DraftKings MLB Picks September 7: Clayton Kershaw Is Way Above The Pack
By Mike Marteny
DraftKings MLB Picks For September 7
Its a rare occurrence to only have one tournament on a Thursday, but that is where we are tonight! The Yankee-Oriole matinee will not be in any tournament since it is only because of the rainout last night. We still have eight games tonight, which gives us a nice sized slate. The pitching is very top heavy, so we need to find bargains somewhere. Let’s go see where!
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The money line last night was up over 10 points to 121.6. The winning lineup was comparatively low at 205. He used Carlos Carrasco‘s outstanding game against the White Sox and stacked Giants and Rockies.
We will provide you with several options to build your lineup here. Want to spend all your money on pitchers and play bargain bats? We will highlight who is worth the money. Want to punt arms and pay up for the big boppers? We can help you with that as well, and everything in between!
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Next: DraftKings Pitcher Plays
Top Tier:
Clayton Kershaw absolutely dominated the Padres on a 75 pitch limit his last time out. He didn’t allow a run in six innings, and didn’t even allow a ball to reach the outfield! There has been no word of pitch restrictions tonight. Look for Kershaw to dominate a Rockies team that struggles on the road. They are only hitting .222 against him anyway. Kershaw is 21-6 with a 3.05 ERA against the Rockies in his career. He is 12-2 with a 1.62 ERA against the Rockies at Dodger Stadium. There is no one close to Kershaw tonight.
It is hard to pick against Corey Kluber, especially with as dominant has he has been over the last six weeks. You also don’t really need to worry about Guaranteed Rate Field since Kluber has a 2.98 career ERA there in nine starts. The issue here is that the current Sox have hit .266 off of him in 128 at bats with four homers and 12 runs. Now, those numbers aren’t terrible, but if you are ponying up the type of cash it takes to get Kluber, you obviously want better. The real kicker that is turning me off of Kluber is his seven runs allowed in 21.1 innings against the White Sox this season. However, one of those starts was a complete game shutout, so he is capable of living up to this price.
The Pirates have hit Jon Lester pretty well in his career. That said, the Pirates had good past numbers against Quintana as well, and they got nothing off of him. The Pirates are really struggling right now, so I’m not going to recommend staying away from any starter heading into PNC Park. That said, Lester has allowed 16 runs (nine earned) is just 13.1 innings in three starts against Pittsburgh this year. His price is a little too high for me just in case the Pirates dirty him up again.
Middle Tier:
Lance Lynn once again looks like a solid option. The current Padres are hitting .242 against him in 33 at bats and have scored five runs, but Lynn has a 1.99 ERA over his last ten starts. The Padres picked up four runs in six innings against Lynn at Busch Stadium a few weeks ago, but I will take the chance on him in San Diego. His only start at Petco Park was of the quality variety. Tonight’s should be as well.
Tanner Roark‘s price is a little too inflated here. The Phillies are hitting a solid .254 off of him in 134 at bats with 14 runs. I don’t expect him to get hit hard, but he isn’t a big strikeout artist either. Roark is mostly a safe pick. He doesn’t offer a ton of upside, and the higher price than normal take away a bit of the potential value. I prefer him more in cash games, but there is nothing wrong with a bit of stability in a GPP.
Bargain Pitchers:
The bargain tier is not full of good options, but Tyler Mahle might be one just because he has a lot going for him. First off, he was solid in both of his starts so far, both against Pittsburgh. Next, the Mets are pretty awful right now. For the icing on the cake, the Mets are sending the corpse of Matt Harvey to the mound for more punishment. When the Dark Knight takes the mound, it promises to be a dark night for the Mets. Mahle has more going for him than most pitchers you will find in this tier.
Carlos Rodon has a 3.00 ERA since the All Star Break. While that may not be overly impressive, let me give you the impressive part: He has allowed two or fewer runs in seven of those eight starts, and those starts included games against the Dodgers, Indians, Red Sox, and Astros. That start against Cleveland was on July 30 with Rodon allowing only one run in 6.2 innings. There is potential here for a strong start, but likely not a win opposite Kluber.
