FanDuel MLB Daily Picks and Pivots – Wednesday August 9
Welcome to the Wednesday FanDuel MLB edition of Picks and Pivots, a fantasy baseball column focused on helping you find the best core lineup for today’s Main Slate DFS action!
For those of you finding us for the first time, the concept behind FanDuel MLB Picks and Pivots is to first identify key building blocks that can be used for any roster construction and then identify pivot points to help differentiate your lineup in hopes of a big payday!
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The winning GPP line-up on Tuesday put up scores just above the season average with 281.2 FanDuel points. Over the first 125 slates of the FanDuel MLB season, the average winning score to take down a GPP has been 260.7 points. Looking back at last season, the winning GPP lineup on average scored 255 FanDuel points with a typical roster build that allocated 25% of your salary cap to your SP and the remaining 75% to your hitters.
Over the first 125 slates of the FanDuel MLB season, the average winning score to take down a GPP has been 260.7 points.
Tuesday’s slate as I wrote up in Picks and Pivots was centered around Chris Sale and Corey Kluber and looking at the winning scores it was clear that if you didn’t have Chris Sale and his 73 FanDuel points, you simply had no shot at winning! Sale dominated the Rays over 8 innings with 13 K’s for a monster DFS night and when paired with some big time one off’s in Jake Lamb (47.9 FanDuel points), Brian Dozier (41.9) and Max Kepler (46.9), you had the makings of a GPP winning roster!
Each day we will break down our top Starting Pitcher and our top hitting stacks of the day while giving you our thoughts on roster build and lineup construction.
As always, we will look to update our picks and final lineup thought prior to lock on our twitter account @FantasyCPR so make sure to give us a follow for all the late breaking lineup news.
Without further ado, let’s get into today’s slate!
FanDuel MLB – Top Starting Pitcher Pick:
Remember yesterday when we had Chris Sale and Corey Kluber to choose from and pitching was easy? Well my friends, today is going to be a MUCH different slate to attack as hitting will rule the day and I am simply looking to find a pitcher that will not sink my line-ups.
For me the top play of the day is Gio Gonzalez ($8,900) who gets a start at home against a Marlins team he has dominated this season in three starts:
- 8 Innings, 5 K’s – 49 FanDuel Points
- 7 Innings, 8 K’s – 46 FanDuel Points
- 6 Innings, 7 K’s – 43 FanDuel Points
So for those of you scoring at home, Gio has averaged 46 FanDuel points against the Marlins in three starts this year and steps into today as a massive -177 favorite at home with a reasonable price tag so he is a lock and load right?
Go take a look at this slate and find the names you love – I will wait. (OK not really but let’s pretend). What other names besides Gio are going to jump out to the rest of the DFS world? This becomes all about game theory to me as if Gio Gonzalez is the chalk, I am simply going elsewhere!
The reason I am comfortable going another direction is that I feel that the opportunity cost at pitcher is SO small tonight that if you miss, you can make it up if you hit on the right bats. This is not Tuesday night’s slate where you have Chris Sale racking up 73 FanDuel points and leaving the field in his wake, if Gio is the “best” option then are you really worried about his ceiling of 46 FanDuel points beating you?
I am not normally one to “punt” starting pitcher but with such a low opportunity cost this feels like the slate to do it so dropping all the way down to Asher Wojciechowski ($6,100) against the Padres is a reasonable pivot strategy.
This play is less about the pitcher and more about the match-up as the Padres have the third highest K rate on the slate and a mediocre 4.4 projected run total which puts Woj in a good spot to hit value at this price point. The Reds right-hander has bounced between the pen and a starting role but the advanced metrics are promising this season as he has a 25.3% K rate (third highest on the slate) and a 10.6% swinging strike rate.
In four starts this season (two against the Cardinals and Dodgers each) he has put up 33 and 34 FD points against the Cardinals and 6 and 7 FD points against the Dodgers so the range of outcomes is very real here. But let’s be honest for a second, I am willing to throw out getting beat up by the Dodgers insane line-up and will put more stock in what he did to a Cardinals line-up that better mirrors the Padres team he gets to face today!
