FanDuel MLB Daily Picks and Pivots – Thursday September 7

Welcome to the Thursday FanDuel MLB edition of Picks and Pivots, a fantasy baseball column focused on helping you find the best core lineup for today’s Main Slate DFS action!

For those of you finding us for the first time, the concept behind FanDuel MLB Picks and Pivots is to first identify key building blocks that can be used for any roster construction and then identify pivot points to help differentiate your lineup in hopes of a big payday!

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Wednesday’s winning GPP scores were just above our season average as it took 271.4 FanDuel points to take down a tournament! Over the first 151 slates of the FanDuel MLB season, the average winning score to take down a GPP has been 260.7 points. Looking back at last season, the winning GPP lineup on average scored 255 FanDuel points with a typical roster build that allocated 25% of your salary cap to your SP and the remaining 75% to your hitters.

Over the first 151 slates of the FanDuel MLB season, the average winning score to take down a GPP has been 260.7 points.

Wednesday’s Main Slate was dominated by Carlos Carrasco who pitched a complete game 9 strikeout, 61 FanDuel point performance to defeat the Chicago White Sox. Carrasco was the clear best arm on the slate and when paired with Salvador Perez who hit two home runs and dropped 43.9 FanDuel points of his own, you had the basis for a winning GPP night in all contests!

Each day we will break down our top Starting Pitcher and our top hitting stacks of the day while giving you our thoughts on roster build and lineup construction.

As always, we will look to update our picks and final lineup thought  prior to lock on our twitter account @FantasyCPR so make sure to give us a follow for all the late breaking lineup news.

Without further ado, let’s get into today’s slate!

FanDuel MLB – Top Starting Pitcher Pick:

First Off – I know everyone is jacked up about football season so I want to drop a little plug here for Picks and Pivots as if you have loved reading us all season for MLB, check out our Week 1 NFL Picks and Pivots!

Clayton Kershaw ($12,000) versus Corey Kluber ($11,600): Let’s cut to the chase here people – you all have busy lives and you need to get some advice for your DFS rosters and move on with your day! This short eight game slate is all about two arms and which path you choose to go – sure we have other pitchers and if you want to play game theory and fade the two aces for Tanner Roark because YOLO! then have at it.

I am simply going to limit my choices to the two best pitchers and move on from there. Simply look at the metrics – these two arms have the lowest SIERA’s, the two highest K rates and swinging strike rates and they face off with two of the top four opponents in terms of opponent strikeout rate.

Ultimately I am going to choose to ride with Corey Kluber ($11,600) who has a 34.6% K rate which is 3.7% higher than Kershaw’s and his 15.8% swinging strike rate which is 1.6% higher than his higher priced brother in arms!

Both of these aces are massive favorites, Kershaw a -300 home favorite and Kluber -220 road favorite and not surprisingly the Rockies/White Sox have the two lowest team totals on the slate. Both of these pitcher’s have clear 50-60 FanDuel point upside and I think that opting to pivot off them leaves you with too big of a hill to climb to make up with bats. Consider that on tonight’s slate we do not have a single offense projected to eclipse 5 runs and it is not clear there is an offense capable of winning you this slate.

My recommendation is to lock in Kershaw/Kluber as the first step in your roster build and simply pick and choose your bats from there. No need to get cute – play this short slate as smart as you can when it comes to pitcher!

 FanDuel MLB – Top Hitting Spots:

Kershaw versus Kluber and how it shapes your offense: One of the reasons I think it makes sense to lock in Kluber tonight for tournaments is that you get the benefit of using the Rockies bats, who have all been priced to punt levels, against Kershaw.

Hear me out! I know stacking against Kershaw is not the smartest of ideas but there is a game theory strategy here that I think is worth exploring.

Think of it this way – the ownership on this slate is going to be dominated by Kluber and Kershaw and with them being at the same price point it means that the large majority of the field will have the exact same roster build/type. Even if you pick “the right pitcher” you are essentially choosing from the same tier of mediocre bats so where are you really differentiating yourself?

Now let’s consider that both Kluber and Kershaw come in at 25-30% ownership (which I think is likely), by choosing Kluber AND a Rockies stack you are attacking your main competition (Kershaw owners) from both sides by not only fading him as your SP but also loading up with bats against him.

Nolan Arenado ($2,600) and Charlie Blackmon ($2,500) are all world hitting talents who are priced at the same level of guys like Brandon Guyer and I know its Kershaw, but this is a pure price enforcement play in my opinion. Both of these hitters have BvP success against Kershaw the last two years and I recognize that games in Coors Field can skew the pure numbers but the fact that Blackmon is 5 for 14 with two triples and Arenado is 6 for 15 with a home run still tells me that thesebatters are familiar with Kershaw and are confident in their ability to hit him.

This is certainly not a cash game strategy or even a roster construction you want to play high stakes with necessarily but if the Rockies bats can get to Kershaw at these price points you will be able to simply bury the Kershaw GPP line-ups you are competing against!

Cincinnati Reds versus Matt Harvey: It really was not that long ago that Matt Harvey would have been a legit pivot option on a slate with Kershaw/Kluber and now he is one of the top pitchers to stack against – how the Dark Knight as fallen!

Harvey is simply a shell of himself who is getting hit hard each time on the mound, giving up 36% hard contact to left-handed batters and 32% to right-handed batters this season. Harvey has been bit by the home run ball all season long with a 2.8 HR/9 to LHB and 1.6 HR/9 to right-handed batters which actually gets even worse when he pitches at home (3.5 HR/9 to RHB in Citi Field).

Outside of Joey Votto ($4,400), the Reds are priced for value on this slate and when picking a stack to pair with a high end arm we are going to need to live in this $3k price range for our bats. Adam Duvall ($3,000), Scott Schebler ($3,000) and Zack Cozart ($3,100) are all priced fairly and are in an elite position tonight against a broken down Harvey and a brutal Mets bullpen. By locking in a low-cost Rockies stack, it is easy to fit in all four of these Reds bats with Mr. Kluber tonight!

FanDuel MLB – Sample GPP Line-Up and Slate Overview

Please Note: This is NOT an optimized line-up, it is simply illustrative to show the type of roster build we can have using the logic previously laid out in Picks and Pivots. My actual line-up may differ from the line-up shown here.  

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P: Corey Kluber ($11,600)

C: Salvador Perez ($2,400)

1B: Joey Votto ($4,400)

2B: D.J. LeMahieu ($2,400)

3B: Nolan Arenado ($2,600)

SS: Zack Cozart ($3,100)

OF: Scott Schebler ($3,000)

OF: Adam Duvall ($3,000)

OF: Charlie Blackmon ($2,500)

Slate Overview: You would think that a slate with Clayton Kershaw and Corey Kluber would scream cash games or single entry tournaments but I actually think with this roster build it shapes up as more of a large field tournament kind of night where you take some calculated risks. Stacking against Kershaw is never the best long-term idea but the reality is Kershaw is making only his second start off the D.L. and was limited to 70 pitches in his last outing. The Dodgers have no reason to push their ace so if the Rockies can scratch out a few runs off the lefty and get to the bullpen, the low-cost Rockies bats could pay off their salary in a big way. Now if Kershaw goes out and strikes out 15 and your roster is littered with zeroes well you simply tip your cap, pretend you never read this and we move on with our lives!

Next: FanDuel NFL Week 1 PICKS AND PIVOTS!

Best of luck in your FanDuel MLB contests and stay tuned to Fantasy CPR as we get you ready for all the DFS news and analysis and kick off the fantasy football season.