FanDuel MLB Daily Picks and Pivots – Monday August 28
Welcome to the Monday FanDuel MLB edition of Picks and Pivots, a fantasy baseball column focused on helping you find the best core lineup for today’s Main Slate DFS action!
For those of you finding us for the first time, the concept behind FanDuel MLB Picks and Pivots is to first identify key building blocks that can be used for any roster construction and then identify pivot points to help differentiate your lineup in hopes of a big payday!
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Over the first 141 slates of the FanDuel MLB season, the average winning score to take down a GPP has been 260.3 points. Looking back at last season, the winning GPP lineup on average scored 255 FanDuel points with a typical roster build that allocated 25% of your salary cap to your SP and the remaining 75% to your hitters.
Over the first 141 slates of the FanDuel MLB season, the average winning score to take down a GPP has been 260.3 points.
After a weekend off from DFS due to my annual fantasy football draft, I am ready to jump back into this MLB slate! This weekend was the first set of slates I had taken off since the All-Star Break and sometimes it is helpful to step away from the day-to-day grind of DFS and reset before you jump back in. With the NFL season approaching we are going to start to see MLB interest fade which can give those of us who stay on the grind a big time advantage!
Each day we will break down our top Starting Pitcher and our top hitting stacks of the day while giving you our thoughts on roster build and lineup construction.
As always, we will look to update our picks and final lineup thought prior to lock on our twitter account @FantasyCPR so make sure to give us a follow for all the late breaking lineup news.
Without further ado, let’s get into today’s slate!
FanDuel MLB – Top Starting Pitcher Pick:
Even with only a ten game slate on tap for today we have no shortage of top end arms as Max Scherzer ($11,500), Corey Kluber ($11,000) and Luis Severino ($10,000) all take the mound tonight. These three arms rank 1-3 in K rate and swinging strike rate on this slate and frankly you can make the case for all three of them tonight in tournament formats.
Even if you do not intend to roster one of these arms, their presence alone dictates the roster build and approach you must take as you simply cannot overlook the massive K upside these arms have. As a result of the 50-60 FanDuel point upside each of those arms represents, I think it is critical you shoot for K upside tonight with your starting pitcher and Aaron Nola ($8,600) is the cheaper pivot I would look to if you want to pay down off the top three tonight!
Over his last 12 starts, Nola has put up 50 or more FanDuel points in six of those outings which is exactly the kind of upside I am looking for on this slate. As a comparison, over the same number of starts, Severino has only topped the 50 point mark five times, Kluber eight times and Scherzer six times so Nola belongs in this elite class for $2-3k cheaper!
Nola has been dominant all season against right-handed batters with a 29%K rate that has spiked to 31% over the last month of action. The Braves will likely throw out 3-4 left-handed batters which earlier in the season may have been problematic for Nola but over the last month he has limited LHB to a .079 ISO and .205 wOBA! The Braves as a team versus RHB over the last month have a paltry .108 ISO and .288 wOBA so this spot should be good for Nola from a run prevention perspective even with the caveat that the team K rate is only 15%.
I expect that most who look to pivot down at starting pitcher will see Jeff Samardzjia for only $200 cheaper against the Padres and their slate leading 25% K rate and opt to go this route so Nola could see be somewhat over-looked as a result of this match-up. I am willing to overlook the Braves K rate and focus on the upside that Nola possesses as a pitcher and his string of high ceiling outings this season. Keep in mind that in his only other start against Atlanta this season, Nola dropped 49 FanDuel points with 6 strikeouts, grabbing the WIN/QS while only surrendering one run!
FanDuel MLB – Top Hitting Spots:
Baltimore and Seattle in Camden Yards: The top spot offensively on this slate may very well be n Coors Field with the Rockies and Tigers projected to put up 12 combined runs but I almost always opt to fade the inflated price points and ownership of Coors and instead will focus on the Orioles and Mariners who have a lofty 11 projected game total and represent the two highest projected scoring teams on this slate outside of Colorado!
The Mariners get to take on Chris Tillman and his extreme reverse splits as he has surrendered 2.8 HR/9 with a 39% hard contact rate to right-handed batters this season. What really stands out to me is that his fly ball rate is nearly double to right-handers what it is to left-handers so combining that with the hard contact means we can go home run hunting with the Mariners right-handed bats! Nelson Cruz ($4,100) is the premier play here for me in the outfield and one of the top bats on the slate and you can easily pair him with a reasonably priced Jean Segura ($3,000) at shortstop!
On the Orioles side of the ball they will face off with LHP Marco Gonzales who is giving up a .405 ISO to right-handed hitters this season! The Orioles numbers as a team against left-handed pitching this season are mediocre with only two hitters sporting an ISO over .200 so this is a spot I am less inclined to stack and is more about targeting the two top hitters as a mini-stack. Manny Machado ($4,200) and Jonathan Schoop ($4,100) are priced up and for good reason as they each have handled left-handed pitching exceptionally well this year with a .217 and .289 ISO respectively. The four man Orioles/Mariners core gives you high upside exposure to the hitters in the bets pure match-ups and leaves you enough salary to find some one-off bats in great spots today!
One-Off Targets: Outside the core mentioned above, this is a great slate to find some one-off power bats to round out your roster! Andrew McCutchen ($2,800) might be my favorite one-off play on this slate as his price point is simply too cheap for his match-up with a left-hander considering he has a .489 ISO and .523 wOBA against southpaws this season! Logan Morrison ($3,000) is another bat in a great spot as he takes on Ian Kennedy who is allowing 2.2 HR/9 with a massive 46% hard contact rate and 51% fly ball rate to left-handed batters this season!
FanDuel MLB – Sample GPP Line-Up and Slate Overview
Please Note: This is NOT an optimized line-up, it is simply illustrative to show the type of roster build we can have using the logic previously laid out in Picks and Pivots. My actual line-up may differ from the line-up shown here.
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- Inside the Clubhouse: What I’m hearing as the MLB Trade Deadline nears
- Yankees: Luis Severino has blunt assessment of another miserable outing
P: Aaron Nola ($8,600)
C: $2.1K Punt Option
1B: Logan Morrison ($3,000)
2B: Jonathan Schoop ($4,100)
3B: Manny Machado ($4,200)
SS: Jean Segura ($3,000)
OF: Nelson Cruz ($4,100)
OF: Carlos Gonzalez ($3,100)
OF: Andrew McCutchen ($2,800)
Slate Overview: With so many high-end strikeout arms on this slate paying up for a pitcher with elite K ability is a must and should be where you start your roster build on this slate. There are enough value plays on the board tonight where you can still build a core around the elite bats while mixing and matching value bats to afford the high-end pitcher you choose!
Next: Fantasy Football - Draft Strategy Guide
Best of luck in your FanDuel MLB contests and stay tuned to Fantasy CPR for all the late breaking lineup news and roster updates!