Main DraftKings MLB Picks September 13: Scherzer Is The Best Play
By Mike Marteny
Main DraftKings MLB Picks September 13
We still have a large tournament with 12 games tonight. There are a few ace caliber pitchers, but one stands out above the rest. Is he worth using? Can we pick from the middle tier and pay for hitters instead? Let’s check out some stats.
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We will provide you with several options to build your lineup here. Want to spend all your money on pitchers and play bargain bats? We will highlight who is worth the money. Want to punt arms and pay up for the big boppers? We can help you with that as well, and everything in between!
The money line last night was the highest of the season at 145.15 DraftKings points. I put all three lineups in triple digits, but only one cracked that mark.
For you first time players, if you would like a bonus of 25% of your first deposit, use this link for the referral bonus! Then continue reading for tips on how to turn those DraftKings dollars into more!
Next: DraftKings Pitcher Plays
Top Tier:
The Braves are hitting only .225 with seven homers and 17 runs in 222 at bats against Max Scherzer with 62 strikeouts in that span. Those numbers are close enough to elite to warrant paying up for Max since you are guaranteed a win with Luis Gohara taking the mound opposite him. However, if you fade him, it may not hurt as much as you think. The Braves have scored seven runs in 19.2 innings against Scherzer this season with only 23 strikeouts.
Ervin Santana is about the only suitable pivot point to Scherzer in this tier. The Padres are hitting just .178 against Santana in 45 at bats with a homer, three runs, and ten strikeouts. Kyle Gibson dazzled against the Padres last night. It could be Santana’s turn tonight. However, Santana has not pitched very well at home this year (4.14 ERA).
Yu Darvish has not history against the Giants, but this may be what he needs to right the ship in L.A. Darvish has an ugly 5.34 ERA in six starts since heading west, but the Giants have one of the worst offenses in the majors. If he is every going to get going with the Dodgers, it will likely be here.
Jon Lester‘s price is inflated because he is playing the Mets, but none of his numbers look very good this year. Especially his 4.60 ERA in 16 starts at Wrigley. Somehow this watered down version of the Mets is hitting .271 off of him with three homers and 12 runs in 107 at bats. I’m not saying don’t use him against the Mets, but I would certainly consider the facts first. He isn’t an automatic play tonight.
Aaron Nola finds himself on the low end of this tier, and maybe he shouldn’t even be there. He has a 7.33 ERA over his last four starts, and the Marlins are hitting .284 off of him with five homers and 21 runs in just 102 at bats. He will be a tempting contrarian play, but don’t give in. The chances are far great for a disaster than a gem here in hitter-friendly Citizens Bank Park.
Middle Tier:
Don’t look now, but Doug Fister seems to be a solid major league starter right now. Fister has a 3.04 ERA in his last ten starts, and has been nearly unhittable in his last four, allowing just five runs combined and going seven or more innings in all of them. On top of that, Oakland is hitting just .189 against him in 74 at bats with one homer and only five runs. Fister wont wow you with strikeouts, but he holds his own. With the way he is pitching right now, and against a team like the A’s, Fister is a very strong play here.
Dinelson Lamet has a 2.55 ERA in his last nine starts. A trip to Target Field wont be easy, but anyone who is pitching this well is at least worth a longer look. The Twins destroyed Travis Wood last night. Did they save anything for tonight?
Lance McCullers Jr. has struggled lately, but he has good career numbers against the Angels. The current Angels are hitting just .208 off of him in 106 at bats wtit only two homers and four runs. When you can hold Mike Trout to 1-15, you are doing something right. I wouldn’t worry whole lot about his recent struggles. He should get back on track here.
Marcus Stroman has not given up a run to the Orioles in two starts this year. However, he did leave his last start against them after just 1.2 innings with an arm issue. That issue seems to be behind him now. Stroman has been even better at home this year, with a 2.77 ERA at Skydome. On top of that, he is a lot cheaper than the enigmatic Kevin Gausman. Stroman looks like a strong play here.
Bargain Pitchers:
Matt Moore is worth a look against the struggling Dodgers. Not only does Yu Darvish not look elite right now, but Moore has a solid history against the hated Dodgers. They are hitting just .182 against Moore in 143 at bats with five homers and 17 runs. You didn’t expect elite numbers from a guy in this tier, did you? Good. What Moore does give you though is a puncher’s chance at a win and a quality start with a half dozen strikeouts or so. Even lefty whisperer Kike Hernandez hasn’t touched Moore. Hernandez is just 1-17 off of Moore!
