DraftKings MLB Picks For September 5: Fade deGrom At Your Own Risk

MIAMI, FL – JULY 11: A detail of the MLB logo on a pair of pants during batting practice for the 88th MLB All-Star Game at Marlins Park on July 11, 2017 in Miami, Florida. (Photo by Mark Brown/Getty Images) /

DraftKings MLB Picks For September 5

We have a full 15 game slate today, highlighted by a couple of aces, including Verlander’s first start for a team other than the Tigers. We also have a sizable middle tier with a few solid options in there. Who are our best picks for today? Let’s check out some stats!

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We will provide you with several options to build your lineup here. Want to spend all your money on pitchers and play bargain bats? We will highlight who is worth the money. Want to punt arms and pay up for the big boppers? We can help you with that as well, and everything in between!

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Next: DraftKings Pitcher Plays

ST. LOUIS, MO – AUGUST 13: Michael Wacha #52 of the St. Louis Cardinals delivers a pitch against the Atlanta Braves in the first inning at Busch Stadium on August 13, 2017 in St. Louis, Missouri. (Photo by Dilip Vishwanat/Getty Images) /

Top Tier:

Jacob deGrom is the most expensive pitcher out there for a reason. The Phillies are hitting just .200 off of him in 110 at bats with only one homer and four runs to go with 30 strikeouts. I’m honestly surprised that deGrom’s price isn’t higher. He has given up just three runs over 19.2 innings against the Phillies this year.

I know you want to start Stephen Strasburg today, especially at Marlins Park. Don’t give in to the temptation. Strasburg has a 4.76 ERA in nine carer starts at Marlins Park. On top of that, the Fish are hitting .260 with seven homers and 27 runs in 219 at bats with only 56 strikeouts. deGrom has a much better chance of giving you ample return on your investment. I really doubt that Strasburg does.

Justin Verlander is going to be a popular play in his first game for the Astros, but his career numbers against Seattle aren’t good enough for me to want to spend this much on Verlander. The Mariners are hitting .234 with five homers and 29 runs in 231 at bats. The 60 strikeouts and low homer totals are nice, but I want a little more if I’m shelling out this much for a pitcher. That said, he is a suitable fade for deGrom if you want to stay in the elite tier.

Zack Greinke‘s career numbers against the Dodgers are not great, but he does have a 2.30 ERA in 49 career starts at Dodger Stadium. If you roll with Greinke over Verlander, I wouldn’t blame you, even though the Dodger offense is pretty darn good. Greinke would be a happy guy if Seager were out another game though.

The Pirates are hitting just .214 with one homer and only three runs in 84 at bats against Kyle Hendricks. Hendricks also has a strong 3.10 ERA in four career starts at PNC Park. If you don’t want to pay up for the elite tier, Hendricks provides a solid pivot play that may go unnoticed with all of the other big names out there.

Middle Tier:

Zach Davies has a stellar 2.31 ERA over his last ten starts, and a brilliant 2.13 ERA in 14 road starts this year. He also sports a 2.25 ERA in his career at Great American Ballpark. Now the bad news. The Reds are hitting .278 with four homers and 12 runs in 108 at bats against Davies. Which set of stats do you trust?

Garrett Richards is making his first start of the season, and he looks to be in a very good spot. The A’s are hitting just .170 against him in 47 at bats with a homer and four runs. Richards isn’t a high strikeout guy, but the A’s are free swinging lately. Richards likely wont go very deep into the game which limits his value, but the price is still right even if he only goes five innings.

Bargain Pitchers:

Michael Wacha‘s recent struggles land him down here, but he has dominated the current Padres team. They are hitting a pathetic .095 in 21 at bats with only one runs and four strikeouts. It isn’t just this incarnation of the Padres. Wacha has a 2.25 career ERA at Petco Park. He is a really strong play at this price, and seems to be the easy choice for our second pitcher.

Marco Estrada has the better numbers against the Red Sox (.211 average, five homers, 17 runs in 185 at bats), but Eduardo Rodriguez is pitching better this year. He has held the Blue Jays to a .212 average in 85 at bats, but they have homered four times and driven in 12. The 20 strikeouts will help, but both of these guys carry some risk here.

Ben Lively is facing the Mets. That alone makes him worth considering. However, the Mets beat up on the Phillies yesterday, and Lively only has 34 strikeouts in 59.2 innings pitched. That means if he gets in trouble, we likely wont have strikeouts to bail us out. That makes Lively much more at risk for a bad outing.

Miguel Gonzalez was brilliant in August for the White Sox. That got him shipped to a contender. It wont be easy for him at SunTrust Park, but it is worth noting that he is pitching better now than at any point in his career, and the Braves aren’t that great of an offense.

