DraftKings MLB Picks September 15: You Get What You Pay For With Sale
By Mike Marteny
DraftKings MLB Picks September 15
We are back up to 14 games for our Friday with only the Cardinals-Cubs matinee tilt missing out on the main DraftKings tournament. We have three sure aces and one playing for a team that may never lose again in the upper tier. Which one of those should we use to anchor our lineup? Is there ample value in the middle to fade all four? Let’s check it out!
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We will provide you with several options to build your lineup here. Want to spend all your money on pitchers and play bargain bats? We will highlight who is worth the money. Want to punt arms and pay up for the big boppers? We can help you with that as well, and everything in between!
For you first time players, if you would like a bonus of 50% of your first deposit, use this link for the referral bonus! Then continue reading for tips on how to turn those DraftKings dollars into more!
Next: DraftKings Pitcher Plays
Top Tier:
It should come as no surprise to anyone that Chris Sale has dominated the Rays. They are hitting only .220 off of Sale in 205 at bats with five homers and just 13 runs to go with 77 strikeouts. You should have no issue getting what you pay for with Sale. He is 4-1 with a 2.06 ERA in six starts against the Rays this season.
Robbie Ray has the worst numbers of the elite tier, but they are still pretty good. The Giants are hitting a solid .254 against Ray, but they have just one home and six runs in 71 at bats with a whopping 21 strikeouts. Ray also boasts at 1.53 ERA in three career starts at AT&T Park. Oh, and he has been lights out on the road this year. Ray is 7-1 with a 1.34 ERA in 12 road starts. There. Now he looks like a suitable alternative to Sale.
Luis Severino has dominated the Orioles in his time in the majors. They are hitting just .207 off of him in 121 at bats with six homers and 11 runs. The six homers means that there are a couple of Orioles that might be worth a dart throw, but as a whole, this team isn’t going to get a lot off of Severino. The 35 strikeouts is near an elite ratio as well. The price says that Severino in on the lower tier of aces, but he should perform up there with the other two.
Trevor Bauer is riding a five game winning streak, but he has been far from infallible during that span. However, his 2.23 ERA over the last ten games speaks volumes about his improvement this season. He has not given up a run in two starts against Kansas City this year, but he has only pitched eight innings in those games. There is a pretty solid chance that Bauer has a solid game. However, he lacks the elite upside that the three in front of him have.
Middle Tier:
Chad Kuhl was solid against the Reds the first time around this year. He has a sparkling 2.84 ERA over his last ten starts, and hasn’t given up more than three runs in a game in over a month. There is a lot to like about Kuhl at a very reasonable price.
It seems preposterous to me that Zach Davies is still priced in this range. What more does the guy have to do? Davies has a stellar 1.89 ERA in his last ten starts. He leads the National League with 17 wins. Oh, and he has a 2.04 ERA in 16 road starts this year. He lacks the strikeout upside of the elite pitchers tonight, but he is a great SP2 play for this price!
His counterpart Jose Urena looks like a strong play as well. His numbers pale in comparison do Davies, but most do. That said, Urena has a 3.12 ERA in his last ten starts and a 3.17 home ERA this year. Like Davies, he lacks strikeout upside, but Urena could come with lower ownership.
Rafael Montero has won three straight games, but he still isn’t going deep into games. His only action against the Braves this year game in relief. He gave up two runs in 1.2 innings. The silver lining here is that Montero has only allowed ten homers in 101.2 innings pitched this season. That could help take the sting out of a SunTrust Park start.
Bargain Pitchers:
Understandably, Sean Newcomb has been better on the road than at home. That said, he gets a pretty weak Mets offense at SunTrust and will hold the platoon advantage. He is worth a look for his price range.
Believe it or not, Bartolo Colon has good numbers against the Jays. They are hitting just .229 in 153 at bats with four homers and 14 runs, but only 27 strikeouts. That said, this is the low tier. What do you really expect? Colon could come up with a quality start and a win, but don’t expect much else.
I usually stay far away from Tyler Chatwood at home, but this could be an exception. The Padres are only hitting .224 against Chatwood if you can stomach the eight runs he has given up. Chatwood has given up just two runs in his last eight appearances spanning 18 innings. There is potential here, but a whole lot of risk. However, he gives you a dirt cheap pitcher with microscopic ownership.
James Paxton is priced very low for his talent level, but he has not pitched in over a month, and has to make his return against the Astros. Paxton likely will not go very deep into the game, but for you bargain hunters, the Astros are only hitting .233 against Paxton in 163 at bats wtih just two homers and 12 runs to go with 36 strikeouts. Moreover, Paxton has held Houston to just one run in 20 innings pitched this season. There is a lot of potential here if you don’t mind the risk.
