FanDuel MLB Daily Picks and Pivots – Saturday August 12
Welcome to the Saturday FanDuel MLB edition of Picks and Pivots, a fantasy baseball column focused on helping you find the best core lineup for today’s Main Slate DFS action!
For those of you finding us for the first time, the concept behind FanDuel MLB Picks and Pivots is to first identify key building blocks that can be used for any roster construction and then identify pivot points to help differentiate your lineup in hopes of a big payday!
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The winning GPP line-up on Friday put up scores just below the season average with 259.5 FanDuel points. Over the first 128 slates of the FanDuel MLB season, the average winning score to take down a GPP has been 261.0 points. Looking back at last season, the winning GPP lineup on average scored 255 FanDuel points with a typical roster build that allocated 25% of your salary cap to your SP and the remaining 75% to your hitters.
Over the first 128 slates of the FanDuel MLB season, the average winning score to take down a GPP has been 261.0 points.
Friday’s Main Slate winning GPP rosters were built around Carlos Carrasco who went absolutely bonkers against Tampa Bay with 10 strikeouts and 64 FanDuel points at 10-12% ownership and the clear top arm on the slate! Hitting was spread out but the Brewers stack finally broke out with 10 runs and combined with some power one-offs like Yoenis Cespedes, Max Kepler and David Peralta, were able to take home some big time tournaments!
Each day we will break down our top Starting Pitcher and our top hitting stacks of the day while giving you our thoughts on roster build and lineup construction.
As always, we will look to update our picks and final lineup thought prior to lock on our twitter account @FantasyCPR so make sure to give us a follow for all the late breaking lineup news.
Without further ado, let’s get into today’s slate!
FanDuel MLB – Top Pitching Picks:
Looking over this slate we have three “top” arms all priced at the same range with Aaron Nola, Jon Lester and Carlos Martinez getting the nod as the “elite arms” on this slate. Although all three have their merits, I expect that the majority of the ownership to land with these three and there are red flags from each of their match-ups that make me very hesitant to pay the freight.
Lester in Chase Field is going to have to dodge the big time right-handed power bats here and with only a 22% K rate against right-handed batters, I simply do not see the upside here and the risk against the Arizona line-up in Chase Field leaves me hesitant to pay nearly $10k for him on this slate.
Martinez and Nola essentially are the same pitcher on this slate as they have the strikeout upside we look for but the splits are decidedly against them today as both pitches see their K rates plummet to 21% against left-handed batters and the Mets/Braves will likely be loaded with hitters with the wrong platoon split for these arms.
Similar to how I felt on Friday, I could see any of these arms putting up a great outing and being the pitcher on winning GPP rosters but I do not think they have the upside to warrant their price points and I think we could take some shots at cheaper price points when taking our starting pitcher.
Sean Manaea ($7,200) is the arm I am most intrigued by on this slate as any time we can attack the Orioles bats with a strike-out lefty, we need to at least consider the upside. The Orioles have a 24.3% K rate against LHP this season which is 8th highest in all of baseball and Manaea gets to face them in the pitcher friendly elements in Oakland!
Manaea on the season has a 24% K rate versus right-handed hitters which improves to 25% when pitching at home and over the last two seasons has given up less than 1 HR/9 to RH hitters when pitching in Oakland.
What intrigues me the most about Manaea is his pitch selection as the Orioles have struggled against sliders all season long and Manaea uses his slider roughly 20% of the time with a massive 45% K rate and 20% swinging strike rate.
If Manaea is able to utilize his fastball/change-up to get ahead in the count against the Orioles he will have the perfect set-up to rack up K’s against the Orioles with his slider. Manaea has the upside for tournaments we look for with three starts this season racking up 49 or more FanDuel points (against the Indians (twice) and the Yankees) so he has proven his ability in the toughest on paper match-ups and he presents an intriguing value option on this slate that lets you load up on bats!
FanDuel MLB – Top Hitting Stacks
FINE! Three days in a row the Astros have let me and my bankroll down so I am off them today (cue the 10 run pending explosion) so let’s find some other spots to target!
Los Angeles Dodgers versus Chacin in LA: On the season Jhoulys Chacin has given up 35% hard contact to left-handed hitters with a minuscule 16% K rate and elevated 12% walk rate and now has to take on a left-handed heavy team in the Dodgers with the proven ability to win any slate they are on!
Cody Bellinger ($4,200) and Corey Seager ($3,800) are the elite plays here and by dropping down to a mid-tier arm we should have no problem fitting them into our line-ups. Joc Pederson ($2,700) and Yasmani Grandal ($2,700) make for cost-effective additions to a full on Dodgers stack here and with a team total of 5 runs, should be primed for a great offensive outing!
Washington Nationals at home versus Chris Stratton: In limited sample size this season, Stratton has a 8% K rate versus left-handed batters and a 17% walk rate which may not exactly sit well against the powerful Nationals line-up with left-handed pop!
The play that stands out to me here is Daniel Murphy at only $3,300 who helps you fill in a weak 2B position and can be paired with another value play in Adam Lind ($2,200) who should be in the Nats line-up against a right-hander today. If you are sliding these two in your line-up then you simply need to include Bryce Harper ($5,000) who although expensive, is easy to fit in within this roster build (again, a benefit of dropping down at SP).
UPDATE – It looks like the Giants have pushed up Jeff Samardzija for Saturday. This takes me off a full Nationals stack and I hate to say it but the Astros may be where I am headed back to against Texas and Tyson Ross. Altuve for Murphy, Springer/Reddick in for Harper and Lind perhaps?
FanDuel MLB – Sample GPP Line-Up and Slate Overview
Please Note: This is NOT an optimized line-up, it is simply illustrative to show the type of roster build we can have using the logic previously laid out in Picks and Pivots. My actual line-up may differ from the line-up shown here.
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P: Sean Manaea ($7,100)
C: Yasmani Grandal ($2,700)
1B: Cody Bellinger ($4,200)
2B: Daniel Murphy ($3,300)
3B: Kris Bryant ($3,900)
SS: Corey Seager ($3,800)
OF: Joc Pederson ($2,700)
OF: Bryce Harper ($5,000)
OF: Adam Lind ($2,200)
Slate Overview: After looking through the slate and understanding the kind of high-upside offense I could build if I dropped down at starting pitcher, this is a roster build I am very excited about utilizing! Although the top three arms may seem “safe,” I do think there is enough risk in their match-ups to warrant a cost saving pivot that allows you to load up on high-end bats which could easily win you this slate!
Best of luck in your FanDuel MLB contests and stay tuned to Fantasy CPR and @2LockSports on Twitter for all the late breaking line-up news and roster updates!