Main DraftKings MLB Picks August 31: Pay Up For Madison Bumgarner
By Mike Marteny
DraftKings Main MLB Picks For August 31
We only have six games in the main DraftKings tournament, which makes it one of the smaller main ones we will see. There are still plenty of good pitchers going here. Who can we afford? Who is worth the price? Let’s check it out!
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The money line last night was up a ways to 120.85. I put one lineup in the money despite having Travis Wood. Mike Trout was a huge boost, as was Berrios.
The winning lineup was way up to 246.1. He came up huge by gambling and winning on Rick Porcello. His Twins and Angels hybrid stack was a monster tonight.
We will provide you with several options to build your lineup here. Want to spend all your money on pitchers and play bargain bats? We will highlight who is worth the money. Want to punt arms and pay up for the big boppers? We can help you with that as well, and everything in between!
For you first time players, if you would like a bonus of 25% of your first deposit, use this link for the referral bonus! Then continue reading for tips on how to turn those DraftKings dollars into more!
Next: DraftKings Pitcher Plays
Top Tier:
The current Cardinals have only faced Madison Bumgarner 60 times. 38 of those are from Dexter Fowler alone. They have hit him well average wise, but have just one run and nine strikeouts in those 60 at bats. MadBum has quietly put together a 2.66 ERA in his last ten starts. He is a very strong play against a middling Cardinals offense in San Francisco.
To me, Gio Gonzalez is too expensive against a team that has hit .269 with four homers and 1 runs off of him in only 78 at bats. On top of that, Gonzalez has a 6.00 ERA in three career Miller Park starts. There is way too much risk involved here for me.
The Braves are only hitting .213 against Kyle Hendricks in 61 at bats, but they have scored nine runs in that span and only struck out 15 times. On the other hand, that is a pretty good strikeout total for Hendricks. Hendricks has also proven that he can handle Wrigley Field. I’m not overly fond of his price here, but there is a steep drop between the upper and middle tier tonight. If you are fading MadBum, Hendricks is the next best option.
Middle Tier:
Zach Davies has held the Nationals to a .220 average in 41 at bats with only three runs and ten strikeouts. He has also been great over his last ten games, posting a 2.34 ERA. Now the bad news: Davies has a 5.97 ERA in 13 home starts this season. Even his recent dominant streak featured two games in Milwaukee in which he gave up five or more earned runs. One was against the Twins and the other was against the Phillies. That’s how you take something that looks great on paper and turn it into a huge risk.
Eduardo Rodriguez is a bit tempting at his price. The Yankees are hitting .259 against him in 112 at bats, but they only have five homers and nine runs scored. The 22 strikeouts is a solid total as well. On top of that, Rodriguez has a 1.38 ERA in four career starts at Yankee Stadium. This matchup looks dangerous, but Rodriguez has proven he can handle things in the Big Apple.
The upside is a little less with his mound opponent, CC Sabathia. The Red Sox are only hitting .185 against Sabathia in 168 at bats, but they do have 16 runs scored despite only three homers. Sabathia has been solid lately, posting a 3.46 ERA over his last ten starts, but he still has a 5.08 ERA at home this year.
Bargain Pitchers:
There isn’t a lot to like in this tier once again, but there are a couple of interesting statistical anomalies. For instance, the Orioles are hitting just .188 against Marco Estrada, but they have 13 homers and 29 runs in 202 at bats. No thanks.
A safer place to attack here is the Marlins-Phillies game in Marlins Park. It’s a pitcher’s park, so the risk factor is down significantly. Ben Lively has a solid 3.98 road ERA in five starts, but is winless in those starts with only 11 strikeouts in 31.2 innings. That’s the main reason his price is so low. Lively just doesn’t strike anyone out. However, the Marlins just aren’t really built to score a dozen runs a game. There is a strong chance that Lively at least gets a quality start.
Odrisamer Despaigne was very good for six innings in his spot start against the Padres his last time out. Like Lively, he doesn’t strike out many, but the Phillies are in kind of a funk lately. He could throw six more quality innings in this one.
Top Tier:
Don’t worry too much about Antony Rizzo facing a lefty. He is still an elite play. Rizzo is actually hitting lefties better than righties this year (.283 to .278), and he has ten homers in only 127 at bats against left handed pitching. Kris Bryant is a strong play as well against Sean Newcomb.
Rhys Hoskins could have a harder time hitting it out of Marlins Park, but I’m not a huge believer in Odrisamer Despaigne. There could be value here.
Anthony Rendon is a little cheaper than usual, and he is 2-7 with a walk, a double, and a RBI against Davies. He is worth a play against a pitcher that has really struggled at home this year.
Middle Tier:
Despite the lefty-lefty matchup, Matt Carpenter is 3-5 with a walk, two doubles, and a RBI in his career against Madison Bumgarner. Carpenter could still be productive for his price point tonight even if MadBum puts together another strong outing.