Tyler Skaggs has actually pitched well against the Astros so far in his career. They are only hitting .233 off of him in 60 at bats with one homer and five runs. Playing in a pitcher’s park can only help the cause of Skaggs even more. That said, you have to be pretty brave to use a non-ace against the Astros.
In order to do this you need to ignore what happened early this season, which can be a problem for some DFS players. Tyler Glasnow had a miserable 7.45 ERA early this year. He proceeded to go down to AAA Indianapolis and tweak some things. Glasnow dominated the International League with a 1.93 ERA in 15 starts. Can his newfound success transfer back to the major leagues? We will find out against the Brewers. It wont cost much for us DFS players to find out, especially since the strikeout-prone Brewers provide a nice floor in this matchup.
I would trust Tyler Mahle a little more than Jack Flaherty if you are looking to start one of the rookies against the other.
Top Tier:
Luiz Gohara was smacked around in his major league debut. Now he gets a Nationals team that can still do some damage even without Harper, especially against a lefty. Both Anthony Rendon and Ryan Zimmerman hold the platoon advantage here. Gohara promises to be in for another short outing.
Paul Goldschmidt is 4-8 with four walks, two homers, and four RBI in his career against German Marquez already. Play Goldy tonight! Jake Lamb isn’t a horrible idea either.
Anthony Rizzo is 2-6 with a walk, a double, and a solo homer off of Matt Harvey. Stacking Cubs under the lights at Wrigley looks like a good idea against Harvey and the putrid bullpen behind him.
Rhys Hoskins homered twice last night, and should hit at least one more tonight. Hoskins is 4-6 with a double, two homers, three runs scored, and four RBI already in his career against Dan Straily. Tommy Joseph is 4-11 off of Straily with a homer and two RBI if you don’t want to pay up for Hoskins or plan on using him in the outfield. Maikel Franco is 5-12 with a walk, a run scored, and a RBI against Straily.
Middle Tier:
Jharel Cotton has served up 12 homers in his last six starts, so a Boston stack may be in order tonight. Rafael Devers and Mitch Moreland are both reasonably priced and carry the platoon advantage at Fenway in this one.
This could be a really good day to stack Mariners. Kyle Seager is 16-38(.421) with three walks, a double, four homers, eight runs scored, and seven RBI against Martin Perez in his career. Danny Valencia is 7-22(.318) with three walks, a double, a homer, six runs scored, and five RBI against Perez.
Nearly all of the damage done to Scherzer has come from this area for the Braves. Freddie Freeman in particular could be a strong play. Freeman is 4-15 with four walks, a double, two solo homers, and three runs scored. Rio Ruiz is cheap, and hit a two run homer against Scherzer in his only start against him. Kurt Suzuki is 5-15 with two walks and a solo homer against Scherzer. I don’t know that I would use all three since the odds are still pretty good that they get nothing at all, but any of them are suitable cheaper one-off plays.
Matt Olson is hitting .308 with six homers and 11 RBI in his last ten games. Fenway Park is still a hitter’s park, and Fister will still give up a run or two. I will take the action that is it Olson that causes them.
If you have ever considered stacking Pirates, tonight is the night. Matt Garza is on the mound, and the Pirates have hit him well. Josh Bell is 4-10 with two walks, a double, two runs scored, and two RBI against Garza.
Wilmer Flores clobbers lefties, and Jon Lester is no exception. Flores has all three homers for the current Mets against Lester with four RBI in just 13 at bats.
Bargain Shoppers:
Stephen Vogt and Bruce Maxwell both hold the platoon advantage against starters with upside, but somewhat sketchy histories. They are worth a look depending on where they land in the batting order.
Top Tier:
Trea Turner is a must play batting leadoff against Luiz Gohara. Washington has the highest projected run total of the night, and I definitely want one of the cornerstones of this offense. Daniel Murphy is a solid play as well since the Braves will have to go to the bullpen early.
Middle Tier:
Ian Happ hit a solo homer against Matt Harvey in his only game against him, and that was before Harvey’s season took a wrong turn.
Corey Seager is 5-18(.278) with three walks, a double, three runs scored, and two solo homers against Matt Moore. So much for platoon advantage…..
Patrick Corbin has been thumped by the Rockies, but they are still mostly awful away from home. My response is to play one or two Rockies that have a solid career going against Corbin. One of those is DJ LeMahieu. LeMahieu is 13-34(.382) with three walks, three triples, two homers, seven runs scored, and five RBI against Corbin. He is one of the better 2B options of the night.
