DraftKings MLB Picks September 12: Which Ace Should We Use?
By Mike Marteny
DraftKings MLB Picks For September 12
My first life goal was to be retired at 21 (thanks Black Flag). That didn’t work. I have now tempered expectations, and was aiming for a Corvette on my 40th birthday. Well, unless I take down a GPP tonight, that isn’t going to happen either. Healthy and happy is the way to go, and I really can’t complain. I have many friends and relatives that never made 40.
We have 14 games tonight, with Kansas City and Seattle hitting the field during the afternoon. I would like to say that I feel good about this slate, but I don’t really. There is a huge elite tier tonight, and the lower tier is barren. What kind of lineup can we make out of this? Let’s check!
We will provide you with several options to build your lineup here. Want to spend all your money on pitchers and play bargain bats? We will highlight who is worth the money. Want to punt arms and pay up for the big boppers? We can help you with that as well, and everything in between!
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Next: DraftKings Pitcher Plays
Top Tier:
Corey Kluber is going to anchor a lot of lineups tonight, but there is risk here. The Tigers are hitting .296 against him in 203 at bats with seven homers and 20 runs. That doesn’t automatically say avoid, but you want better than that if you are breaking the bank for an ace. The Tigers have also scored 13 runs in 22.1 innings against Kluber this season. Kluber was very good in his last outing against the Tigers, so he may reach value, but to me it’s too much of a risk.
It’s Kershaw day, and of course, he dominates the Giants. Even if they haven’t been up all night playing baseball. The Giants are hitting just .189 against Kershaw in 386 at bats with just four homers and 16 runs to go with 92 strikeouts. Oh, and Kershaw has a 1.45 ERA in ten road starts this year. That includes a start at Coors Field! Kershaw also holds a 1.29 career ERA at AT&T Park in 20 starts there. I trust him more than Kluber.
Justin Verlander has dominated the Angels. They are hitting just .180 in 161 at bats with four homers and 13 runs to go with 47 strikeouts. If I had to take any one pitcher from this tier tonight, it’s Verlander. He may be outdone by Kluber, but there is far less risk in going with Verlander. Verlander has allowed just five runs in his last four starts. All were a product of home runs.
Jose Quintana may finally be an elite play in this price tier against the Mets. This offense is a shadow of its former self, and even though Quintana owns a 4.82 ERA in five Wrigley starts, I am willing to overlook that. Come on…..its the Mets!
A lot of people and publications like Gio Gonzalez tonight. I am not one of them. The Braves are hitting .345 against him in 168 at bats, so you know it’s not a fluke. They have 33 runs compared to 39 strikeouts. The Braves have racked up seven runs in just 11.2 innings against Gonzalez this season alone. This isn’t past stats racked up in his early days. They are still doing it to him! The chances of getting value here are pretty slim, even as well as Gio has pitched lately.
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Middle Tier:
Sonny Gray has been solid against the Rays this year, and solid over his career. Is solid enough for you? The Rays are hitting .245 with five homers and 21 runs in 143 at bats with 31 strikeouts. Gray has allowed four runs (seven earned) in 12.1 innings against Tampa this year, but he does have 16 strikeouts. Now for the deciding factor: Gray has a 2.19 ERA in four career starts at Tropicana Field.
Dylan Bundy was knocked around some by the Yankees in his last start, but he should rebound in a big way here. The Blue Jays have scored just one run against Bundy in 13 innings this season with 16 strikeouts. If you are thinking of leaving the elite tier, Bundy is the most likely to get you near elite production.
I never dreamed that I would see Kyle Gibson at the upper end of this tier, but where season long owners are slow, DraftKings is not. Gibson has a 1.69 ERA over his last four starts, and gets a Padres team that is dead last in batting average and second to last in wOBA. The major issue that I have here is that Gibson, despite his recent run of success, still has a 5.99 ERA at home this year.
Gerrit Cole has mostly dominated the current Brewers in his career. They are hitting just .183 against him with five homers and nine runs in 104 at bats. The 29 strikeouts are far above his career rate, so he has heightened strikeout potential as well. The only reason I’m not all in on Cole is that he has a 4.71 ERA in five career Miller Park starts.
