FanDuel MLB Daily Picks and Pivots – Monday September 4
Welcome to the Monday FanDuel MLB edition of Picks and Pivots, a fantasy baseball column focused on helping you find the best core lineup for today’s Early AND Main Slate DFS action!
For those of you finding us for the first time, the concept behind FanDuel MLB Picks and Pivots is to first identify key building blocks that can be used for any roster construction and then identify pivot points to help differentiate your lineup in hopes of a big payday!
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Sunday’s winning GPP scores were well above our season average as it took 290.2 FanDuel points to take down a tournament! Over the first 148 slates of the FanDuel MLB season, the average winning score to take down a GPP has been 260.6 points. Looking back at last season, the winning GPP lineup on average scored 255 FanDuel points with a typical roster build that allocated 25% of your salary cap to your SP and the remaining 75% to your hitters.
Over the first 148 slates of the FanDuel MLB season, the average winning score to take down a GPP has been 260.6 points.
Sunday’s Main Slate winning line-ups essentially boiled down to two key players – one of which was featured in Picks and Pivots and one that was not. If you had both you cashed, if you didn’t then you were simply on the outside looking in. Lucas Giolito was our featured Picks and Pivots arm and he delivered in a big way with 10 K’s over 7 innings to rack up 58 FanDuel points at only $6k at 10-15% ownership! Jose Ramirez was the big bat you needed to win as he slugged two home runs and brought home 62 FanDuel points as the Indians put up 11 runs against the Tigers on Sunday!
Each day we will break down our top Starting Pitcher and our top hitting stacks of the day while giving you our thoughts on roster build and lineup construction.
As always, we will look to update our picks and final lineup thought prior to lock on our twitter account @FantasyCPR so make sure to give us a follow for all the late breaking lineup news.
Without further ado, let’s get into today’s slate!
FanDuel MLB – Top Starting Pitcher Pick (EARLY):
Trevor Bauer ($9,000): FanDuel has split up today’s Labor Day action into two somewhat odd slates as the Early Slate is ignoring the three 1PM EST games and starting with the 6 games at 2:05PM.
On this Early Slate we have the pitching chopped up neatly into two tiers with four high-end arms all bunched together in the $9K price range before you head down to the less desirable bargain range! From my perspective I believe paying up for pitching is the way to approach this early slate and although he is the fourth most expensive arm, I think Trevor Bauer is the best play at only $9K.
Bauer steps to the mound in Chicago to take on the White Sox as a massive 205 road favorite which speaks not only to the weak Chicago line-up but also to the fact that the Indians offense gets to tee off on James Shields!
Bauer on the season has a 25.7% K rate which is the highest of any arm on the early slate and will take on a White Sox projected line-up that over the last month has a massive 27.3% K rate! Bauer has actually faced the current White Sox hitters over 80 plate appearances and struck them out at a near 29% clip giving us the elite K upside we want when selecting our pitcher on a one arm site like FanDuel!
FanDuel MLB – Top Hitting Spots (EARLY)
Coors Field: Typically I skip right over Coors Field due to the extreme popularity of the hitters but on today’s slate playing Coors Field might actually be contrarian. How often do we see a game in Coors Field with a total under 10 runs with the Rockies having only a 4.5 projected run total which is 0.6 runs lower than their season average! If there was ever a day to play Coors Field in GPP’s then this would be the day as everyone jumps to more popular spots! The one bat that stands out to me is Ryder Jones ($2,200), the Giants 1B who should be back in the line-up today after a day off on Sunday and anytime I can get a punt play in Coors Field it simply is too juicy of value to pass up!
Los Angeles Angels versus Chris Smith: It really is amazing what the Angels recent trades has meant for their DFS value as the addition of Justin Upton in the heart of the order makes this a desirable stacking spot in the right match-up. Today they take on Chris Smith who I will argue is actually the worst SP on the board (take that James Shields) as he has surrendered 12 HR in 27 innings of work to right-handed batters this season, good for a 3.95 HR/9 rate with 37% hard contact to boot!
Mike Trout ($5,000) and Justin Upton ($3,400) are the premier plays here and I will continue to beat the drum for Luis Valbuena ($3,300) who has a massive .344 ISO and .403 wOBA against right-handed pitching the last month. For comparison sake, over the same time period Mike Trout has a .351 ISO and .495 wOBA which puts Valbuena in elite company for a fraction of the price!
Cleveland Indians versus James Shields: On the early slate the Indians will be the chalk stack against James Shields as they have a run total approaching 6 runs as I write this and just dropped 11 runs on Sunday. If you are playing a large field tournament I could see the strategic fade but if you are playing single entry or smaller GPP’s then I think you simply load up here!
On the season, Shields is giving up 3.38 HR/9 to left-handed batters with a 44% fly ball rate and 35% hard contact rate which will spell trouble against the left-handed/switch hitting heavy Indians line-up!
