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Early DraftKings MLB Picks August 20: Are Any High Priced Pitchers Worth It?

By Mike Marteny

PHOENIX, AZ - AUGUST 08: Kenta Maeda
PHOENIX, AZ - AUGUST 08: Kenta Maeda /
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DraftKings
PITTSBURGH, PA – AUGUST 18: Starling Marte #6 of the Pittsburgh Pirates hits an RBI triple during the fifth inning against the St. Louis Cardinals at PNC Park on August 18, 2017 in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania. (Photo by Joe Sargent/Getty Images) /

DraftKings Early MLB Picks For August 19

We have 12 games in the early DraftKings tournament today. I kind of with that DraftKings would split the 3pm eastern first pitch times with the night games. Then we would have Coors in the nightcap instead of in Sox-Rangers territory. We have a couple of aces, but are they worth using? Let’s check out some stats.

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The money line yesterday was only 89.75 DraftKings points. Subpar pitching had a lot to do with that, says the person who had Jake Odorizzi‘s -9.55 gracing my roster. Even Starling Marte couldn’t save me.

The winning lineup predictably attainable at 169.3. He had Chad Kuhl with Ryu and the big bats from Seattle and Pittsburgh to take the tournament down by 0.1 points!

These picks are based mostly on statistical analysis . If you have a gut feeling, then by all means, follow that. This is not an exact science. The best lineups usually have a mix of proven stats and hot players. Check out this post from Matt McGarvey for great tips about whether to use a hot player in DFS or not.

For you first time players, if you would like 25% of your first deposit in DraftKings dollars, use this link for the referral bonus! Then continue reading for tips on how to turn those dollars into more!

Next: DraftKings Lineup

DraftKings
MIAMI, FL – AUGUST 13: Giancarlo Stanton #27 of the Miami Marlins hits his 42nd homerun in the third inning during the game between the Miami Marlins and the Colorado Rockies at Marlins Park on August 13, 2017 in Miami, Florida. Stanton tied the record for most homeruns in a season by a Marlin. (Photo by Mark Brown/Getty Images) /

P: Kenta Maeda ($9,400): Honestly, none of the high priced options are that appealing today. This could be a spot for someone who is still under the radar because of the dominance of the pitching staff he is on. Maeda is 7-1 with a 2.39 ERA in nine starts since moving back to the rotation. Detroit is a solid offense, but Comerica Park is enormous. That should help Maeda keep that ERA down. He wont go more than six innings, but he should put up good numbers in those six innings.

P: Adam Conley ($5,700): The current incarnation of the Mets (what’s left of them) is only hitting .159 in 63 at bats against Conley with a homer, two RBI, and 14 strikeouts. Those are really good numbers! Conley is always a risk, but with some PCL offenses boasting more pop than the Mets, this is about the best spot you will ever have to use him.

C: Caleb Joseph ($3,400): Joseph will likely draw the start this afternoon after Castillo caught last night. I want as much exposure to this game as possible, and the cheaper the better. Former Oriole farmhand Parker Bridwell has been good, but Camden Yards is a launchpad in August.

1B: Lucas Duda ($3,900): Duda is 5-13 with two walks, a double, two homers, and four RBI in his career against Yovani Gallardo. Tropicana Field is a pitcher’s park, but Gallardo has surrendered five homers in his last three starts.

2B: Jason Kipnis ($4,500): Kipnis is 3-8 with two walks, a double, a homer, and two RBI in his career against Jason Hammel. If you have the money, an Indians stack could be lucrative. Hammel has allowed eight homers to the Tribe in just 97 at bats!

3B: Manny Machado ($5,400): In case you missed it, Machado has five hits in the first two games of this series. Three of them are home runs. One is a grand slam. Machado is rolling right now, and should be in at least one of your lineups.

SS: Elvis Andrus ($5,100): The Cowboys beat the Bears 17-7 last night under the lights at Soldier Field. Wait…this was a Guranteed Rate Field, and the only helmets involved were batting helmets. It was easy to mistake this for a football game due to the score. These two teams have given the scoreboard a workout in the first two games of the series. With Miguel Gonzalez and A.J. Griffin taking the hill. This will be among the favorite stacks once again.