This is a slate where I think you really need to pay attention to ownership at SP as I expect the Gio train to be highly popular today which means pivoting off him and playing game theory makes a ton of sense. Moving down to Woj at SP gives you the salary relief to go all in on offense which I think is the right strategy today.
FanDuel MLB – Top Hitting Stacks
Houston Astros: Another day and another slate where the Astros have a 6+ projected run total and I WANT IN! This team is loaded and hopefully George Springer ($4,000) is able to make his return tonight and considering he worked out pre-game and the Astros delayed their line-up (likely to make this call), I would expect he makes his official return tonight atop the Houston order.
Miguel Gonzalez is a pitcher who gives up home runs and hard contact to hitters from both sides of the plate so I think you can mix and match the platoon splits here as he gives up 36% hard contact to lefties and 1.3 HR/9 while surrendering 31% hard contact and 1.4 HR/9 to right-handed batters.
Offense is where I am hanging my hat tonight and I will go right to the top/heart of the order here and stack Springer, Jose Altuve ($4,300), Marwin Gonzalez ($3,500) and Josh Reddick ($3,700). As I mentioned yesterday, locking in Altuve and Marwin at 2B/SS gives you such a massive advantage over the field due to the weakness of those positions so I would prioritize my exposure to them in your roster builds and get as much of this Astro offense as you can afford today!
Milwaukee Brewers versus Bartolo Colon: The Brew Crew checks in with a 5.6 implied run total, right behind the Astros, and a match-up with the GOAT, Bartolo Colon, is not one that is going to sneak up on the DFS industry.
Yes I know he just pitched a complete game against Texas but let’s be real here – he gave up 4 runs in the process and a 47% HARD CONTACT RATE! As a Mets fan I love Bart and he will forever be one of my favorite players to watch because you simply cannot believe he still gets people out but this is not a spot for nostalgia and I want in on the Brewers offense!
Eric Thames ($2,900) and Travis Shaw ($3,400) are simply priced too cheap today for this match-up and utilizing them at 1B/3B frees up a ton of salary to focus on a Core 4 of high-priced Astros bats. In case you were wondering, Colon is giving up 1.6 HR/9 with a 41% hard contact rate to left-handed batters this season so to say Thames/Shaw have home run upside would be an understatement.
Giancarlo Stanton ($4,600): He might as well be his own stack at this point and he is one of the best arguments for a full on fade of Gio today as the Marlins slugger is absolutely murdering the ball right now. Stanton has 5 home runs in his last 5 games and although the BvP shows he has never homered off Gonzalez, I am not fading a hitter this hot with this much upside who could single-handily be the difference between cashing or not on this slate!
FanDuel MLB – Sample GPP Line-Up and Slate Overview
Please Note: This is NOT an optimized line-up, it is simply illustrative to show the type of roster build we can have using the logic previously laid out in Picks and Pivots. My actual line-up may differ from the line-up shown here.
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P: Asher Wojciechowski ($6,100)
C: Manny Pina ($2,500)
1B: Eric Thames ($2,900)
2B: Jose Altuve ($4,300)
3B: Travis Shaw ($3,400)
SS: Marwin Gonzalez ($3,500)
OF: George Springer ($4,000)
OF: Josh Reddick ($3,700)
OF: Giancarlo Stanton ($4,600)
Slate Overview: Hitting is winning you this slate – it is that simple. Find the pitcher that works in your roster build that you believe gives you the ability to get 35 FanDuel points and let your offense do the heavy lifting here. This is also the slate to pay attention to ownership percentages – if your guy (ahem Gio) is getting all the love across the industry, ask yourself if you really want to play 20% owned Gio Gonzalez? Get as much Astros exposure as you can, load up on power bats around them and let the home runs fly!
Best of luck in your FanDuel MLB contests and stay tuned to Fantasy CPR and @2LockSports for all the latest DFS news and analysis!