DraftKings MLB Picks August 11: Is Rich Hill As Good As His Price Suggests?

DraftKings MLB Picks For August 11

We have a full slate tonight, and several intriguing pitching options on DraftKings. Which ones should we use? Where can we save on hitting to pay up for one of the star pitchers? Let’s check some stats!

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The money line was down a bit to 113.55 tonight. My lineup with Bautista and Stanton made it in. The other was strong with Jacob deGrom and Peacock, but only had 39 points among the hitters.

The winning lineup was up a ways to 228.6 DraftKings points. He gambled on Carlos Rodon with deGrom and game up huge. The extra money was spent on a Mets and Orioles hybrid stack for the win.

These picks are based mostly on statistical analysis . If you have a gut feeling, then by all means, follow that. This is not an exact science. The best lineups usually have a mix of proven stats and hot players. Check out this post from Matt McGarvey for great tips about whether to use a hot player in DFS or not.

For you first time players, if you would like $10 worth of free entry tickets, use this link for the referral bonus! Then continue reading for tips on how to turn that $10 into more!

Next: DraftKings Lineup 1

CHICAGO, IL – JULY 31: Jose Abreu #79 of the Chicago White Sox hits a game-tying single in the 9th inning against the Toronto Blue Jays at Guaranteed Rate Field on July 31, 2017 in Chicago, Illinois. The White Sox defeated the Blue Jays 7-6. (Photo by Jonathan Daniel/Getty Images) /

P: Rich Hill ($12,200): Hill has paralyzed the Padres so far in his career. They are only hitting .161 in 31 at bats with just a solo homer by Hunter Renfroe to show for it. They have also struck out 12 times. If you are looking to roll with the only ace of the night, Hill is one of the more sure things on the slate. Do you want to know the scary part? He may only be the fourth best pitcher on his own team!

P: Nick Pivetta ($6,400): Since I am spending up for Hill here, I am choosing to save with Pivetta. Now, there are a lot of bad numbers associated with his name this year. The 5.89 ERA on the season isn’t great. The 6.09 ERA over the last ten games is even worse. However, Pivetta still has a solid 3.89 ERA at home, a natural hitter’s park. The Mets are now short one of their best hitters with Jay Bruce off to Cleveland. The only Met he really has to worry about is Conforto. I’m not expecting a shutout, but a quality start should be the least he can do.

C: Kevan Smith ($2,900): Something isn’t quite right with Danny Duffy this year. He is allowing more hits and walks and striking out less hitters. Predictably, his ERA is up from last year’s breakout season. Smith has been hitting fifth against lefties, and as we saw in the Astros series, the White Sox pounded left handed pitching like they have for most of the year. I want some exposure to the Sox that are still priced like they are facing the 2016 version of Duffy.

1B: Jose Abreu ($3,700): Abreu is 13-37(.351) with four walks, a double, a homer, four runs scored, and two RBI in his career against Danny Duffy. Abreu seems priced way too low for the possibilities here.

2B: Robinson Cano ($4,000): Cano is 7-21 with a walk, a double, three homers, four runs scored, and four RBI in his career against Ricky Nolasco. Nolasco has only allowed nine homers in his last ten games. Believe me, that is a marked improvement from the 19 he allowed in his first 13 starts. However, Nolasco has given up more runs during that span. At any rate, Cano and his teammates are all good plays tonight.

3B: Jake Lamb ($4,500): Jake Lamb has three singles, a walk, and three RBI in seven at bats so far against John Lackey. What makes him more appealing is that 15 of his 25 homers have come at home, and Lackey has given up 27 big flies already this year. A pitcher that struggles with giving up homers against a great offense in a hitter’s park? Stack if you can afford it! Lamb is one of the more affordable pieces.

SS: Enrique Hernandez ($3,300): Kike came up big against a lefty last night with three RBI. I am rolling him out there again against another lefty. Hernandez remains far too cheap for what he does to left handed pitching.

OF: Nelson Cruz ($5,200): Ricky Nolasco hasn’t been nearly as bad lately as he was early on, but the act remains that he has a 5.09 ERA and has given up 17 of his 28 homers allowed on the road. Cruz himself has pounded Nolasco for years. He is 8-22(.364) with a walk, a double, three homers, five runs scored, and five RBI against him in his career. There is a good chance that Cruz takes him deep here.

OF: Odubel Herrera ($4,300): I am going back to my token left handed Phillies against Mets righty Seth Lugo in the friendly confines of Citizens Bank Park. Herrera’s average is 38 points higher at home, and he is hitting .359 over his last ten games. The best part is that his price is still in the reasonable range.

OF: Nick Williams ($3,500): The price on Williams is still too low with an average righty on the hill. His .360 average was unsustainable, but he is still hitting .289 with five homers and 23 RBI in 32 games. The odds are pretty good that he will get us something tonight.

