Early DraftKings MLB Picks September 10: Is Strasburg Worth The Markup?
By Mike Marteny
DraftKings Early MLB Picks For September 10
We have ten early games, making this the most played DraftKings tournament. For those of you that have not moved on to the NFL yet, or for those of you that like to double dip, we have some good options out there! Let’s highlight where they are.
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We will provide you with several options to build your lineup here. Want to spend all your money on pitchers and play bargain bats? We will highlight who is worth the money. Want to punt arms and pay up for the big boppers? We can help you with that as well, and everything in between!
For you first time players, if you would like a bonus of 25% of your first deposit, use this link for the referral bonus! Then continue reading for tips on how to turn those DraftKings dollars into more!
Next: DraftKings Pitcher Plays
Top Tier:
There is a reason why Stephen Strasburg is so expensive. The Phillies are only hitting .192 against him with only three homers and ten runs in 130 at bats to go with 49 strikeouts. Strasburg has only averaged 22 DraftKings points per game in three games against the Phillies this year, but he has been so dominant lately with a 2.02 ERA in his last ten starts. None of the starts against the Phillies were in that streak. Strasburg looks in line for a big day today.
The White Sox had been in a funk lately until erupting on Shark last night. Today they get Madison Bumgarner, but they continue to hit lefties well. I honestly don’t know what to do about MadBum. He is a solid pivot to Strasburg and a much better bet than deGrom, but I’m still not convinced that he will dominate the Sox. That said, I can’t think of any reason not to use him either.
Jacob deGrom‘s career numbers against the Reds are not great. In fact, the Reds are hitting a robust .294 off of him with four runs in only 34 at bats. That is not to say that he wont dominate the Reds at home, but it should make us pause before shelling out that much money. deGrom has a 4.62 ERA over his last ten games. That game against the Reds is in there. He is not at his best right now, and he gets little run support. We should be able to do better for that kind of money.
Once again, Kyle Hendricks finds himself on the bottom end of the top tier. Once again, he could be a sneaky pick. Hendricks has held the Brewers to a .200 average in 110 at bats with three homers and just eight runs. The 34 strikeouts are a ways above his normal numbers, but we all know the Brewers strike out. Hendricks should outperform at least one of the pitchers above him.
Middle Tier:
J.A. Happ‘s career numbers against Detroit aren’t the greatest, but the Tigers are struggling at the plate lately. Happ has been solid at home with a 3.77 ERA, and he doesn’t have issues with homers, which is about all Detroit does anymore. I’m not letting the success of a couple blind me from what could be a really good day from a mid-tier starter.
The middle tier may be even more loaded than the top in this tournament, and guys like Alex Cobb are why. Cobb has a 3.34 ERA in six career starts at Fenway Park. The Red Sox are also hitting just .233 against him with only one home run and ten runs in 150 at bats. The risk with Cobb is that the doesn’t rack up enough strikeouts to give him a high floor, but this is a very good sample size. Cobb is not going to be highly owned, and he should get a quality start with a great shot at a win opposite Porcello.
I’m just going to put this out there because I want you to have as much information as possible. Zach Davies has an absolutely brilliant 1.76 ERA in his last ten starts, and a 2.02 road ERA this year. That said, the Cubs have scored ten runs on him in just 18 innings. The game is at Wrigley, but the Cubs are hitting .275 off of him in 109 at bats.
The Mets have hit the Reds pretty hard in this series so far, but Sal Romano picked up a solid 16.7 DraftKings points against these guys back on August 29th. There is reason to believe that the can get another quality start at a very reasonable price.
Bargain Pitchers:
Us bargain hunters are going to be sorely disappointed in most of the options in this tier, but there is one that stands out. The irony is that he never stands out. R.A. Dickey‘s numbers are always average. Not great, not bad, just average. That causes him to be overlooked often, but this is one day where he shouldn’t be. The Marlins are only hitting .240 against Dickey with four homers and ten RBI in 104 at bats. Again, average numbers. But if you get those average numbers at today’s price, Dickey could be a nice bargain. He has two quality starts in two tries against Miami this year.