Blake Snell has been often overlooked since his return to the majors. That is just fine with us! He has a 3.92 ERA since his return. The problem is that he was really hittable against the Twins in his last start. He didn’t walk anyone, but he gave up two homers and six runs. The Yankees have not hit Snell well so far. They are only hitting .243 with two homers and three runs in 74 at bats to go with a whopping 19 strikeouts. There is value here today, especially since the game is in Tropicana Field.
Lance Lynn‘s run of brilliance keeps right on rolling. His season ERA is now under 3, and it is under 2 in his last dozen starts. The Reds are not nearly as strong away from home, so even though they have solid career numbers against Lynn, I am still willing to ride his long wave of success this summer.
Taijuan Walker has a 2.88 ERA over his last ten starts, and the Rockies are not nearly as potent away from Coors Field. Add in the fact that he is facing Jon Gray, who is awful away from home, and you have a recipe for another strong game from Walker with an excellent chance at a win.
Robert Stephenson has not allowed more than two runs in a game since July. He is still a little wild, but he has nice strikeout numbers, the kind that you usually wont get at this price. The Cardinal offense isn’t a huge threat right now. Stephenson’s recent run may keep going.
Bargain Pitchers:
Eduardo Rodriguez has been about as inconsistent as you can find this year. However, Oakland is hitting just .162 against him in 37 at bats with one homer and three runs to go with eight strikeouts. There is upside here, but Rodriguez has a 5.21 ERA over his last ten games.
Dillon Peters dominated the Phillies in Miami in his major league debut. However, there are a couple of reasons to be cautious here. First, it is his first road start. Second, Citizen’s Bank Park is a true hitter’s park. Now the good news: the Phillies are in the bottom five of the league against left handed pitchers.
Joe Biagini racked up ten strikeouts in his last start against the Orioles. He has allowed only three runs in 17 innings to Baltimore this season. There is upside here, but his chances at a win against Dylan Bundy aren’t very good.
Brent Suter‘s stats against the Pirates are pretty average, but Suter does provide upside that you usually don’t find in this tier. He was awful in August after a brilliant July. Which Suter shows up?
How dumb brave are you? Matt Boyd has held the Indians to a .228 average with just one homer and five runs in 79 at bats. That said, Cleveland may not lose again. They forgot what it’s like to lose. It would take stones the size of the Carnac Stones to run Boyd out there against the white-hot Indians.
Top Tier:
I don’t know about you, but I don’t trust Matt Boyd. That means Carlos Santana and Edwin Encarnacion are in play against the lefty, as are the plethora of right handed outfielders.
Despite not having the platoon advantage, Freddie Freeman has managed to hit Gio Gonzalez. Freeman is 12-39(.308) with two walks, five doubles, two homers, and 13 RBI against Gonzalez. Kurt Suzuki is 5-8 with a walk, two doubles, a homer, two runs scored, and two RBI against Gio already. Adonis Garcia is 6-10 with a double, three runs scored, and a RBI. There is value to be had here even if you don’t pay up for Freeman.
Rhys Hoskins is actually worse against left handed pitching average wise, but he has clubbed six homers in just 24 at bats! He may be worth paying up for at home against a fellow rookie lefty.
Gary Sanchez has both of the current Yankee homers against Ian Snell and two of the three RBI. That’s all you need to know.
Telling to to play Joey Votto would be like me telling to you breathe. It just so instinctive, you don’t need anyone to tell you do to it. I am just here to tell you that he is worth is today. Votto is 13-28(.464) with nine walks, two doubles, six runs scored, and a solo homer off of Lance Lynn in his career.
Anthony Rizzo and Kris Bryant are both on my radar against Robert Gsellman. He has been unable to capture the magic from last season. It’s not going to happen in his first career start against the Cubs either. Any Cub, especially left handed ones, are worth using tonight.
Travis Shaw is 3-12 with two solo homers so far against Gerrit Cole. If Cole is going to struggle at Miller Park again, Shaw will likely be most of the reason why.