Next: DraftKings Lineup 2

MILWAUKEE, WI – MAY 29: Jimmy Nelson #52 of the Milwaukee Brewers pitches during the first inning against the Arizona Diamondbacks at Miller Park on May 29, 2015 in Milwaukee, Wisconsin. (Photo by Mike McGinnis/Getty Images) /

P: Jimmy Nelson ($9,900): There are several factors that make Nelson a safe play tonight. First off, his mound opponent gave up ten earned runs in his last start, so a win if very likely. Next, the Reds are only hitting .241 with three homers and 10 runs in 137 at bats with 39 strikeouts. Nelson has a 2.74 ERA over his last ten starts. Finally, Nelson has a stellar 2.43 ERA at home with 87 strikeouts in 77.2 home innings this year. He should live up to his price point easily tonight.

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P: Carlos Carrasco ($9,700): Carrasco is a bit of a risk, as his 4.06 ERA would indicate. However, he has a nice 3.44 road ERA and gets a park upgrade to Tropicana Field tonight. Inside there he finds a team with elevated strikeout potential even though they will likely get a couple of runs off of him. Don’t pay top dollar for strikeouts tonight. There is plenty of potential just below the surface. Of course, it doesn’t hurt that the Rays are only hitting .211 against Carrasco in 76 career at bats with just one homer and 25 strikeouts.

C: Manny Pina ($3,300): Homer Bailey allowed a career high ten earned runs the last time he stood on a mound in front of a crowd. His historically bad season rolls on with a trip to hitter-friendly Miller Park tonight. The Brewers lit him up for six run in three innings the first time he faced them this year. We know what to expect for tonight. Pina singled and hit a two run homer in that game.

1B: Joe Mauer ($3,300): Mauer is 10-35(.286) with six walks, a double, three runs scored, a steal, and two RBI in his career against Anibal Sanchez. Sanchez has been mostly solid since his return from exile to the bullpen, so I elected to stack elsewhere. However, Mauer is a good place for cheap exposure, and he is hitting high in a lineup that seems to have woke up after taking the last three weeks off.

UPDATE: With Adduci out of the lineup, I am moving down in price here to take a better outfielder. Victor Martinez is simply too cheap at $2,600 against Kyle Gibson.

2B: Ian Kinsler ($4,200): Kinsler is 11-34(.324) with five walks, a double, a homer, six runs scored, and three RBI in his career against Kyle Gibson. He has even stolen a base! Many Tigers are too expensive to stack tonight and still pay for pitching, but you can have the top two hitters in Detroit’s order against Gibson for $7,000. That should be a great bargain tonight.

3B: Pablo Sandoval ($3,300): Don’t look now, but Sandoval has a hit in all four of his games back in San Francisco. The Giants are sitting him against lefties, but so long as he keeps collecting hits against righties, he will be in there. And at a bargain price. Panda looks like a sure handful of points right now. He is also 8-16 with a walk, two doubles, a homer, three runs scored, and six RBI in his career against Edwin Jackson.

SS: Tim Beckham ($3,200): In case you haven’t noticed, Tim Beckham still has not gone hitless in a Baltimore uniform. DraftKings obviously hasn’t noticed considering his precipitous price drop here. Beckahm is down $1,300 from Wednesday’s price in Anaheim, also a pitcher’s park. Paul Blackburn has been very good this year, but he is not an ace, and certainly not of the caliber that warrants this steep of a drop. Beckham is a great bargain tonight.

OF: Bryce Harper ($5,600): The Red Sox against Jaime Garcia may seen like low hanging fruit, but Harper is lower. Chris Stratton owns a 6.63 ERA in 19 innings this season. That’s no accident. And Harper owns the platoon advantage. Ouch!

OF: Ryan Braun ($4,700): Braun is pricey, but he is likely worth it against Bailey. Braun is 13-39 with two walks, two steals, four doubles, three homers, five runs scored, and eight RBI in his career against Homer Bailey. He hit Bailey even before the rest of the league did. It stands to reason that he can tonight.

OF: Jim Adduci ($2,800): Adduci is perfect so far against Kyle Gibson. He has a single, a double, a run scored, and two RBI against the Twins’ rotation filler. Gibson is good for nothing more than stacking against this year. Adduci is a nice, cheap option, and he bats second against righties.

UPDATE: Adduci is taking a seat tonight, so I am going with Matt Joyce leading off against Ubaldo. He has some pop left in his bat against a notorious fly ball pitcher.

Next: FanDuel MLB Picks and Pivots

Good luck out there, and check out our picks for FanDuel baseball, along with our PGA picks. We also have plenty of NFL stuff to get you ready for football!