Bartolo Colon has had decent numbers with the Twins, and facing a team like the Rays really enhances his strikeout potential. However, the Rays did well against Jose Berrios last night, and Berrios is quite a bit better than Colon. The Rays are hitting a solid .264 against Colon in 91 at bats, but they don’t have a homer and only nine runs. Colon could put up a quality start for a bargain price. He could also get run out of the building.

CINCINNATI, OH – SEPTEMBER 04: Eric Thames #7 of the Milwaukee Brewers hits a single in the second inning during the game against the Cincinnati Reds at Great American Ball Park on September 4, 2017 in Cincinnati, Ohio. (Photo by Andy Lyons/Getty Images) /

Top Tier:

The Orioles have hammered CC Sabathia in his career. You can start your O’s stack with Manny Machado, who is 17-48(.354) with three walks, six doubles, two homers, six runs scored, and ten RBI off of Sabathia. Welington Castillo is a strong pick if he play. Castillo is 2-6 with a homer and two RBI in his career against CC.

Edwin Encarnacion is 1-2 with a two run homer against David Holmberg already. Jose Ramirez is worth a look at either second or third tonight against the young lefty.

Hyun-Jin Ryu has been terrible against Arizona. A big reason for that is Paul Goldschmidt. Goldy is 9-21(.429) with two walks, two doubles, two homers, three runs scored, and seven RBI against Ryu. Chris Hermrmann has homered off of him for his only hit in two at bats.

The Cubs are 12-28 overall against Steven Brault. Kris Bryant is the only one to homer off of him so far, but more could be on the way. Bryant is 3-4 with a walk, a homer, four runs scored, and two RBI. Anthony Rizzo doesn’t have a hit, but he has two walks, three runs scored, and a RBI off of Brault.

You have a pitcher that struggles against left handed pitching in a park that caters to left handed power. Joey Gallo is worth a start in any format tonight, and could be especially fruitful on DraftKings where they reward home runs.

Ty Blach has been pretty bad at any stadium that has a mound in it this year. His 5.57 ERA on the road points to a Rockies stack tonight, especially of right handed hitters. Nolan Arenado is 5-8 with a double, a triple, and three RBI already against Blach. Mark Reynolds is just 1-6 so far, but he loves Coors Field.

Freddie Freeman is always worth a look against a right handed starter at SunTrust Park. Kurt Suzuki is the only current Brave to face Miguel Gonzalez. He is 4-8 with a walk, a double, a run scored, and three RBI off of him. Start Suzuki if the Braves do.

Zach Davies has been brilliant lately, but the Reds have hit him hard in his career. Joey Votto is 6-17(.353) with a walk, a homer, two runs scored, and two RBI against Davies.

It seems as though every Royal has hit Anibal Sanchez well. Eric Hosmer should be worth his lofty price tonight. Hosmer is 14-40(.350) with four walks, four doubles, a homer, two steals, eight runs scored, and six RBI against Sanchez. Mike Moustakas is only 5-25, but he has walked four times, homered, and driven in three.

If you are planning to pay up here, Cody Bellinger may not be widely played against Zack Greinke. Bellinger is 2-6 with a double and a solo homer against Greinke so far. Justin Turner is 7-19(.368) with a walk, three doubles, a triple, a homer, three runs scored, and five RBI in his career against Greinke.

Middle Tier:

Chase Headley is the only current Yankee that has homered off of Jeremy Hellickson. It is his only hit in five at bats, but Headley has been much better from the left side this year.

Eric Thames has faced Robert Stephenson three times. He has a walk and two homers off of him. Thames’ season numbers against the Reds are brutal. Thames is 16-46 with ten homers and 17 RBI against Reds pitching this year. His prolonged slump is equally brutal, but maybe seeing Red will get him back on track.

The Angels have torched Kendall Graveman so far, so it’s reasonable to expect it to happen again. C.J. Cron is 5-10 with two walks, three doubles, a run scored, and a RBI. Albert Pujols is 12-28(.429) with two walks, a double, three homers, six runs scored, and eight RBI off of Graveman. Luis Valbuena is 6-16 with four walks, a double, a triple, a homer, four runs scored, and two RBI so far against Graveman.

If you are looking to save a little, Adam Lind is 3-4 with a double and a run scored in his career against Odrisamer Despaigne.

Despite the lefty on lefty matchup, Matt Carpenter is 12-44(.273) with four walks, two doubles, two homers, eight runs scored, and six RBI in his career against Travis Wood. Yadier Molina is a bit expensive tonight, but he may be worth it. Molina is 15-45 with four doubles, three homers, nine runs scored, and an impressive 13 RBI against Travis Wood already.