Jose Ramirez ($3,500) should be mighty popular after his Sunday antics but at a weak 2B spot I simply see no other option (unless you want to pay up for Jonathan Schoop at $4,000). Francisco Lindor ($4,100) is the elite SS play on the slate and you can balance out the salary with Bradley Zimmer ($2,400) who should return to the line-up today with a RHP on the mound!
FanDuel MLB – Sample GPP Line-Up and Slate Overview
Please Note: This is NOT an optimized line-up, it is simply illustrative to show the type of roster build we can have using the logic previously laid out in Picks and Pivots. My actual line-up may differ from the line-up shown here.
P: Trevor Bauer ($9,000)
C: $2.1K Punt Option
1B: Ryder Jones ($2,200)
2B: Jose Ramirez ($3,500)
3B: Luis Valbuena ($3,300)
SS: Francisco Lindor ($4,100)
OF: Bradley Zimmer ($2,400)
OF: Mike Trout ($5,000)
OF: Justin Upton ($3,400)
Slate Overview: The Early Slate strategy for me boils down to locking in one of the top four pitchers and then loading up on Angels/Indians bats. To be clear, I think this strategy will be popular but it does not mean we should fade just for the sake of fading! Chris Smith and James Shields are by far the worst pitchers on the slate so I have no problem eating the chalk and hoping Coors Field attracts more ownership than it should simply because it is a game in Coors. Keep an eye on the weather as well as we have four games on the early slate with winds blowing out at 10 MPH or more, meaning we could see some big time offense!
FanDuel MLB – Top Starting Pitcher Pick (Main):
Robbie Ray ($9,600): Much like the Early Slate, the Main Slate is neatly broken out between a clear top tier and then a bunch of less desirable options which leads me to wanting to pay up at Starting Pitcher on this slate!
Ray on the season has a slate leading 31.5% K rate and a 13.4% swinging strike rate and will take on a Dodgers team he just dominated to the tune of 10K’s and 57 FanDuel points in his last outing. Although the Dodgers are an offense we typically do not want to target pitchers with, the reality is that this is a match-up that Ray has excelled in especially in Dodger stadium.
In two previous starts this season in LA, Ray has put up 13 and 10 K’s and notched 49 and 58 FanDuel points in those outings. The upside here is simply way too high for me to fade as if Ray is on then you are not winning a GPP without him! Ray in his career has faced the Dodgers hitters 156 times and stuck out 55 of them which equates to a monster 35.2% K rate so even as a 150 road underdog this is the horse I am riding tonight in all my GPP lineups!
FanDuel MLB – Top Main Slate Hitting Spots:
Miami Marlins versus A.J. Cole: Let’s be clear, I never seem to get the Marlins right a I stacked them on Friday and Sunday and was left with essentially goose eggs while I faded them Saturday night and they went bombs away! I am going back to the well today against A.J. Cole, a pitcher who they have touched up for 9 ER’s in only 10 innings in two starts this season!
On the season, Cole is giving up 2.25 HR/9 to left-handed hitters with a massive 47% hard contact rate so starting your line-up with Christian Yelich ($3,700) and adding Giancarlo Stanton ($4,600) and his .489 ISO versus RHP the last month gives us exposure to the Marlins power bats without having to full on stack like we have the last few days!
Washington Nationals versus Adam Conley: This game just happened a few days ago and I stacked the Nationals that day and watched Adam Conley work his way out of jam after jam. In that game the Nationals racked up 7 hits and a 43% hard contact rate but Conley was able to limit the damage with an unsustainable 100% left on base rate! With only a 9% swinging strike rate in that game Conley simply was able to dance around trouble by getting the Nationals to hit it at Marlins defenders and that kind of BABIP luck will run out eventually.
The Nationals line-up is almost back at full strength and simply punishes left-handed pitching as Ryan Zimmerman ($3,400), Anthony Rendon ($3,500) and Howie Kendrick ($3,100) all sport .400 wOBA’s against southpaws this season and make for a cost effective stack with Robbie Ray as your starting pitcher!
FanDuel MLB – Sample GPP Line-Up and Slate Overview
Please Note: This is NOT an optimized line-up, it is simply illustrative to show the type of roster build we can have using the logic previously laid out in Picks and Pivots. My actual line-up may differ from the line-up shown here.
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- Inside the Clubhouse: What I’m hearing as the MLB Trade Deadline nears
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P: Robbie Ray ($9,600)
C: Raudy Read ($2,000)
1B: Ryan Zimmerman ($3,400)
2B: Rougned Odor ($3,000)
3B: Anthony Rendon ($3,500)
SS: Enrique Hernandez ($2,000)
OF: Giancarlo Stanton ($4,600)
OF: Christian Yelich ($3,700)
OF: Howie Kendrick ($3,100)
Slate Overview: Similar to the Early Slate, I think you simply pay up for pitching and then work your line-ups around it. The Marlins/Nationals game is the one I am most interested in targeting and on a short slate like this I think you can use punt options like Enrique Hernandez ($2,000) to fill in at SS even against your starting pitcher!
Next: Fantasy Football Late Round Targets
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