Top Tier:
Dan Straily has solid numbers in his career against Atlanta, but the problem here is that Straily has a 5.06 ERA since the All Star Break. He has also been markedly worse on the road than at home this year, and SunTrust Park plays as very hitter friendly. Freddie Freeman is 3-8 with a homer, two runs scored, and three RBI against Straily already. He looks like a great pick at either corner position tonight.
We all know that Anthony Rizzo hits everyone, but tonight he gets Jameson Taillon, and Rizzo really loves to face him. Rizzo is 6-11 with a walk, a double, two homers, four runs scored, and three RBI in his career against Taillon. Kris Bryant has also homered off of Taillon, but that is his only hit in nine at bats.
I’m stacking Reds against Matt Harvey. If you have to ask why, you haven’t been paying much attention this year. Matt Harvey got mauled by Houston in his last start. Tonight may not be as bad, but I would not be a bit surprised if it is. Joey Votto needs to be the beginning of any Reds stack. He is 5-12 with a walk, a homer, and two RBI so far against Harvey. He should add to that tonight. Tucker Barnhart comes at a very reasonable price, and gets to face the same struggling pitcher.
Middle Tier:
Josh Bell got nothing last night, but he has a strong history against Lester as well. In fact, it may be even better. Bell is 3-4 with a homer, three runs scored, and two RBI in his career against Lester. If Chris Stewart catches tonight, he could be a great option on the cheap. Stewart is 3-7 with two walks, a homer, two runs scored, and two RBI against Lester.
Kyle Gibson has been “better” lately, but better is a relative term. Some daring DFS players may start him against the Royals, but I don’t trust it because Gibson doesn’t get enough strikeouts to give him a solid floor. Mike Moustakas is 10-28(.357) with four walks, two doubles, a homer, four runs scored, and a RBI against Gibson. If he is in the lineup, Moose is priced right. Salvador Perez has homered twice off of Gibson, but he is only 6-32(.188) overall.
Joe Mauer doesn’t have much for power anymore, but he is hitting .355 since the All Star Break. However, it is tough to pay over $4,000 when you have virtually no shot at a homer. That makes Mauer more for cash games.
Jon Gray struggles on the road, and this is an offense that can take full advantage of that. Justin Turner is 4-15(.267) with two doubles, a run scored, and a RBI. Adrian Gonzalez is solid if he plays. AGon is 5-17(.294) with two walks, a homer, and three RBI against Gray.
Bargain Shoppers:
I really love Jose Abreu at this price. He is 13-40(.325) with four walks, two doubles, four homers, six runs scored, and 11 RBI in his career against Corey Kluber. Kluber has eight straight starts of two runs allowed or less. If the Sox get a run or two off of him, Abreu is pretty much a lock to be why.
Matt Carpenter is 4-14(.286) with a double, a homer, and four RBI in his career against Clayton Richard. He is also leading off for a Cardinals team that could score some runs tonight. Yadier Molina is also worth a look. He is 4-15(.267) with three walks, a double, a solo homer, and four runs scored against Richard.
Top Tier:
I like Aaron Nola, but not tonight. The Nationals are hitting .302 against him in 86 at bats. Daniel Murphy is 7-18(.389) with three doubles, a triple, a homer, four runs scored, and three RBI in his career against Nola. It’s a small sample size, but Trea Turner has a single and a steal in his only at bat against Nola.
Jose Ramirez is an extra base hit machine. He is 5-15 with four walks, a double, a triple, three steals, four runs scored, and three RBI in his career against Carlos Rodon. I wont be lining up Indians to take a crack at Rodon due to his recent string of success, but Ramirez is one of those guys that can get to him.
Zack Cozart is 6-11 with two doubles, a solo homer, and four runs scored already in his career against Matt Harvey, and that was when he wasn’t struggling. Look for a big night from Cozart. Scooter Gennett isn’t as great of a play away from home, but I’m not going to fault you for using him.
Middle Tier:
I like Cesar Hernandez and Freddy Galvis again tonight. Hernandez is 6-22(.273) with three walks, four runs scored, and four steals against Tanner Roark. Galvis comes much cheaper, and he is 5-19(.263) with a double, a homer, a steal, and four RBI against Roark.