Pablo Sandoval is 5-14 with a walk, two homers, and four RBI in his career against Tyler Chatwood. Granted, none of that is this year, but if Panda is going to start hitting, this would seem to be the place that it would happen.

Don’t look now, but the White Sox are hitting .301 off of Danny Salazar in 83 at bats with six homers and 13 runs scored. The White Sox still aren’t as bad as some make them out to be. Jose Abreu is 8-24 with a walk, a double, three homers, six runs scored, and four RBI against Salazar. Matt Davidson is 2-6 with a homer and four RBI against Salazar already. If you need a cheap catcher, Omar Narvaez is 2-4 with two walks.

Bargain Shoppers:

Marco Estrada has solid numbers against Boston in his career, but he is struggling so badly right now that I would much rather trust Boston hitters against him. Mitch Moreland is a solid place to attack. He is only 3-13(.231) against Estrada, but he has two walks, two runs scored, a homer, and two RBI. Rafael Devers is also a good play against a struggling righty.

All of the Marlins come at a bargain price tonight, and that is a good thing. J.T. Realmuto is 6-162(.375) with two doubles, two triples, and two runs scored against Stephen Strasburg.

Kyle Seager is dirt cheap, and he has hit Justin Verlander well. Seager is 7-19(.368) with two walks, three doubles, two homers, a steal, three runs scored, and eight RBI off of Verlander. He is worth a look when he is this cheap.

Evan Longoria is just $3,100 today, and he is 5-14(.357) with three walsk, two doubles, a run scored, and two RBI against Bartolo Colon. Longoria should put up nice numbers for his price tonight.

MINNEAPOLIS, MN – AUGUST 30: Brian Dozier #2 of the Minnesota Twins hits an RBI infield single against the Chicago White Sox during the seventh inning of the game on August 30, 2017 at Target Field in Minneapolis, Minnesota. The Twins defeated the White Sox 11-1. (Photo by Hannah Foslien/Getty Images) /

Top Tier:

Tim Beckham still hasn’t really cooled down. He is also 4-13(.308) with a walk, a double, and a solo homer in his career against CC Sabathia.

Ariel Miranda has given up 35 homers in 28 starts this year. Paying up for the elite infielders in Houston makes sense today. An Astros stack is definitely in play, but they are expensive. Carlos Correa is a tad better of a bargain than Jose Altuve, but Altuve will get on base more.

Trea Turner has ten steals and a .343 batting average over his last ten games. He is safe to deploy against Despaigne today.

Brian Dozier is 3-9 with three walks, a double, a homer, and two RBI in his career against Jake Odorizzi. With the way the Twins offense is cooking right now, I don’t know that anyone is a bad idea.

If Corey Seager is in the lineup tonight, he is worth a look against Zack Greinke. Seager is 6-11(.545) with five walks, a double, two homers, six runs scored, and four RBI off of Greinke already.

Ian Happ is perfect against Steven Brault with a walk and a solo homer against him. I also like Javier Baez at his price. He is 2-4 with a pair of RBI against Brault.

Middle Tier:

Dustin Pedroia is 11-26(.423) with four walks, three doubles, four runs scored, and four RBI in his career against Marco Estrada. Xander Bogaerts has homered against Estrada, but he is a pathetic 2-23(.087) lifetime against him.

Whit Merrifield is already 3-5 with a steal, two runs scored, and a RBI in his career against Anibal Sanchez. If you are looking to go cheap, Alcides Escobar is 11-40(.275) with three steals, a homer, two runs scored, and four RBI against Sanchez.

Zack Cozart is 5-13(.385) with a double, a triple, a run scored, and a RBI in his career against Zach Davies. If Jose Peraza is in the lineup, he looks like a good play. Peraza is 4-11(.364) with a homer and three RBI off of Davies.

Robinson Cano is 13-50 with three walks, three doubles, a triple, a homer, a steal, six runs scored, and three RBI off of Justin Verlander.

Trevor Story looks very cheap at $3,800. Especially when you consider that he is 3-6 with a solo homer against Ty Blach so far. Pat Valaika is 2-5 with a solo homer, and he comes a tad cheaper and is eligible at third base!

I’m not as big of a fan of Brandon Crawford at this price, but he is better than he has looked most of the season. Crawford is 10-34(.294) with three walks, a homer, and three RBI against Tyler Chatwood.

Bargain Shoppers:

If you are looking for bargains, the Blue Jays middle infield could provide plenty. Ryan Goins is 1-2 with a three run homer against Eduardo Rodriguez. Darwin Barney is 1-3 with a walk and a solo homer. Both of them are $3,000 or less.

Ian Kinsler is way too cheap tonight against Jason Vargas. Kinsler is 22-62(.355) with three walks, eight doubles, two triples, two homers, two steals, nine runs scored, and seven RBI in his career against Vargas. Start him with confidence!