Ivan Nova has solid stats in his career against the Cardinals, but a 6.38 ERA since the All Star Break. How much do you trust past vs. current stats?
Do you want a great example of contradicting stats? A.J. Griffin has allowed 17 homers in just 69 innings pitched this year. However, The Yankees are hitting just .163 against him. Me? Not a chance. I’m considering a Yankees stack, starting with Didi Gregorius, the only one that has homered against Griffin so far.
Top Tier:
For those of you that were not targeting Blue Jays, you should. Not only are they mostly affordable, but the Tigers keep rolling Anibal Sanchez out there, which means we have a great pitcher to stack against. Josh Donaldson is the most expensive, and he may be worth it. Donaldson is 7-24(.292) with a walk, a homer, a steal, four runs scored, and five RBI in his career against Anibal. Kendrys Morales is a solid investment as well. Morales is 8-28(.286) with three walks, two doubles, a homer, seven runs scored, and three RBI against Sanchez.
Bryant and Rizzo. You know why. For what it’s worth, Bryant has the better stats against Zach Davies, going 9-22(.409) with two doubles, a triple, a homer, a steal, six runs scored, and five RBI off of Davies.
It’s SunTrust Park with a weak righty on the hill, so that means Freddie Freeman will be on nearly everyone’s radar. That doesn’t mean that he is an automatic fade though. Matt Adams could be worth a look too if you need to save cash.
Middle Tier:
Nick Castellanos is 5-11 with a walk, a double, a triple, five runs scored, and a RBI in his career against J.A. Happ. James McCann could be a nice play at catcher today since he is 3-8 with a double, a homer, and five RBI off of Happ.
Joe Mauer‘s power is a thing of the past. I get it. However, he can still hit. Just ask Jason Vargas, who despite holding the platoon advantage has still allowed 14 hits to Mauer in 38 at bats(.368). Mauer has nine of the Twins’ 12 total RBI against Vargas and even stole a base!
LoMo and Longo should be on your wish list today. Longoria is 14-55(.255) with four walks, six doubles, two homers, five runs scored, and seven RBI in his career against Rick Porcello. He even stole a base! Morrison is 10-34(294) with three doubles, a homer, four runs scored, and five RBI against Porcello.
Jose Abreu is still reasonably priced for a guy that is as consistent as he is, and he is a big reason that the White Sox have held their own against lefties. Matt Davidson is the only current White Sox player that has faced MadBum. He singled and struck out in his two at bats.
A lefty on the hill means Mike Napoli will get plenty of attention. However, Jordan Montgomery may not go deep into this game, and the Yankees have a really deep bullpen.
Bargain Shoppers:
Rookies aren’t always the safest DFS plays, but Dominic Smith drove in two of the three runs against Sam Romano two weeks ago, and he is just $2,700.
There is a great chance that Tyler Moore wont even play with Justin Bour back, but he should today. Moore is 4-7 with two homers, a walk, and five RBI off of R.A Dickey already.
Are you the type of player that targets players that no one else would consider? May I present to you Tommy Joseph. He will be largely ignored against Stephen Strasburg, but he is 3-12 with two homers, a steal, and three RBI off of him.
Mitch Moreland had a nice game last night, and he is the only current Boston player to hit a homer against Alex Cobb. He could be worth a look if you plan on going cheap at first base.
John Jaso is 6-12 with three walks, a homer, two runs scored, and three RBI in his career against Michael Wacha.
Top Tier:
Ben Lively has been solid this year, but it’s tough to trust him at Nationals Park. Daniel Murphy and Trea Turner could both be in for big games here even if the rest of the offense continues to mostly underachieve.
I’m not going to sit here and tell you to not play Brian Dozier against a lefty. However, he is only 7-26(.269) against Vargas with three runs scored, but no other counting stats.