Javier Baez is 5-7 with two doubles and a solo homer in his career against Jameson Taillon. Taillon has really struggled lately, posting a 6.75 ERA in his last ten starts. There seems to be no reason for his struggles, which makes it that much tougher to watch. It isn’t going to get better against the Cubs.
Bargain Shoppers:
Jordy Mercer looks like a strong punt play here. Mercer is 6-19(.316) with a walk, two doubles, a homer, four runs scored, and four RBI against Jon Lester.
Lance Lynn really only needs to avoid Yangervis Solarte. Solarte has four of the five RBI against Lynn. And he is still batting cleanup and is still under $3,500.
Once again, Alcides Escobar could be a nice punt play. He is 12-37(.324) with a walk, two doubles, five runs scored, and two RBI off of Kyle Gibson. Whit Merrifield doesn’t have much for past history, but he is reasonably priced batting leadoff and he had three doubles last night.
Ozzie Albies is way too cheap against Dan Straily. Lock him in there at $2,200 and watch the points rack up from Ozzie and the player that you were able to afford because of him.
Next: Top Outfield Plays
Top Tier:
Any Reds stack should include the speedy leadoff man, Billy Hamilton. Adam Duvall and Scott Schebler remain very strong plays due to the struggles of the starter and the weakness of the bullpen.
Giancarlo Stanton facing a rookie left hander in a hitter’s park? It doesn’t really matter what he costs, Stanton should be worth that lofty price tag tonight. Marcell Ozuna looks to be a solid pick as well.
Byron Buxton has a solo homer and a double in two career at bats against Sam Gaviglio. Max Kepler is always worth a look with a right hander on the mound.
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Middle Tier:
Odubel Herrera‘s price is down a bit fresh off a DL stint, but he is 9-24(.375) with a walk, three doubles, four runs scored, and three RBI in his career against Tanner Roark. I really like Nick Williams at his super cheap price. Williams is hitting .272 against righties, and lefties are hitting .283 against Roark. This looks like a great bargain play!
Kyle Schwarber is expensive, but this would look to be the place to take a chance. Taillon is really struggling, so Schwarber’s power could be on display tonight. If you are looking to go cheaper, Jon Jay is perfect against Taillon with two singles, a run scored, and a RBI against him.
Nick Markakis is always solid. Tonight against Dan Straily should be no different. Markakis is 3-12 with a walk, two doubles, a homer, two runs scored, and four RBI so far against Straily. He is a very solid play for the price tonight.
Jose Martinez is hitting .362 against left handed pitching this season in 47 at bats. Clayton Richard is allowing a .309 average against to right handers. This looks like a good spot to play Martinez and Randal Grichuk. Both are very reasonably priced.
Yasiel Puig‘s reverse splits on the season will play nice with Jon Gray’s road struggles. Puig is also 3-7 lifetime against Jon Gray with a double, a walk, a steal, and a run scored.
Bargain Shoppers:
Jayson Werth could be a huge bargain tonight. He is 7-19(.368) with two homers and seven RBI in his career against Aaron Nola, and he will only set you back $3,300.
It could be a night to take a flier on Sean Rodriguez again. He is 11-46(.239) with five walks, three doubles, two homers, three steals, three runs scored, and six RBI in his career against Jon Lester. Not bad for the minimum price! Andrew McCutchen is also reasonably priced, but he is only 7-30(.233) against Lester. However, he does have two walks, a double, a triple, two homers, two steals, three runs scored, and four RBI off of him.
Brandon Guyer is only $3,300, and he destroys left handed pitchers. He is worth a punt play against Carlos Rodon, but it may not come out well. Austin Jackson is a bit higher priced, but he is 5-9 with a steal against Rodon.
The Royals outfield could be a bargain hunter’s paradise. Paulo Orlando is 8-13(.615) with two walks, two doubles, a steal, a RBI, and three runs scored against Kyle Gibson. Alex Gordon has had a miserable season, but he is 10-34(.294) with six walks, two doubles, a homer, four runs scored, and four RBI for the minimum price.
Next: FanDuel MLB Picks and Pivots
Good luck out there, and check out our picks for FanDuel baseball, along with our PGA picks. We also have plenty of NFL stuff to get you ready for football!