FanDuel MLB Daily Picks and Pivots – Friday August 11
Welcome to the Friday FanDuel MLB edition of Picks and Pivots, a fantasy baseball column focused on helping you find the best core lineup for today’s Main Slate DFS action!
For those of you finding us for the first time, the concept behind FanDuel MLB Picks and Pivots is to first identify key building blocks that can be used for any roster construction and then identify pivot points to help differentiate your lineup in hopes of a big payday!
PLAY FANDUEL: New users win first contest or get credited up to $120!
The winning GPP line-up on Thursday put up scores just above the season average with 267.3 FanDuel points. Over the first 127 slates of the FanDuel MLB season, the average winning score to take down a GPP has been 261.0 points. Looking back at last season, the winning GPP lineup on average scored 255 FanDuel points with a typical roster build that allocated 25% of your salary cap to your SP and the remaining 75% to your hitters.
Over the first 127 slates of the FanDuel MLB season, the average winning score to take down a GPP has been 261.0 points.
Thursday’s winning GPP rosters had a very simple theme that was delivered early in the night – if you stacked the Mets bats, you won some money! The Mets went off for 10 runs with home runs from Neil Walker, Michael Conforto, Wilmer Flores and Curtis Granderson and they single handily carried teams to GPP wins and big cash nights! From a pitching perspective, Jacob deGrom was the best pure play in many cases with 57 FanDuel points and if you played a Dexter Fowler one-off, he rewarded you with 44 FanDuel points on the back of a 5 RBI, 1 home run night!
Each day we will break down our top Starting Pitcher and our top hitting stacks of the day while giving you our thoughts on roster build and lineup construction.
As always, we will look to update our picks and final lineup thought prior to lock on our twitter account @FantasyCPR so make sure to give us a follow for all the late breaking lineup news.
Without further ado, let’s get into today’s slate!
FanDuel MLB – Top Starting Pitcher Pick:
When you open up this slate and begin to craft your roster you will notice that we do not have a single pitcher priced above $10k tonight and frankly there are two spots which jump out to me and I expect the masses as well.
Rich Hill ($9,300) is an absurd -350 favorite at home against San Diego – seriously THREE FIFTY!. Listen, I could be wrong but this feels like the super chalky spot that everyone will gravitate towards on a slate without much great pitching but this is where I let the masses chase a guy who NEVER pitches deep into games (has not topped 100 pitches in any of his last eight games and has only made it into the 6th inning once in his last four starts. There is simply no upside at this price point and with inflated ownership I am OUT.
Jimmy Nelson ($9,400) is the best pure play on the slate in my opinion with the elite K upside we are looking for from our starting pitcher with double-digit swinging strike rates in ten straight games ! The price point is fair here and the upside is evident and I would not fault you for taking a guy who already struck out 11 Reds in his last start against them and put up 58 FanDuel points!
Here’s the thing- after these two guys who do you REALLY want to play? Now I am sure there are guys you might want to roster but my guess is that these two will dominate the ownership on this slate and I think we can make the case for a pivot away from them tonight!
Nick Pivetta ($5,500): The cheapest arm on the slate, which is actually kind of amazing considering we have guys like Anibal Sanchez, Kyle Gibson and Ubaldo Jimenez on the mound, is the Phillies right-hander who gets a home start against the Mets.
There are a few things at play here that really intrigue me about Pivetta and props to Patio Joe and the guys from WiseTake for helping me uncover this idea during our slate breakdown on their podcast! GIVE IT A LISTEN AND LET ME KNOW WHAT YOU GUYS THINK!
First, Pivetta is an EXTREME reverse splits pitcher with an absurdly bad 3.12 HR/9 and a 45% hard contact rate versus right-handed batters and at home this season he has surrendered 8 home runs in only 18 innings of work to RHB. I know it’s odd that I would start with a reason to stack against him but stay with me here – the Mets line-up outside of Yoenis Cespedes is incredibly lefty heavy and with Dominic Smith being called up for the Mets it could force Wilmer Flores out of the line-up which would make this even more appealing as the only remaining Mets RHB would be Amed Rosario and whichever catcher gets the start.