The price on Rafael Devers is free falling right now due to his slump, but he is 1-2 in his career against Sabathia. I don’t really trust CC at home, and Devers is a cheap place to get exposure. So is Sandy Leon, who is 3-10 with two walks, a homer, and five RBI against Sabathia in his career.
Bargain Shoppers:
A large percentage of the Brewers’ power comes from the left side, which limits them against guys like Gio Gonzalez. However, there could still be a way to attack this. If Hernan Perez is in the lineup, he could be a strong play. Perez is 3-10 with two doubles, a homer, and three RBI in his career against Gio. Even Eric Thames is 2-4 against him, just don’t expect a home run.
Welington Castillo could be the steal of the night. He only costs $3,300, and he is 8-32 with a walk, a double, four homers, five runs scored, and eight RBI in his career against Marco Estrada so far. Chris Davis has taken Estrada deep twice, but he only has three hits in 25 at bats against him in his career.
Cameron Rupp should be back in there for the Phils. He is 1-2 with a three run homer in his career against Odrisamer Despaigne, and he will set you back only $3,000.
Miguel Montero is 1-3 with a solo homer in his career against Jeremy Hellickson. Most Blue Jays don’t have the great career numbers that you would expect against Hellickson, but that doesn’t necessarily mean that they are bad plays. After all, Hellickson has allowed 19 runs (18 earned) with seven homers over his last four starts.
Top Tier:
If the Nationals can add to Davies’ issues at home, Daniel Murphy will be right in the middle of it. He is only 2-9 off of him so far, but he has doubled, scored twice, and driven in two. Howie Kendrick could be a good play as well. Oh, and Trea Turner is back! If you want to pay the same price for him as he was before he got hurt, be my guest.
Middle Tier:
Cesar Hernandez is perfect against Odrisamer Despaigne so far. He has a double, a triple, a run scored, and a RBI so far. He is a solid play batting leadoff for the Phillies.
Javier Baez is also perfect against Sean Newcomb. He has two singles and a solo homer in his career against Newcomb, and could be a steal at Wrigley tonight.
Bargain Shoppers:
Brandon Crawford and Joe Panik both just make it on this tier priced at $3,500, but they could perform well above that price. Crawford is 6-8 with three doubles, a triple, two runs scored, and a RBI. Panik is 2-5 with a walk, two doubles, and a RBI. They likely wont break the homerless drought at home, but extra base hits can also rack up points in a hurry.
If Ryan Flaherty gets a start here, I want him in my lineup. Flaherty is 3-11 with two walks, two homers, and five RBI in his career against Marco Estrada. Just in case you are wondering, Tim Beckham is 1-10 lifetime with five strikeouts against Estrada. Not that that will stop me from using him…..
Jonathan Villar is 5-11(.455) with three doubles, two runs scored, and two RBI in his career against Gio Gonzalez. Milwaukee has enough right handed hitters to take advantage of Gio Gonzalez.
Ryan Goins is 3-8 with a triple, two runs scored, and two RBi against Jeremy Hellickson. This could be a high scoring game, so cheap exposure is never a bad thing.
Next: Top Outfield Plays
Top Tier:
Giancarlo Stanton leads the majors in home runs, and costs as much as the pitcher that he is facing. That is usually a very good sign. Marcell Ozuna is worth a look as well.
Mookie Betts is 7-20 with two walks, a double, and two RBI against CC Sabathia. Rajai Davis has six runs scored and five steals against Sabathia, but he is just 9-52(.173) against him.
Adam Jones and Mark Trumbo have both homered off of Marco Estrada in the past, but you know their averages aren’t that great since the whole team is only hitting .188 off of Estrada.
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Middle Tier:
Matt Kemp is only 3-13 off of Kyle Hendricks, but he does have a homer and three RBI. Nick Markakis comes cheap, and is 3-8 with two doubles, a steal, two runs scored, and three RBI agianst Hendricks.
Domingo Santana is 2-6 so far against Gio Gonzalez. Both of those hits are home runs, and he has driven in three. There is another cheap right handed bargain bat against Gio if you’re interested.
Bargain Shoppers:
The Yankees have a lot of outfielders that you may consider here. At the bottom of that list is likely Jacoby Ellsbury, but he has the best past states. Ellsbury is 6-21(.286) with a walk, a double, two solo homers, and five RBI against Eduardo Rodriguez.
Jose Bautista has crushed Jeremy Hellickson in his career. Joey Bats is 12-33(.364) with five walks, a double, a triple, three homers five runs scored, and six RBI in his career against Hellickson. He has even stolen a base!
Nick Williams is $3,100 against a righty. That makes him a solid punt play if you don’t believe in Bautista.
Next: FanDuel MLB Picks and Pivots
Good luck out there, and check out our picks for FanDuel baseball, along with our PGA picks. We also have plenty of NFL stuff to get you ready for football!