FanDuel MLB Daily Picks and Pivots – Thursday August 24
Welcome to the Thursday FanDuel MLB edition of Picks and Pivots, a fantasy baseball column focused on helping you find the best core lineup for today’s Early and Main Slate DFS action!
For those of you finding us for the first time, the concept behind FanDuel MLB Picks and Pivots is to first identify key building blocks that can be used for any roster construction and then identify pivot points to help differentiate your lineup in hopes of a big payday!
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The winning GPP line-up on Wednesday put up scores right at our season average with 283.7 FanDuel points. Over the first 140 slates of the FanDuel MLB season, the average winning score to take down a GPP has been 261.1 points. Looking back at last season, the winning GPP lineup on average scored 255 FanDuel points with a typical roster build that allocated 25% of your salary cap to your SP and the remaining 75% to your hitters.
Over the first 140 slates of the FanDuel MLB season, the average winning score to take down a GPP has been 261.1 points.
Wednesday’s winning GPP scores were built around Luke Weaver‘s 10 K, 61 FanDuel point gem as he dominated the Padres while under 10% ownership in large field GPP’s. Offense was what drove this slate however and big nights from Kevin Kiermaier (56) and Rhys Hoskins (41.7) drove home the biggest scores on the night with their high scoring outputs!
Each day we will break down our top Starting Pitcher and our top hitting stacks of the day while giving you our thoughts on roster build and lineup construction.
As always, we will look to update our picks and final lineup thought prior to lock on our twitter account @FantasyCPR so make sure to give us a follow for all the late breaking lineup news.
Without further ado, let’s get into today’s slate!
FanDuel MLB – Top Starting Pitcher Pick on Early Slate:
Robbie Ray ($9,200): The Early Slate cash position in my estimation is going to be driven by Robbie Ray for better or for worse and getting this decision right is how I think you profit on a small slate like this.
Ray is the absolute clear best arm on the early four game slate as his 30.6% K rate and 13.2% swinging strike rate are second on the day only to Chris Sale and on the early slate when the second closest arm is Rafael Montero you know this is a MASSIVE disconnect.
The issue of course is that Ray is coming off the D.L. for his first start since being hit in the head with a come back and dealing with a concussion. Ray was his dominant self in his final rehab outing, striking out 11 batters in only 4.2 innings and this upside is exactly what you are risking missing out on if you fade him.
There is simply no other pitcher who is going to give you the chance at a 50 point game on the early slate and the match-up against a Mets team with a top 5 strikeout rate over the last month only adds to the appeal.
My opinion is that the price point is reasonable enough where you can still load up on high-end bats while rolling the dice on Ray’s upside. Keep an eye on the buzz around the industry early because there could be a narrative that you need to take a wait and see approach on Ray in his first start back which if that drives ownership down even slightly could give you an added edge on the field!
FanDuel MLB – Top Hitting Spots (EARLY):
Attack Spots not Stacks: Looking over this early slate I think this is a spot you look to build around the best individual match-up and focus less on stacks. Digging into the pitcher’s on this slate the truth is I don’t see a ton of multi-home run/gas can type of pitchers and I see this as a slate where you need to go home run hunting and pick and choose which individual hitters can get you value.
Giancarlo Stanton ($5,300): The highest priced bat on the Early Slate is the Marlins slugger and on a short slate like this I think you need to prioritize getting an elite bat like this that could single handily break the slate. The Marlins have the highest team total on the Early Slate at 5.3 runs facing off against Jake Thompson in Citizen’s Bank Park so getting exposure to this game with the slates best hitter should be your first move as you build your roster today!
Yesterday’s Heroes: The two big hitters on last night’s slate Kevin Kiermaier ($3,100) and Rhys Hoskins ($3,300) are back in action today and worth going back to the well with on this slate as their recent production and individual match-ups put them in a great spot again at a reasonable price.
Kiermaier takes on Tom Koehler in his first start for the Blue Jays and considering he has given up 3 HR/9 , 35% hard contact and has only a 28% ground ball rate, the left-handed lead-off man is squarely back in play today!
Hoskins is absolutely red-hot with four home runs in his last five games so this may be a spot where we simply ride the streak! One thing to note, Vance Worley has been exceptional at limiting home runs this season with a 0.5 HR/9 rate accompanied by a 52% ground ball rate so if the Hoskins hype gets out of control then this could be a spot for a large field fade!
Elite Bats are Weak Positions: Second base is absolutely ugly on this slate so paying up for a bat like Ian Kinsler ($3,600) or Dee Gordon ($3,300) is my preferred strategy as the value propositions at the position could leave those who opt to go that roue digging themselves a hole versus those who opt to pay up!
Third base is a similar spot with Josh Donaldson ($3,900) and Jake Lamb ($3,700) at the top and then not much else so paying up here is another key roster decision for me as I think we can get better punt value elsewhere.
In both instances the price points are close enough where I really think you can play the ownership game and if we get the sense the one player at the position will garner the higher ownership, we can easily pivot to the other bat as the match-ups are favorable for both hitters!
Value in Toronto: The best spot for value in my opinion is Toronto as the match-up against Alex Cobb provides some sneaky one-off targets. Cobb is coming off the D.L as well for his first start and his repertoire has always been a guy who relies heavily on his curve ball (33% to RHB) and his splitter (10% to RHB).
Kendrys Morales ($2,400) and Ryan Goins ($2,400) are the two hitters in the Toronto line-up that hit both these pitches at a higher than league average so the match-up favors their hitting profile and their price points open up a ton of flexibility for us when building our Early Slate roster!