The second thing about this match-up that I love is that after a big night from the Mets offense we should see the ownership spike for the Mets hitters in a perceived good match-up but keep this in mind – against lefties this season, Pivetta has a 0.44 HR/9 versus lefties and has yet to surrender a home run to a LHB at home this year over 18 innings of work. So where the masses may look to stack the Mets bats here, if we get a lefty heavy line-up it actually would favor Pivetta in this spot and make him a great GPP play at low ownership in contrast to the Mets stacks!
Keep in mind also that Pivetta faced the Mets already once this year, putting up 40 FanDuel points while pitching 7 innings and giving up 1 hit, 1 run and striking out 4 batters. In that game he was able to induce 18% hard contact and a 10.4% swinging strike rate against a left-handed heavy Mets team so keep an eye on the line-up here as the more lefties we get the better this spot becomes!
Ultimately I see Nelson/Wood being the two most coveted arms but on this slate I think the opportunity cost is low enough where you can pivot down and try to get 35-40 FanDuel points from your starter. As Joe mentioned on the podcast, this feels like a slate where you build the line-up you like and then fill in your pitcher and the more I dig through the slate the more I agree with him!
FanDuel MLB – Top Hitting Stacks:
Arizona Diamondbacks versus John Lackey in Chase Field: If there is one spot that jumped out to me on this slate it was John Lackey having to take on Arizona IN Chase Field and with only a 5 projected run total, fifth highest on the slate, we may actually see them get over-looked today but I am ALL IN.
On the season, Lackey is giving up 2.5 HR/9 and 34% hard contact to left-handed batters which is bad news for the line-up he will take on in Arizona tonight. Jake Lamb ($3,500) is my absolute favorite play on this slate and the price is simply too low for the match-up/ballpark and he will be the first guy in every line-up I make! David Peralta ($3,300) and A.J. Pollock ($3,600) both sit at reasonable price points given their match-up and if Chris Herrmann ($2,000) is behind the plate he is a fantastic punt catcher with power upside to complete a stack here!
Houston Astros: Yes this is the third day I am going back to the well here and two straight days they have burned me (and everyone else mind you) so on this slate with the 6th highest projected run total (just below Arizona) they may get over-looked for some new shiny toys but I think riding them for another night is a great GPP strategy!
Cole Hamels being on the other side of this match-up gives some name appeal which may further deflate ownership here but Hamels is a shell of the pitcher he once was, giving up 40% hard contact with only a 15% K rate against right-handed batters. All the usual suspects are in play here including Jose Altuve ($4,100), Marwin Gonzalez ($3,500) and George Springer ($3,800) but my favorite GPP play may be Yuli Gurriel ($3,500) who seems to be the forgotten man in DFS each and every night as he is owned in less than 5% of contests while the names above get 15-20% ownership!
FanDuel MLB – Sample GPP Line-Up and Slate Overview
Please Note: This is NOT an optimized line-up, it is simply illustrative to show the type of roster build we can have using the logic previously laid out in Picks and Pivots. My actual line-up may differ from the line-up shown here.
More from FanSided
- MLB Rumors: Justin Verlander has a clear suitor, but it comes with a catch
- MLB Rumors: Braves trade grade, Cardinals trade bait, Red Sox selling
- USMNT news: Turner to Forest, Trusty to Sheffield, Reynolds to Westerlo
- Inside the Clubhouse: What I’m hearing as the MLB Trade Deadline nears
- Yankees: Luis Severino has blunt assessment of another miserable outing
P: Nick Pivetta ($5,500)
C: Brian McCann ($2,600)
1B: Paul Goldschmidt ($4,700)
2B: Jose Altuve ($4,100)
3B: Jake Lamb ($3,500)
SS: Marwin Gonzalez ($3,500)
OF: George Springer ($3,800)
OF: A.J. Pollock ($3,600)
OF: David Peralta ($3,300)
Slate Overview: This is an amazing GPP slate as the pitching choices and variety of roster builds makes this a great night to take some shots in tournaments! Pitching feels cut and dry but I think by digging deeper you can find some interesting value plays like Pivetta or high upside arms that may be over-looked like a certain Braves right-hander as we break down on the podcast! Hitting is all about Arizona to me and it will be where I start my teams on this slate, specifically with Lamb/Peralta but I have no issue completing a stack here with Goldy/Pollock as well! Enjoy this slate guys and make sure to give the WiseTake slate breakdown with me and Patio Joe a look and let us know what you think!
Best of luck in your FanDuel MLB contests and stay tuned to Fantasy CPR for all the late breaking line-up news and roster updates!