DraftKings MLB Picks August 21: You Don’t Have To Pay To Get Good Pitching
By Mike Marteny
DraftKings MLB Picks For August 21
We have seven games tonight, and a few with ace potential taking the hill. The entire White Sox-Twins doubleheader is off of the DraftKings boards, which is somewhat disappointing. We don’t get to use Buxton now! Unfortunately, the White Sox-Rangers series is over, and there is no game in Coors. Who should we stack then? Let’s check some stats!
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The money line last night was down a little to 108.5. My Pirates stack failed, so I was spent even though I had the right pitchers.
The winning lineup was only at 154.5 DraftKings points. He used Gio Gonzalez and Dinelson Lamet against each other, but it worked. The big night from Josh Bell and huge value from Pedro Florimon pushed him over the top.
These picks are based mostly on statistical analysis . If you have a gut feeling, then by all means, follow that. This is not an exact science. The best lineups usually have a mix of proven stats and hot players. Check out this post from Matt McGarvey for great tips about whether to use a hot player in DFS or not.
For you first time players, if you would like a bonus of 25% of your first deposit, use this link for the referral bonus! Then continue reading for tips on how to turn those DraftKings dollars into more!
Next: DraftKings Lineup 1
DraftKings – Top Starting Pitcher Plays:
P: Alex Wood ($12,100): Wood is the highest priced pitcher on the day, and he is the only one I would consider spending top dollar on. There is so much value in the lower tiers. However, the A’s are cheap enough that you can put together a potent stack and still pay for the services of Wood. The Pirates are only hitting .231 against him in 78 at bats with only one homer and five runs to go with 23 strikeouts. PNC Park is a pitcher’s haven much like his own home park, so expect another strong start from Wood.
P: Chris Stratton ($6,800): Stratton was dominant in his last outing against a strong Nationals offense in Washington! That was easily the best start of his young career, but he has given up just four earned runs over his last three starts now. Now he gets to take on a Brewers team that has issues putting the bat on the ball. All at one of the best pitcher’s parks around. Stratton is way underpriced tonight. I see him outscoring Hamels.
P: Zach Davies ($8,400): What goes for Stratton also goes for Davies. The Giants are not a particularly strong offense, and Davies has actually been very good once he gets out of Miller Park. Davies has a spectacular 2.52 ERA in 12 road starts to go with his 7-0 record. He also owns an outstanding 2.89 ERA over his last ten starts. His price is tempered because he doesn’t strike out a lot of batters, but he will still rack up some outs in this one.
P: Taijuan Walker ($7,800): The rebuilding Mets were dominated by Adam Conley yesterday. Conley is not necessarily a bad pitcher, but he doesn’t have the skill set that Walker does. Walker has the ability to shut the Mets down as well, and is virtually assured a win with that offense supporting him.
C: Tyler Flowers ($3,600): Flowers and Kurt Suzuki are nearly the same price, so if Flowers sits, I will like move to Suzuki. Andrew Albers will hold the platoon advantage over the lefty power, which should help keep the runs down some, but Sun Trust Park is still decent for righties as well.
C: Martin Maldonado ($2,700): I really don’t care for any of the catching options today, so this is clearly a punt. Cole Hamels has issues with right handed batters, so I will throw one at him and see if it sticks.
1B: Ryon Healy ($3,800): Healy hits good left handers hard, so what do you think he will do to Wade Miley? Miley pitched well against this same team back on the 10th, but that game was in Oakland. Camden Yards saw a ton of homers over the weekend. Long balls haven’t really been Miley’s issue, but his 5.79 ERA since the All Star Break also says it doesn’t really matter. Hitters will get Miley sooner or later.
1B: Yonder Alonso ($4,000): Despite not playing every day, Alonso still has managed to put together an eight game hitting streak. That bodes well for him coming into a park that is a dream come true for lefty power. MIke Foltynewicz throws hard, but is struggling. If Alonso gets into one, it’s going out!
2B: Jed Lowrie ($3,600): Lowrie doesn’t have much for power, but he just keeps getting on base. If he is on base today against Miley, there is a really good chance that he scores a few runs.
2B: Robinson Cano ($4,400): Cano is another lefty with power who shold enjoy what SunTrust Prk has to offer. Foltynewicz has actually pitched better at home, but that 5.63 ERA over the last ten games mean anytime he takes the mound, he’s a risk right now.
3B: Matt Chapman ($2,900): Chapman has nine homers in 153 at bats this season. He clearly has the power to give a baseball a long ride. With Miley throwing to him, there is good chance that Chapman gets to double digits tonight.
3B: Manny Machado ($5,600): Machado had six hits in the three games series against the Angels here. The A’s aren’t going to provide much, if any, more resistance. He is hitless in four at bats so far against Smith. That ends tonight.
SS: Marcus Semien ($4,100): Semien is another right hander with power standing in against Miley. The Orioles have a bad rotation and call a hitter’s park home. They are going to present us a lot of stack options the rest of the way. Tonight is not an isolated incident.
SS: Tim Beckham ($4,800): Beckham had just his second hitless game as an Oriole yesterday, but he still scored a run. The cool down has likely begun for Beckham, but I still am on board against a weaker pitcher.
Next: Top Outfield Plays
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OF: Khris Davis ($4,600): Davis has 33 homers on the season, including three in the last ten games. His chances of taking Miley deep are very good in a park like Camden Yards.
OF: David Peralta ($4,700): Peralta still leads off – and still punishes – right handed pitchers. Robert Gsellman has fallen on hard times lately, but he is not the worst pitcher on the slate as his DraftKings price may indicate. DraftKings also jacked up all of the Arizona bats too. Peralta is one of the few I would still pay for.
OF: Matt Kemp ($3,700): A veteran right handed hitter with power against a rookie lefty in a hitter’s park? Don’t mind if I do! Especially for this price. Kemp’s price is down because this is his first game back after missing 20 games with a hamstring injury. I’m going to take advantage while it’s still low.
OF: Adam Jones ($4,500): Jones is 2-6 against Chris Smith so far, but both of them are home runs. Jones is heating up too, batting .325 over the last ten games with two homers and seven RBI. Don’t count on Smith slowing him down any.
OF: Trey Mancini ($3,900): Mancini is perfect against Chris Smith so far. He has a double and two solo homers. Mancini is a huge bargain at this price even if he only hits one home run this time….
OF: Seth Smith ($3,700): Smith may not be leading off with Beckham in town, but he still bats higher in the order. He also has a .990 OPS against right handed pitching since the All Star Break. His price is too low for the success he has had against right handed pitching.
Next: FanDuel MLB Picks and Pivots
Good luck out there, and check out our picks for FanDuel baseball, along with our PGA picks. We also have plenty of NFL stuff to get you ready for football!