Dee Gordon is a solid mid-range option tonight. Gordon is 4-11 with a walk, a double, a triple, two steals, and three runs scored off of Aaron Nola. Miguel Rojas is cheap, and is 2-5 with a walk, two runs scored, and two RBI against Nola already.
Neil Walker is mired in a bit of a slump right now, but he is 2-4 with a walk,a homer, and two RBI in his career against Tyler Glasnow.
Bargain Shoppers:
Ketel Marte has been outstanding for Arizona since his summons from the minors. He is 2-5 with a solo homer off of Marquez, and comes at a nice cheap price.
Adam Frazier is 5-9 with a double, two runs scored, and three RBI in his career against Matt Garza. Jordy Mercer is 5-20 with a walk, a homer, a steal, three runs scored, and five RBI.
Next: Top Outfield Plays
Top Tier:
Gee, what is Giancarlo doing here? Stanton is 4-9 with a double, two homers, and three RBI already against Aaron Nola. Marcell Ozuna and Christian Yelich have hit Nola even harder, and come at a discount to Stanton. Ozuna is 6-16 with two homers and six RBI off of Nola. Yelich is 5-13 with a double, a triple, a steal, four runs scored, and two RBI against Nola.
While it is mostly left handed Red Sox hitters I’m after, Mookie Betts remains a strong play. He homered twice last night and now gets a struggling pitcher that has allowed six homers in his last two starts. Andrew Benintendi is a strong play as well.
I usually wont use Charlie Blackmon away from Coors, but I will make an exception here. Blackmon is 9-26(.346) with a walk, two doubles, a triple, a homer, six runs scored, and three RBI in his career against Patrick Corbin.
Nelson Cruz is 7-17(.412) with three walks, a double, three homers, seven runs scored, and five RBI i his career against Martin Perez. If Guillermo Heredia starts, he is a great punt play. Heredia is 6-14(.429) with a walk, two doubles, two runs scored, and a RBI off of Perez.
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Middle Tier:
The Rangers as a whole have hit Mike Leake well, but it is the outfielders that have done almost all of the damage. Nomar Mazara hit a two run homer against Leake in his only start against him. Shin-Soo Choo is 5-11 with a walk, a double, and two solo homers against Leake. Carlos Gomez is 7-18(.389) with two walks, a double, a triple, two steals, a run scored, and three RBI against Leake.
Michael Taylor has a nice combination of power and speed that will play well against Atlanta tonight. Howie Kendrick continues to occupy a strong spot in the lineup, and both carry the platoon advantage against Luiz Gohara.
You know Max Kepler is in play every time a right hander is on the mound. Byron Buxton isn’t as hot as he was, but he is still producing.
Andrew McCutchen is only 7-29(.241) with five walks, a double, two homers, a steal, seven runs scored, and five RBI in his career against Matt Garza. Gregory Polanco comes as a great bargain, and is 5-18 with two walks, a homer, five runs scored, and two RBI against Garza.
Kyle Schwarber and Jason Heyward both have homers against Harvey, and Jon Jay is a cheap leadoff option for a team that could score a lot of runs if you find yourself needing to pinch pennies in he outfield.
This looks like a great spot to use Jake Marisnick. He is perfect against Tyler Skaggs with a single, a double, a homer, two runs scored, and two RBI in his career against Skaggs.
Bargain Shoppers:
Nick Williams continues to be a favorite bargain play of mine. He is 2-7 with two walks, a double, a triple, three runs scored, and a RBI already against Straily. He will also only cost you $3,100!
Juan Lagares is batting third at a very low price for the Mets. He is 3-12 with two doubles, two steals, and two runs scored in his career against Lester, and we all know how the Cubs struggle to prevent teams from running wild on them.
Jose Pirela hit a two run homers in his only game against Ervin Santana in his career. It doesn’t hurt that he is very cheap as well.
Kevin Gausman is hard to trust this year, but he has only given up five runs in 28.2 innings to the Blue Jays this year. However, there is great value in this tier if nowhere else for Toronto. Kevin Pillar is 10-22(.455) with two walks, a double, three runs scored, and a RBI. Ezequiel Carrera is 6-18 with two walks, a double, a homer, a steal, four runs scored, and two RBI. If Michael Saunders finds himself starting, he is a great play as well. Saunders is 2-8 with a solo homer and two runs scored.
Next: FanDuel MLB Picks and Pivots
Good luck out there, and check out our picks for FanDuel baseball, along with our PGA picks. We also have plenty of NFL stuff to get you ready for football!