Yolmer Sanchez is 3-6 with a solo homer so far against Danny Salazar. He could be worth a look again tonight.

If Cliff Pennington works his way into the lineup, he may be worth a look tonight. Pennington is 3-8 with a walk and a solo homer in his career against Kendall Graveman. Andrelton Simmons is also worth a look. Simmons is 4-13 with a run scored. More counting stats should be on the way.

Rougned Odor comes a little too cheap against Julio Teheran, who is awful against lefties. Teheran has been better lately, but left handed batters have still given him some issues.

Next: Top Outfield Plays

HOUSTON, TX – JULY 17: George Springer #4 of the Houston Astros hits a sacrifice fly in the eighth inning against the Seattle Mariners at Minute Maid Park on July 17, 2017 in Houston, Texas. (Photo by Bob Levey/Getty Images) /

Top Tier:

Our loading up on Oriole righties isn’t going to stop here. Adam Jones is 23-76(.303) with five walks, four doubles, a triple, five homers, two steals, 14 runs scored, and 15 RBI off of Sabathia. If you are looking to save a little, Mark Trumbo is solid as well. Trumbo is 10-36(.278) with a walk, a double, a homer, three runs scored, and three RBI. If paying up for pitchers put you on a tight budget, Joey Rickard is a great way to get exposure. It doesn’t hurt that he is 4-9 with a walk and a run scored off of CC.

George Springer has destroyed Ariel Miranda so far. Springer is 4-13 with two walks against him. All four hits are home runs, but they are all solo shots. Hey, we don’t mind at 14 points apiece!

The Twins probable starting outfield of Eddie Rosario, Byron Buxton, and Max Kepler are a combined 6-11 with two doubles, a solo homer, and two runs scored against Jake Odorizzi. They may all be good investments tonight.

Okay, so Giancarlo Stanton isn’t discounted much against Strasburg, but he shouldn’t be. Stanton is 15-45 with five walks, eight doubles, three homers, ten runs scored and 11 RBI against him. Marcell Ozuna could be an even better bargain considering that he is 11-35(.314) with a double, a triple, two homers, seven runs scored, and seven RBI in his career against Stephen Strasburg. And he will only set you back $3,500!

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Middle Tier:

Brett Gardner is 6-19(.316) with two walks, three steals, two runs scored, and two RBI in his career against Jeremy Hellickson. He could make some noise batting leadoff against a struggling righty.

While the other Boston outfielders have struggled against Estrada, Rajai Davis has been strong. He is 3-8 with a double, a triple, a homer, two runs scored, and two RBI off of Estrada.

Nelson Cruz is nearly $1,000 cheaper tonight against Verlander, but perhaps he shouldn’t be. Cruz is 9-37(.243) with a walk, four doubles, a homer, two runs scored, and seven RBI off of Verlander.

Austin Jackson and Brandon Guyer continue to hit lefties well. The White Sox are sending youngster David Holmberg to the mound tonight. Cleveland righties are in play, especially Guyer who comes at a big discount.

A.J. Pollock has put up quite a few crooked numbers against Hyun-Jin Ryu. Pollock is 7-21 with four walks, a double, a triple, five runs scored, and three RBI in his career against Ryu.

Melky Cabrera is 18-42(.429) with three doubles, a triple, a steal, six runs scored, and seven RBI in his career off of Anibal Sanchez.

Randal Grichuk may go overlooked in favor of Pham or Fowler, but I would rather go with Grichuk. He is 5-14 with a walk, three doubles, a homer, three runs scored, and three RBI in his career against Travis Wood.

Shin-Soo Choo is 2-3 with a solo homer and two runs scored in his career against Julio Teheran. Nomar Mazara is worth a look as well from the left side.

I’m not sure why Mikie Mahtook is more expensive than Kinsler, but he isn’t that much higher. Mahtook is 1-2 with a two run homer in his career against Jason Vargas.

Adam Duvall is 5-17(.294) with a double, a homer, two runs scored, and four RBI in his career against Zach Davies. It is so tempting to start Davies today, but there is a lot of risk there.

Bargain Shoppers:

Steve Pearce is only 2-8 against Eduardo Rodriguez, but he has a homer and three RBI. He has also been batting in the top third of the order against left handed pitching.

Corey Dickerson is dirt cheap, and is perfect against Bartolo Colon. He has two singles, a triple, two runs scored, and a RBI so far. Peter Bourjos is even cheaper, and he is 5-15 with two walks, a double, a triple, a steal, three runs scored, and a RBI off of Colon.

Next: FanDuel MLB Picks and Pivots

Good luck out there, and check out our picks for FanDuel baseball, along with our PGA picks. We also have plenty of NFL stuff to get you ready for football!