I’m all over Jake Lamb against Jon Gray in Phoenix. Lamb is 4-11 with a walk, two doubles, three runs scored, and a RBI off of Gray. As for Goldy, I think I will pass. Goldy is 0-8 in his career against Jon Gray.
Middle Tier:
Hanley Ramirez is 3-4 with two homers and three RBI in his career against Sean Manaea. All Red Sox righties dare in play. Maybe the lefties are too. Manaea has struggled against almost everyone this year.
Mark Reynolds is 4-10 with two walks, a double, three runs scored, and two solo homers in his career against Taijuan Walker. Chase Field is still a hitter’s park, so Reynolds may be worth a look.
Justin Turner is 11-29(.379) with a walk, three doubles, a homer, eight runs scored, and two RBI in his career against Johnny Cueto. Cody Bellinger and Yasmani Grandal may be worth looks against the struggling Cueto as well.
Lefty on the mound means Mike Napoli is a go. Batter up!
Bargain Shoppers:
It isn’t just lefties that hit Julio Teheran hard. Jose Lobaton is 7-21 with three walks, a double, two homers, five runs scored, and five RBI in his career against Teheran. That is far better than lefty Adam Lind. If Lobaton gets the nod, I’m using him.
Evan Longoria really didn’t pan out last night, but he is one of the few Rays to have any kind of success against Sonny Gray. Longoria is 10-26(.385) with walk, four doubles, a homer, four runs scored, and three RBI off of Gray. Not bad for $3,200!
Miguel Cabrera is criminally cheap today against Corey Kluber. Miggy is 23-53(.434) with four walks, three doubles, six homers, a steal, 12 runs scored, and 12 RBI in his career against Kluber. I’m saving some cash and playing Miggy today!
Matt Carpenter is another borderline star that has hit a rough patch. The good news is that has dropped his DraftKings price into the bargain bin. Carpenter hit a solo homer and walked in his only career game against Robert Stephenson.
Albert Pujols and Luis Valbuena may be worth playing at discounted prices tonight. I alluded to Verlander’s propensity to giving up homers. Pujols is 7-21 with four walks, three doubles, a homer, six runs scored, and a pair of RBI in his career against Verlander. Valbuena is just 3-25, but he has a homer and five RBI against Verlander.
The Astros don’t have great career numbers against Garrett Richards, but this offense is loaded with talent. Brian McCann has the only homer for the Astros against Richards. It is his only hit in four tries against him.
Buster Posey is one Giant that has (sort of) figured out Kershaw. Posey is 24-98(.245) with four walks, three doubles, three homers, five runs scored, and ten RBI in his career against Verlander. That is about as good of career numbers as you will see against Kershaw, and it’s available in the bargain tier.
Matt Chapman is worth a look against a left handed pitcher. The A’s are a cheap stack if you trust Eduardo Rodriguez’s current struggles more than his past domination of the A’s.
Top Tier:
Daniel Murphy is 9-28(.321)with seven walks, five doubles, a homer, four runs scored, and six RBI in his career against Julio Teheran. He is hard to afford with so many expensive pitchers, but I am going to squeeze him in somewhere. I also like Trea Turner, who is 4-6 against Teheran already with three singles, a double, and two runs.
The Twins don’t punish lefties like they used to, but there are enough in the lineup that can. They knocked around Ian Snell last week, who had been on quite a roll. Brian Dozier is always in play against a lefty. Eduardo Escobar and Jorge Polanco are worth a look as well if you have money to spend in the middle. Many people wont.
Jose Altuve is 9-28(.321) with three walks, a dboule, five runs scored, a steal, and two RBI in his carer against Garrett Richards. Altuve is one of the safest plays day in and day out. Tonight is no different.
Middle Tier:
The slumping Neil Walker is probably a tad too cheap today. Walker is 4-8 with a walk, a triple, a homer, three runs scored, and three RBI in his career against former teammate Gerrit Cole. He could be a nice value play tonight.