OF: Giancarlo Stanton ($5,100): Stanton is one of the few that has hit Jacob deGrom well. He is 7-18 with three walks, three homers, and five RBI in his career against deGrom. deGrom has 34.8 DraftKings points in his two starts against the Marlins. While those numbers are good, they aren’t enough for his lofty price.

OF: Corey Dickerson ($3,700): Dickerson is mired in a hellacious slump right now, but he is 5-13 with a double, a homer, and four RBI in his career against Yovani Gallardo. He will have a good opportunity to turn things around tonight. This is still a big risk, but for this price, Dickerson is hard to pass up against a guy with a 5.84 ERA.

OF: Nicky Delmonico ($3,700): Delmonico has four homers in the last four games. And he is still this cheap. No one, let alone someone who its hitting as well as Delmonico is right now, should be priced this low against A.J. Griffin. Just staying…….

Next: DraftKings Early Lineup 2

DraftKings
CINCINNATI, OH – AUGUST 5: Luis Castillo #58 of the Cincinnati Reds pitches in the second inning against the St. Louis Cardinals at Great American Ball Park on August 5, 2017 in Cincinnati, Ohio. (Photo by Jamie Sabau/Getty Images) /

P: Luis Castillo ($8,400): There are few scenarios in which I would sit Castillo right now. The rookie has a 3.39 ERA in ten starts. One of those was in Coors Field and six of those were at his home park, which is likely the most hitter-friendly venue east of Nebraska. That includes Sun Trust Park, his palette for tonight. Even with the great home hitter’s park, the Braves have the sixth lowest wOBA against right handed pitching. There is some risk involved here, but Castillo has torched all of the red flags in his path so far. Expecting a quality start is the norm right now.

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P: Kyle Freeland ($6,400): Freeland has been an anomaly this year a la Jon Gray last year. His ERA at home is 3.31 compared to 4.22 on the road. The Rockies have only allowed seven runs to Milwaukee in the first two games of this series. Hey, here seven runs is like three at sea level. Freeland offers solid value for a very low price. I trust him more than anyone else in this tier.

C: Miguel Montero ($2,900): Montero picked up two hits on Friday in his return to Wrigley Field. He sat yesterday, but should be back in there today against Kyle Hendricks. Montero is a career .267 hitter at Wrigley with 14 homers in 436 at bats. He is worth a shot for this price.

1B: Eric Hosmer ($4,100): Hosmer is 13-32(.406) with three walks, five doubles, three homers, 11 runs scored, and eight RBI in his career against Danny Salazar. Salazar has actually allowed six homer and 29 runs to the Royals in 208 at bats with a .264 average. Again, those numbers aren’t nearly what I want if I am spending that much cash on a pitcher.

2B: Rougned Odor ($4,000): The Rangers are hitting .295 against Miguel Gonzalez with three homers and 12 runs in only 78 at bats. A Ranger stack is in order here. Odor has one of those homers in five at bats. For this low of a price, it is worth paying to see if he can do it again. He also hit two homers last night. That doesn’t hurt.

3B: Joey Gallo ($4,900): Gallo already has ten homers in August. We still have 11 days left in the month! A weaker righty in Miguel Gonzalez provides him a great chance to add to that total.

SS: Tim Beckham ($4,400): Ho hum, another hit and another run yesterday. Nothing to see here. Just Beckham dominating as an Oriole.

OF: Mike Trout ($5,500): You know a rotation is in distress when Chris Tillman is a marked upgrade to who was supposed to start the game. The Angels hit four homers last night. Trout hit two of those. Valbuena had the other two. An Angels stack is a strong play once again.

OF: Nomar Mazara ($5,300): Mazara has 15 RBI in the last 11 games. This promises to be the highest scoring game of the day again, Coors Field be damned. They at least have a couple of solid pitchers going there. The same can’t be said for Arlington.

OF: Shin-soo Choo ($4,100): Choo continues to hit second in a very potent lineup against a very weak pitcher. In my mind, the Rangers are the best stack of the day. Of course, I thought the Nationals were last night and they were dominated by Travis Wood.

Next: FanDuel MLB Picks and Pivots

Good luck out there, and check out our picks for FanDuel baseball, along with our PGA picks. We also have plenty of NFL stuff to get you ready for football!