FanDuel MLB Daily Picks and Pivots – Wednesday August 30
Welcome to the Wednesday FanDuel MLB edition of Picks and Pivots, a fantasy baseball column focused on helping you find the best core lineup for today’s Early AND Main Slate DFS action!
For those of you finding us for the first time, the concept behind FanDuel MLB Picks and Pivots is to first identify key building blocks that can be used for any roster construction and then identify pivot points to help differentiate your lineup in hopes of a big payday!
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Wednesday’s winning GPP scores were right above our season average as it took 270.9 FanDuel points to take down a tournament! Over the first 143 slates of the FanDuel MLB season, the average winning score to take down a GPP has been 260.4 points. Looking back at last season, the winning GPP lineup on average scored 255 FanDuel points with a typical roster build that allocated 25% of your salary cap to your SP and the remaining 75% to your hitters.
Over the first 143 slates of the FanDuel MLB season, the average winning score to take down a GPP has been 260.4 points.
Tuesday’s DFS scores spiked across almost every type of contest as we had some massive pitching performances headlined by Chris Sale and his 11 strikeout, 64 FanDuel point performance! Offensively the Reds stack as at the core of our build for Picks and Pivots with a specific focus on Scott Schebler and his ability to crush sliders and in the first inning we were rewarded with a Grand Slam and 41.9 FanDuel points on the night! In our Picks and Pivots column yesterday we preached building a core of Chris Sale and a four man Reds stack and by doing so we were able to push across 200 FanDuel points across the board and have an extremely profitable night!
Each day we will break down our top Starting Pitcher and our top hitting stacks of the day while giving you our thoughts on roster build and lineup construction.
As always, we will look to update our picks and final lineup thought prior to lock on our twitter account @FantasyCPR so make sure to give us a follow for all the late breaking lineup news.
Without further ado, let’s get into today’s slate!
FanDuel MLB – Top Starting Pitcher Pick (Early):
R.A. Dickey ($7,000): FanDuel finally delivers an Early Slate that we can be excited about playing with six games over a four-hour span – so THANK YOU FANDUEL for finally getting this right!
Now you may be wondering why on a slate with Stephen Strasburg and Carlos Martinez on it that I would start by recommending the age-less knuckleballer against the Phillies. The reality is on a short six game slate it is going to be evident to everyone who plays that Strasburg/Martinez are the clear top arms so from a tournament perspective does it make sense to pivot?
In this instance I actually think it does for two reasons – Dickey has a sneaky good strike-out spot that he has dominated twice already this season and I believe the opportunity cost at pitcher is actually a bit lower than you would assume with the two top end arms on this slate.
Let’s start with the later part of the argument first – Strasburg in his two starts since coming off the D.L has struck out 15 batters while only walking two and giving up two ER’s! Even with the promising returns, Strasburg has only managed to put up FanDuel point totals of 40 and 43 FanDuel points and has yet to work past 6 innings in either start with no more than 91 pitches. With the Nationals in cruise control, I actually think the upside for Strasburg is limited here and the price point over $10K makes it difficult to pay off without a near perfect outing from the Nationals right-hander is he is only going to throw 90 pitches again tonight!
Carlos Martinez on the other hand gets the better pure match-up against a high strikeout Milwaukee team in a ballpark he has dominated over his career but this season the returns against this Brewer line-up have left something to be desired. In three starts, Martinez has only struck out 18 batters while putting up FanDuel point totals of 21, 27 and 44 so with an improved Milwaukee line-up this season should we weigh the recent game logs over the career success?
Now this brings me back to Dickey who has faced Philadelphia twice this season, striking out 8 batters in both starts with 49 and 52 FanDuel points. With all the Rhys Hoskins hoopla over the last two weeks, people seem to forget this Philadelphia line-up is still striking out at a 25% clip over the last month and we saw Lucas Sims rack up 7 K’s on Monday night against this same line-up.
Ultimately it comes down to risk tolerance on your part as Strasburg and Martinez are “safe” bets for near 40 FanDuel points but if you are paying $10k for a pitcher I simply need more upside and considering Dickey is priced at only $7K and has already delivered 50+ FD points over two starts against this strikeout prone Phillies team, I will take the savings and shoot for the GPP upside at low ownership!
FanDuel MLB – Early Slate Hitting Spots to Target:
With a game in Coors Field and Ubaldo Jimenez on the mound in Baltimore I think the clear chalk spots for offense will be apparent to most on this slate but there are enough enticing spots to target that I think we can make a case for pivoting off the chalk and building a high upside contrarian line-up.
Washington Nationals versus Adam Conley: With Trea Turner and Jason Werth back in the Nationals line-up this offense is back to being a team we can confidently stack and because of their recent struggles prior to the injury returns, the price points are deflated and have some significant value upside!
Adam Conley on the season is giving up a 37% hard contact rate to right-handed hitters with an elevated 41% fly ball rate and will have to face a stacked right-handed Nationals line-up today that will likely roll our 8 right-handed batters!
Ryan Zimmerman ($3,400) has a massive .317 ISO and .402 WOBA against left-handed pitching this season but actually ranks second on the team behind Anthony Rendon ($3,400) with a .321 ISO and .452 wOBA. Both of these hitters are firmly in play and can be used to mix and match with my Trea Turner ($3,900) who allows you to lock in an elite shortstop with power and speed upside!
Baltimore Orioles RHB versus Ariel Miranda: On the season, Miranda is giving up a massive 57% fly ball rate and 32% hard contact to right-handed bats – so hard contact + fly balls = trouble!
