Note: This is NOT an optimized line-up, it is simply illustrative to show the type of roster build we can have using the logic previously laid out in Picks and Pivots. My actual line-up may differ from the line-up shown here.
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P: Max Scherzer ($11,100)
C: Martin Maldonado ($2,000)
1B: Joey Votto ($4,200)
2B: Ian Kinsler ($2,900)
3B: Nick Castellanos ($2,500)
SS: Zack Cozart ($3,100)
OF: Adam Duvall ($3,600)
OF: Billy Hamilton ($3,200)
OF: Jim Adduci ($2,400)
Slate Overview: Usually by the time I get to this point I have fallen in love with a slate and all the potential it holds but today is simply not that day. Today is starting to feel like a day where you focus on managing your bankroll, building a line-up around the “safety” of Scherzer and simply hoping to use multipliers and small field tournaments/leagues to keep you above the cash line. Keep an eye on the weather today and keep your ear to the industry buzz but if you start your core with the roster build concepts we have laid out, you should be able to keep yourself in the green tonight!
Best of luck in your FanDuel MLB contests and stay tuned to Fantasy CPR and @2lockSports for the late breaking DFS news and analysis!