FanDuel MLB – Sample GPP Line-Up and Slate Overview
Please Note: This is NOT an optimized line-up, it is simply illustrative to show the type of roster build we can have using the logic previously laid out in Picks and Pivots. My actual line-up may differ from the line-up shown here.
P: Robbie Ray ($9,200)
C: Chris Hermman ($2,000)
1B: Kendrys Morales ($2,400)
2B: Ian Kinsler ($3,600)
3B: Jake Lamb ($3,700)
SS: Ryan Goins ($2,400)
OF: Giancarlo Stanton ($5,300)
OF: Kevin Kiermaier ($3,100)
OF: Rhys Hoskins ($3,300)
Slate Overview: With Robbie Ray the only true elite arm on this short slate, I am simply going to roll with his upside here at $9.2K and work to build around him with high upside power bats. On a small slate like this we can sometimes take stands with 1-2 stacks but I think this is one where targeting one-off plays and pivoting off ownership may be your best bet to separate yourself from the field!
FanDuel MLB – Main Slate Pitching:
For a short slate of only six games we are absolutely loaded with pitching options as Chris Sale ($11,000) and Stephen Strasburg ($10,200) top the charts today’s as the two highest priced arms and the biggest strikeout pitchers on the slate! The issue in both cases is the opposition as Sale takes on the Indians and Strasburg takes on the Astros, two teams with low strikeout rates and dangerous offenses. Carlos Martinez ($9,800) is the third highest priced arm but has the perfect match-up against a San Diego Padres team that Luke Weaver just struck out 10 batters against!
Here is my take on how to approach this slate, start your build using Carlos Martinez and see what your roster looks like – if you have salary left over, it may be worth a pivot up to Strasburg or Sale strictly as a result of ownership expectations.
Recency bias in DFS is VERY real and gamers will see the 60+ FanDuel point outing from Weaver last night, the tougher match-up for Sale and Strasburg and naturally look to pivot down which makes me believe Martinez could be the chalk pitcher tonight. It may sound crazy on a short slate to think that Sale/Strasburg will get over-looked but my initial take to pay down to Martinez is one that I think the masses will end up on today.
Do not get cute on this slate and try to pay down past these top three, as each of these arms have 50-60 FanDuel point upside and I would look to utilize the arm with the lowest ownership in tournaments and strictly play game theory!
FanDuel MLB – Top Hitting Stacks:
Stars and Scrubs? If you play NBA DFS this terminology will be very familiar to you but in MLB DFS it is a strategy we rarely hear about but the concept is simple – mix 2-3 high-end stars with 2-3 punt plays as opposed to a more balanced roster build.
On this short slate with a good chunk of our budget invested in a top three arm, this strategy may be one we can employ today as we have some elite bats in great spots and some intriguing value punt plays across the industry.
Angels versus Martin Perez: By now you all know the book on Martin Perez, you stack right-handers and avoid left-handed bats as his 1.4 HR/9 and 37% hard contact rate to right-handed bats suggests. You know what team has a good right-handed bat? The Angels and Mike Trout ($5,000)! The question for me is can we build a mini-stack around Trout and I think the player to utilize today is the lead-off man Cameron Maybin ($2,600) as you get a nice 1-2 mini-stack here in the Angels order against one of the best pitchers to target on this slate.
Cubs against Sal Romano: The Cubbies have one of the highest team totals again today and will stay in Great American Ballpark against a pitcher that gives up elevated fly ball rates and nearly 40% hard contact to left-handed batters which could spell trouble. Anthony Rizzo ($4,600) is the premier play again here but do not overlook the sneaky value of a guy like Tommy LaStella ($2,200) at third base who is filling in for an injured Kris Bryant and homered last night as a cheap punt play!
Twins versus Derek Holland: The Twins have the highest implied team total on the slate and Holland is arguably the worst pitcher going tonight so all the right-handed batters are in play for me. Brian Dozier ($4,200) is going to be the first player anyone looking Twins goes towards to building a stack without Dozier is an intriguing GPP strategy. Eduardo Escobar ($3,100) is 5 for 9 with a home run against Holland in his career and is the top SS play in my mind today and we can pair him with right-handed bats like Byron Buxton ($3,200) and Jason Gimenez ($2,400) to attack the same split without the Dozier exposure which could give us an interesting pivot point off the field on this slate!
FanDuel MLB – Sample GPP Line-Up and Slate Overview
Please Note: This is NOT an optimized line-up, it is simply illustrative to show the type of roster build we can have using the logic previously laid out in Picks and Pivots. My actual line-up may differ from the line-up shown here.
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P: Carlos Martinez ($9,800)
C: Chris Gimenez ($2,400)
1B: Anthony Rizzo ($4,600)
2B: Drew Robinson ($2,100)
3B: Tommy LaStella ($2,300)
SS: Eduardo Escobar ($3,100)
OF: Byron Buxton ($3,200)
OF: Mike Trout ($5,000)
OF: Cameron Maybin ($2,600)
Slate Overview: The Main Slate is all about pitching – pay up and do not get cute. Keep an eye on ownership though as Carlos Martinez (although my preferred play) could become chalky against the Padres which would make pivoting up to Strasburg/Sale an interesting GPP strategy on this slate!
Best of luck in your FanDuel MLB contests and stay tuned to Fantasy CPR for all the late breaking lineup news and roster updates!