The Orioles are largely a team that struggles with left-handed arms but there are three key bats that are absolutely wearing out southpaws over the last month:
- Tim Beckham ($3,800) – .333 ISO and .472 wOBA
- Manny Machado ($4,000) – .484 ISO and .554 wOBA
- Jonathan Schoop ($3,800) – .250 ISO and .404 wOBA
Both the Orioles and Nationals bats are in prime positions today and if you are multi-entering I love the idea of building around these stacks (ie. swapping Turner/Beckham and Rendon/Machado) if you are looking to make multiple stacks!
BvP is a thing and Giancarlo Stanton likes home runs: There are many in DFS who mock the concept of BvP but as a data point I think it’s incredibly valuable as a hitters comfort zone and past success against a pitcher can make all the difference in their mindset at the plate. Giancarlo Stanton ($5,100) may be facing Stephen Strasburg today but this is an arm he has dominated in his career, going 15 for 41 with 8 doubles and 3 homeruns and considering the hot streak he is on – if you are not playing Strasburg then Stanton is the very first bat that should be in your line-up today!
FanDuel MLB – Sample GPP Line-Up and Slate Overview
Please Note: This is NOT an optimized line-up, it is simply illustrative to show the type of roster build we can have using the logic previously laid out in Picks and Pivots. My actual line-up may differ from the line-up shown here.
P: R.A Dickey ($7,000)
C: Stephen Vogt ($2,100)
1B: Ryan Zimmerman ($3,400)
2B: Jonathan Schoop ($3,800)
3B: Manny Machado ($4,000)
SS: Trea Turner ($3,900)
OF: Giancarlo Stanton ($5,100)
OF: Jason Werth ($3,000)
OF: Michael Taylor ($2,700)
Slate Overview: Looking over this slate, I think it’s a fascinating one for tournaments as we have two clear top arms that will garner the majority of the ownership and some obvious chalk offensive spots. If you are willing to take some chances at starting pitcher you can build some unique line-ups and by dropping down at SP and NOT using Coors bats (what I expect most would do), then you further differentiate yourself even more!
FanDuel MLB – Main Slate Overview
Robbie Ray ($9,400): On the Main Slate there is simply no other arm I am considering outside of Robbie Ray who gets a home start against the Dodgers. Ray’s metrics are simply off the charts this season with a slate leading 31.2% strikeout rate and 13.4% swinging strike rate which gives us the ability to capture massive strikeout upside for under $10k – sign me up!
One thing to note – Cody Bellinger is expected back in the line-up today for the Dodgers so this match-up does becoming a bit more challenging but Ray has faced this Dodger team three times already this season and racked up double-digit K’s in two of those three starts so the upside is very real!
The price point for Ray is simply too cheap relative to his strike-out upside and with no realistic pivots (sorry I am not going to pay essentially the same price for Dallas Keuchel against Texas or an inconsistent Jose Berrios) so Ray will be in 100% of my tournament line-ups tonight!
Another night of Reds offense: After a night where the Reds offense got to feast on Chris Flexen they now get to take on Rafael Montero and I will be going right back to the well here! The issue Flexen had last night was that he issues too many walks and the Reds are a patient offense and Montero, although he has a bit more K ability, has much of the same problem with an 11% walk rate this year.
Because of the walks, I think you need to go all in on a stack here rather than simply take one-offs as you could be left paying $4k for Joey Votto and watching him walk 4 times. With no real salary restrictions on this slate due to Ray’s price point, I will go right back to bats that served me so well last night and load up on Joey Votto ($4,200), Adam Duvall ($3,300), Scott Schebler ($3,000) and Billy Hamilton ($2,800).
On the other side of this game the Mets get to face off with Homer Bailey so do NOT overlook the Mets bats if you need cheap value. If Jose Reyes ($2,500) is batting lead-off and Travis d’Arnaud ($2,000) remains in the five hole then the Mets offense becomes a great way to mix and match cheap punt plays in an elite hitting spot!
Twins right-handed batters again: So this slate is feeling very similar to last night as the Reds and Twins are two of the top offenses and with no Coors Field, I expect these spots to be quite popular. The Twins take on Derek Holland and his .266 ISO and .404 wOBA to right-handed hitters so going back to the usual Twins right-handed batters is firmly in play tonight with Brian Dozier ($4,200) and the red-hot Jorge Polanco ($3,600) as prime targets in the infield!
FanDuel MLB – Sample GPP Line-Up and Slate Overview
Please Note: This is NOT an optimized line-up, it is simply illustrative to show the type of roster build we can have using the logic previously laid out in Picks and Pivots. My actual line-up may differ from the line-up shown here.
More from FanSided
- MLB Rumors: Justin Verlander has a clear suitor, but it comes with a catch
- MLB Rumors: Braves trade grade, Cardinals trade bait, Red Sox selling
- USMNT news: Turner to Forest, Trusty to Sheffield, Reynolds to Westerlo
- Inside the Clubhouse: What I’m hearing as the MLB Trade Deadline nears
- Yankees: Luis Severino has blunt assessment of another miserable outing
P: Robbie Ray ($9,400)
C: Travis d’Arnaud ($2,000)
1B: Joey Votto ($4,200)
2B: Brian Dozier ($4,200)
3B: Jorge Polanco ($3,600)
SS: Jose Reyes ($2,500)
OF: Adam Duvall ($3,300)
OF: Scott Schebler ($3,000)
OF: Billy Hamilton ($2,800)
Slate Overview: The Early Slate feels like a great GPP dart kind of slate but the Main Slate frankly feels incredibly cut and dry to me. Robbie Ray is the unquestioned top strikeout arm and the price point at only $9.4K is simply too low! The Reds and Twins are the premier offenses again tonight and I simply see no reason to pivot off them with Rafael Montero and Derek Holland on the hill!
Best of luck in your FanDuel MLB contests and stay tuned to Fantasy CPR for all the latest DFS news analysis and roster insight!