The Dodgers are struggling, so that puts Corey Seager and Chris Taylor in this tier right now. That’s good for us! Seager is 10-25 with a walk, a double, a homer, four runs scored, and two RBI in his career against Johnny Cueto. Taylor doesn’t have much for career numbers, but at $3,500 and the year he has had, that is too good to ignore. Especialy if the rest of the offense gets going.
Bargain Shoppers:
Brandon Drury is much better at home and much better against right handed pitching. He faces a righty with his own weird split tonight in Jon Gray. II’m betting Drury has a better night.
Dansby Swanson is 3-10 with two walks, a double, two homers, three runs scored, and three RBI in his career against Gio Gonzalez. Ozzie Albies may also be worth a punt considering how well his teammates have done against Gio.
We are always looking for cheap plays in the middle, right? Enter Chad Pinder, who is 2-6 with a double, a homer, and two RBI in his career against Eduardo Rodriguez. He will cost you just $2,800 tonight.
Next: Top Outfield Plays
Top Tier:
It is probably in your best interest to invest in the Marlins outfield. All of it. The trio of Stanton, Yelich, and Ozuna is 6-19 with four homers and eight RBI against Nick Pivetta. The rest of the team combined is 9-29 with no counting stats.
Mookie Betts is 2-5 with a solo homer and two runs scored so far against Sean Manaea. If you are looking to go cheaper, Chris Young is always an option against lefties. He is perfect against Manaea so far with three singles, a double, two runs scored, and a RBI.
Miguel Gonzalez has been decent against Seattle, but Nelson Cruz has a homer and four RBI against him in only 14 at bats. Jarrod Dyson is an impressive 10-15 with three steals and three runs scored against Gonzalez, even though all the hits are singles.
Mike Trout has homered twice off of Justin Verlander. The bad news is that those are Trout’s only two career hits against Verlander in 16 at bats. Trout likely isn’t worth the premium tonight.
J.D. Martinez had a big game last night, and he likely will again with Jon Gray on the mound. Gray’s bizarre home/road splits are well documented. Martinez has only started one game against Gray. He hit a three run homer off of him. A.J. Pollock is 2-4 with two doubles and a RBI off of Gray so far. David Peralta is also in play here. He is 4-9 with three singles and a triple against Gray.
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Middle Tier:
Ender Inciarte is 10-20 with a walk, a double, and seven runs scored against Gio Gonzalez. He could score a lot of runs again if the Braves blister Gio again. Matt Kemp is even cheaper, and he is 7-21 with four walks, a double, two homers, four runs scored, and six RBI in his career against Gonzalez.
Kevin Kiermaier and Corey Dickerson may be tough sells right now, but they are both cheap and have both homered against Sonny Gray in their careers.
I don’t like Andrew McCutchen and Starling Marte nearly as much at today’s prices as I did last night. They both hit a home run last night, so maybe they have turned a corner. They may still be worth a look against a rookie lefty. They just wont come at as much of a discount.
Curtis Granderson has mashed Johnny Cueto in his career. The Grandy Man is 4-18 with four walks, three homers, a steal, and four RBI in his career against Cueto.
Byron Buxton has cooled off, but I still like him with Travis Wood on the mound. He is also priced in the middle tier finally, so he works better into the budget.
Carlos Gonzalez is still on a tear, and he has history agianst Taijuan Walker. CarGo is 4-11 with three doubles, a homer, and three RBI in his career against Walker. Riding teh hot hand may not be a bad idea here.
If Dexter Fowler is in the lineup for the Cardinals, he deserves considering against Stephenson. Fowler is 2-4 with two walks, four runs scored, and a solo homer off of him.
Bargain Shoppers:
Every Tiger is bargain priced against Kluber. A couple of them may be worth playing. Alex Presley is 6-13(.462) with two walks against Kluber in his career. The bad news is that he has no counting stats.
Scott Schebler has torched Lance Lynn in his career. Schebler is 3-4 with a walk and two solo homers off of Lynn in his career. For $3,300, he would be a steal tonight!
Next: FanDuel MLB Picks and Pivots
Good luck out there, and check out our picks for FanDuel baseball, along with our PGA picks. We also have plenty of NFL stuff to get you ready for football!