NFL DFS Breakdown: Week 1 Top Picks and Plays

NFL DFS Breakdown Week 1

The time has finally arrived, week one and NFL DFS. While baseball and golf are entertaining, nothing compares to the almighty football season. This year, my articles will be focused on having no focus at all, if that makes sense. Instead of focusing on one sole topic, I’ll look to uncover whatever actionable information is important on any given week. For week one, I’ll be diving into under-priced value plays, exploitable match-ups, and my own personal Skip Bayless level, hot takes.

Top Projected Team Totals Based on Vegas Odds (as of 9/6):

New England – 28.5, Pittsburgh – 27.5, Atlanta – 27.5, Green Bay -27, Carolina 26.5, Tennessee – 26.5

NFL DFS – Underpriced Values:

PHILADELPHIA, PA – JANUARY 01: Head coach Doug Pederson of the Philadelphia Eagles congratulates Zach Ertz

Zach Ertz – PHI (TE) – DraftKings $3500

While Eagles tight end, Zach Ertz has been wildly inconsistent in recent years, he find himself assuming a new role in the offense. With the departure of Jordan Matthews, Zach Ertz is the likely candidate to take over routes in the middle of the field. Looking back to last year, Carson Wentz threw a disproportionate number of short passes, which Ertz is likely to see this year. Not only will Ertz benefit from the absence of Matthews, but he may also benefit from the Eagles avoiding Josh Norman. Norman is expected to shadow newly acquired, Alshon Jeffery, so don’t be surprised if Wentz funnels some of his targets away from the elite cornerback.

Carlos Hyde – SF (RB) – DraftKings $4600

Carlos Hyde is simply too cheap on DraftKings, this week. At only $4600, he’s much more of a bargain on DraftKings and makes for an excellent punt play. While there is some uncertainty in what this Kyle Shanahan offense will look, the best guess, is that Hyde will handle the majority of the work and be a solid three down back. In week three of the preseason, aka the dress rehearsal, Hyde dominated the backfield and was in on 20 of 26 of the first team snaps. Throughout the entire preseason he was in on 48 of the 57 first team snaps.

Terrelle Pryor – WAS (WR) – FanDuel $6200

Terrelle Pryor will get a chance to shine in his new role as the top wide out for a Kirk Cousins led offense. While it may take time for the connection to be 100%, Pryor is too cheap to ignore, on FanDuel. Pryor is much more expensive on DraftKings and will benefit from a terrific matchup against a woeful Eagles’ secondary.

David Johnson – ARI (RB) – FanDuel $9400 and Le’Veon Bell – PIT (RB) – FanDuel $9300

There’s not much analysis that needs to be done here. David Johnson and Le’Veon Bell are the top running back plays almost every week, but from a price standpoint, they are much more affordable on FanDuel this year. DraftKings has rocketed up the prices for these top-level backs, given their workload and upside. If you’re looking to jam in both Johnson and Bell, it’s much easier on FanDuel, this week.

NFL DFS – Match-ups to Exploit

Seattle WR’s vs. Green Bay Cornerbacks

While Green Bay has arguably one of the best offenses in the league, their defensive struggles were too much to overcome last year. You can expect more of the same this year, as they haven’t improved much, and will be hampered by their defensive backs. Damarious Randall, Davon House, Quinten Rollins will struggle to keep wideouts like Doug Baldwin and Paul Richardson in check. Pro Football Focus ranked Randall at 35.8, House at 40.5, and Rollins at 46.2.

Terrelle Pryor vs. Jalen Mills

I touched on Pryor as a value play on FanDuel this week and not only is he underpriced, but he’ll have juicy match-up against the Eagles secondary. While Philadelphia did acquire former Bill, Ronald Darby, we can expect Terrelle Pryor to be put in formations where Jalen Mills will be forced to provide the coverage. Mills is ranked as one of the worst corners in the league by PFF, with a grade of 34.8. He’ll also be giving up four inches to the taller, Pryor.

NFL DFS Hot Takes

Philadelphia wins by at least a touchdown

I’d be remiss if I didn’t talk about how undervalued this Philadelphia Eagles team is this year. Acquisitions like Jeffery, Barnett, and Darby, addressed some of the main issues that plagued this team in recent years. If we go back and look at the efficiency metrics, we’ll find that Philadelphia was much more efficient than their record would indicate, hence the value in this match-up.

More from FanSided

It’s also important to note that the Eagles will get a full season out of right tackle, Lane Johnson. Johnson missed most of the season due to suspension, but will be back in full force this year. Johnson has a PFF grade of 89.4 and his impact on this offensive cannot be overstated. If you don’t believe me, just check out the line movement since this game opened.

David Johnson scores over 30 DraftKings’ points

All signs out of the preseason point to David Johnson receiving the bell cow role again for the Arizona Cardinals, especially with the release of veteran, Chris Johnson. Arizona will matchup with Detroit this week, who is more susceptible through the air, but I would still expect Johnson to get his, in both the running and passing game. Detroit opened as a two point favorite, but we’ve now seen sharp money move the line to Arizona as now the two point favorite.

Houston holds the Jags to less than 10 points

Blake Bortles. I think that about sums it up. Bortles was a train wreck for most of last season and even more so in the preseason. After almost losing his job to Chad Henne in the offseason, I can’t imagine a world in which this Jaguars team has any success. Houston did lose their stud corner A.J. Bouye, but will receive the services of previously injured, J.J. Watt. The combination of Watt and Clowney is one of the most intimidating pass rushes in the league, and with a turnover prone Bortles under center, I think Houston keeps this a low scoring game for Jacksonville.

Next: FanDuel NFL Picks and Pivots for Week 1

Best of luck in your Week 1 NFL DFS contests and stay tuned to Fantasy CPR as we break down all the fantasy football and DFS news and analysis leading you up to kick-off!