NFL FanDuel Picks and Pivots – Week 1

Welcome to the Week 1 NFL FanDuel edition of Picks and Pivots, a fantasy football column focused on helping you find the best core lineup for this week’s Main Slate of DFS action!

For those of you finding us for the first time, the concept behind NFL FanDuel Picks and Pivots is to first identify key building blocks that can be used for any roster construction and then identify pivot points to help differentiate your lineup in hopes of a big payday!

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Over the course of the season we will use this space to recap previous week’s winning GPP line-ups and look to identify the trends in roster build/scores to help you dig a little deeper when building your line-ups each week.

Picks and Pivots is not a simple “best plays” column but rather it focuses on slate strategy and roster construction to help give you insight into how I will look to play this slate!

As always, we will look to update our picks and final lineup thought  prior to lock on our twitter account @FantasyCPR so make sure to give us a follow for all the late breaking lineup news.

Without further ado, let’s get into this week’s slate!

NFL FanDuel – Where to Stack:

One of the cornerstone strategies I take in building my GPP rosters is building a stack that has a high correlation on both sides of the game so that I maximize my points across a potential shootout. In some weeks the shoot-out spots will be obvious and chalky but in Week 1 I think we can take advantage of those looking to roster the “name” players rather than focusing on the best pure match-up.

Oakland at Tennessee: From an overall Vegas perspective no game stands out more than this one as it has a slate leading 51 over/under with both teams projected to score over 25 points and a 2 point spread which literally checks all the boxes – high scoring, close game – let’s stack it!

Last season, the Raiders and Titans had the 22nd and 24th ranked defenses in terms of DVOA, ranking in the bottom six against opposing passing offenses so this has massive potential for a shoot-out through the air that may get over-looked!

Derek Carr ($7,700) returns behind center for the Raiders in a favorable match-up against a suspect Titans passing defense that was ranked 28th against opposing QB’s last season and after a strong pre-season I think we could see Carr come out firing in his first game back since injury. Last season Carr showed his GPP upside with eight of his fifteen games going for 20 or more FanDuel points and the fact there are ten QB’s priced above him, he could get lost in the shuffle this week!

The beautiful thing about stacking Carr in DFS is that he has maybe the most easy to figure out WR corp in all of the NFL as Amari Cooper ($7,600) and Michael Crabtree ($6,900) accounted for over 50% of the Raiders pass targets. With many QB/WR stacks you are playing a guessing game on where the targets will go but that is simply not the case with the Raiders and when you add in the fact that the Titans were 31st in the league against opposing WR’s last season, this has all the makings of a high upside stack!

With so much of the off-season focus on the addition of Marshawn Lynch I do expect people to go that route in Week 1 but I am going to take a wait and see approach against a Titans defense that actually gave up the second fewest points to opposing RB’s on the season.

With a core Raiders stack I want to ensure I have correlation on the other side of this game with the Titans as I expect points to be scored in bunches. Last season the Raiders biggest weakness was at Tight End where they were ranked 24th so firing up Delanie Walker ($6,100) who seems a lock for 6-8 targets per game gives you sneaky upside at a tough to fill TE position! Outside of Walker the Titans passing game is one with a ton of upside due to their young crop of WR’s but early in the season I expect Marcus Mariota to lean on the veteran presence of Eric Decker ($6,500) until the rookies are ready to take on an expanded role!

With a crowded backfield for the Titans I think my core stack will be built solely around the passing attacks in the highest projected scoring game on the slate in what should be a close game between two high upside offenses! If the Raiders offense can get clicking early than the Titans will have no choice but to fire back with their passing attack which gives us the potential for a shoot-out and I want as much exposure to the passing games as I can get!

NFL FanDuel – Rounding out our Roster:

Running Back Strategy: In Week 1 I expect the running back position to be one of the more predictable spots in terms of strategy as owners work to cram in Le’Veon Bell ($9,300) or David Johnson ($9,400) and as Matt Rogers outlined in his FanDuel NFL Picks article  both players can be cornerstone plays on this slate!

My strategy on this slate is to pivot off the two top-tier backs and build a more balanced backfield around two runners that are primed to dominate touches in their respective backfield! First and foremost, Jordan Howard ($7,500) is one of the “safest” plays in terms of sheer usage/volume as the Bears most talented offensive weapon who I expect will be featured over and over against a Falcons defense that was ranked 25th against running backs last season. With no clear back-up and a likely game plan to eat the clock with their ground game, Howard has massive upside from a sheer usage perspective and at this price point allows you the ability to build a more balanced roster.

Correlation between by Defense/RB: One strategy I like to use when selecting my defense is to find a team that I think will be playing from ahead and force the opposing team into mistake, than pairing that defense with a running back from the same team who will be tasked with eating up clock as the offense leans on the ground game to hold the lead.

I am a Jets Fan. Yes I said it. It feels dirty to write that and I can tell you I have never been less excited for a Jets season to start due to the complete lack of talent this squad has! This team has no weapons, a retread veteran QB in Josh McCown and has to play on the road opening week which means I am ALL IN on the Bills Defense ($4,700). I do not expect this to be a hot take or even a remotely contrarian play but watching the Jets in the pre-season, this is the absolute worst offense you can imagine and once the Bills get up on the Jets and force them to throw it becomes a pin your ears back and hunt for the sacks/turnovers kind of game!

What this also means for me is that LeSean McCoy ($8,500) becomes a core play as the center of the Bills offense that frankly has no real passing threat and will attack a Jets defense that was 18th against opposing RB’s last season. This game is going to be ugly but I expect the Bills to lean on their stud for 20-25 touches and if the Bills can force turnovers it could result in short field’s for McCoy and added scoring upside!

NFL FanDuel  – Sample GPP Line-Up and Slate Overview

Please Note: This is NOT an optimized line-up, it is simply illustrative to show the type of roster build we can have using the logic previously laid out in Picks and Pivots. My actual line-up may differ from the line-up shown here.  

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QB: Derek Carr ($7,700)

RB: LeSean McCoy ($8,500)

RB: Jordan Howard ($7,500)

WR: Amari Cooper ($7,600)

WR: Michael Crabtree ($6,900)

WR: Eric Decker ($6,500)

TE: Delanie Walker ($6,100)

K: Connor Barth ($4,500)

DEF: Bills ($4,700)

Slate Overview: In Week 1 I tend to lean on Vegas more so than I would normally to get a feel for the slate and how I want to attack it. In building GPP rosters I am always going to look for a QB/WR stack but try to correlate it with players from the other team in a potential shoot-out game. With the Titans and Raiders projected for the highest game total and a close spread this is the ideal place to attack and it will be at the core of my roster build! I believe making correlation plays is the best path to success in NFL DFS so finding a defense that works well with one of your skill players (like the Bills Defense and Shady McCoy) gives you the ability to be more targeted in your roster approach!

Next: FanDuel NFL Week 1 DFS Line-Up

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