Middle Tier:
Ian Kinsler is very reasonably priced because he is at the top of an inconsistent lineup. However, he is 5-16(.312) with a walk, a triple, a homer, four runs scored, and three RBI in his career against Happ. If you aren’t rolling with Happ, the Tigers could have a couple of solid bargains.
Xander Bogaerts is one of the few Red Sox players that have hit Alex Cobb well. Bogaerts is 5-11 with a walk, two doubles, and two runs scored against Cobb. That’s pretty successful compared to his teammates against Cobb.
Kolten Wong is 2-6 with a homer and two RBI in his career against Ivan NOva.
Scooter Gennett was the guy that made deGrom’s outing against the Reds bad. Overall, he is 5-13(.385) with a walk, two doubles, a homer, two runs scored, and three RBI against deGrom. deGrom is not at his best right now. Gennett could take advantage again.
Bargain Shoppers:
There are bargains galore for the Rays today. Two of the best are in the middle infield. Danny Espinosa has one hit in three tries against Rick Porcello. It is a two run homer. Brad Miller is a great play at a very low price. Miller is 10-32(.312) with two walks, three doubles, five homers seven runs scored, and nine RBI against Porcello. More food for thought: Porcello has given up a staggering 35 homers this year. Seven of them are to the Rays.
Ryan Goins is a great way to get cheap exposure to Anibal Sanchez. It doesn’t hurt that Goins is 4-6 with two runs scored and a pair of RBI against Sanchez either.
Next: Top Outfield Plays
Top Tier:
There have been a long line of sluggers that simply can’t handle a knuckleball. Giancarlo Stanton is not one of them. Stanton is 9-26(.346) with a walk, two doubles, two homers, three runs scored, and four RBI against R.A. Dickey. Deploy the slugger with confidence.
Aaron Judge kills righties, and he draws one that surrenders an average of a homer every 3.1 innings pitched. His next one is number 40. It could come today!
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Middle Tier:
Jose Bautista‘s price has heated up with this bat, but it still may be worth the little extra today. Bautista is only 4-16 against Anibal Sanchez, but he has three walks, a double, a homer, three runs scored, and five RBI. Michael Saunders is 2-6 with a double, a triple, and a run scored against Sanchez. He could be a great bargain if he plays.
I do like Steven Souza and Corey Dickerson in this tier. Porcello has been better lately than he was early on, but that doesn’t mean much. Souza is still 9-30(.300) with a walk, a homer, a steal, and three runs scored off of Porcello. Dickerson is only 8-32, but he has four doubles, a homer, three runs scored, and three RBI against Porcello.
Every time Kyle Schwarber has the platoon advantage, we all think about using him. It may not be a bad idea here since he has previously homered against Zach Davies in his career.
Bargain Shoppers:
These plays are going to be based solely on how much you believe in what Bartolo Colon has done with the Twins so far. The Royals are 15-41 lifetime against Colon, and most of the damage was done by the outfield. Melky Cabrera is always in play anyway. His 5-8 mark with a double, a triple, and two runs scored is nice as well. Alex Gordon is 3-9 with three walks, a double, a homer three runs scored, and four RBI against Colon. Brandon Moss is 1-3 with a run scored, for whatever that means.
You may wonder why I don’t trust Michael Wacha. I think the Pirates .331 average over 139 at bats sums it up. Adam Frazier is perfecta against Wacha with a double, a single, and a homer. He is practically free. Starling Marte is 7-22(.318) with a walk, a double, a homer, two steals, three runs scored, and three RBI against Wacha, and he is just as free. Gregory Polanco is the same way. Even the struggling Andrew McCutchen is 12-31(.387) with two walks, two doubles, a triple, a homer, four runs scored, and three RBI against Wacha.
Next: FanDuel MLB Picks and Pivots
Good luck out there, and check out our picks for FanDuel baseball, along with our PGA picks. We also have plenty of NFL stuff to get you ready for football!