If you are slumming at pitcher, Mark Leiter Jr. looks like a solid play against an Oakland team that wont have their DH. Of course, this is still a hitter’s park, and Oakland has solid left handed power lurking, so there is the potential for a bad start. However, Leiter has been racking up enough strikeouts lately to salvage his last four starts except for the absolute disaster at Citi Field.
Carson Fulmer dominated the Giants in his last start, so the White Sox elected to leave him in the rotation. Now he draws the Tigers, who aren’t much stronger than the Giants offensively. This is also in the pitcher-friendly confines of Comerica Park. There is a lot to like about Fulmer tonight, but he does have a 6 ERA, and it was nearly 6 at AAA this year.
Top Tier:
Manny Machado is one of the few that has figured out Luis Severino (sort of). Machado is 4-14(.286) with a walk, a double, three homers, and five RBI off of the Yankee ace. If you are looking to save some change, Trey Mancini is 4-6 with a RBI against Severino so far.
Every right handed Rockie, even retired ones, are in play tonight against Clayton Richard. Richard sports a 9.21 ERA in eight career starts at Coors Field. Nolan Arenado tops any list tonight. He is 7-12(.583) with a double, a triple, a homer, three runs scored, and five RBI in his career against Richard. Jonathan Lucroy is 6-13(.462) with two doubles, a homer, a steal, two runs scored, and six RBI off Richard. Ian Desmond is still eligible at first base, and he is 6-20 with two homers and four RBI off of Richard.
Rhys Hoskins. You’re welcome.
Jose Abreu is 12-21(.571) with two walks, three doubles, two homers, six runs scored, and nine RBI in his career against Anibal Sanchez. It’s hard to justify fading him for anyone. Matt Davidson busted out of his slump against the Tigers yesterday. He also hit a three run homer in his only start against Anibal Sanchez.
Justin Smoak is 3-8 with three walks, two homers, four runs scored, and three RBI in his career against Bartolo Colon. If you are going cheap at catcher, Miguel Montero is 2-7 with a pair of walks.
Jake Lamb is 6-13(.462) with five walks, two doubles, a triple, a homer, three runs scored, and six RBI in his career against Jeff Samardzija.
Only one more streak is longer than Cleveland’s current streak. It happened 101 years ago. They will take one step closer with lefty Jason Vargas on the mound. Edwin Encarnacion is 8-32 with nine walks, two doubles, two homers, five runs scored, two steals, and five RBI off of Vargas. He really has done it all against him. Yan Gomes is 7-20 with three walks, a double, a homer, two runs scored, and three RBI against Vargas. Start him if he plays.
There is precisely a 0% chance that I’m starting Alex Wood against the Nationals. They have hit an astonishing .411 off of him in 73 at bats. Anthony Rendon is a blistering 12-17(.706) with a walk, a homer, three runs scored, and two RBI off of Wood. He even has a steal!
Middle Tier:
Matt Olson is always a strong option with a right handed pitcher on the mound. Mark Leiter Jr. is far from a sure thing. If the Mets can beat him up, just about anyone can.
Wilmer Flores picked up two hits and a run in his three at bats against Sean Newcomb earlier this year. Flores continues to torch left handed pitching, and is a great play at SunTrust Park.
Eric Hosmer is a solid play without the big price tag. Hosmer is 5-18(.278) with two walks, a homer, two runs scored, and three RBI in his career against Trevor Bauer. Even during Bauer’s five start winning streak, he has not been particularly dominant. There are a couple of bargain chances in the Royals lineup.
It doesn’t really matter who the Angels throw out there in their bullpen start. If he is right handed, use Joey Gallo and Rougned Odor. If he is left handed, use Mike Napoli and Shin-Soo Choo.
Wil Myers is 7-19(.368) with two walks, three doubles, two homers, four runs scored, and five RBI in his career against Tyler Chatwood. It’s Coors Field, so Chatwood is far from a sure thing, and Myers has the history.
Bargain Shoppers:
Yasmani Grandal is 2-4 with a triple, a homer, two runs scored, and two RBI in his career against Edwin Jackson. In fact, the Dodgers are hitting .354 in 79 career at bats against Jackson, so Cody Bellinger is worth a look if you are paying for hitters.
Miggy went deep yesterday, and he is still priced at just $3,300 against rookie Carson Fulmer. He is worth taking another chance on tonight.
C.J. Cron is 6-15 with two walks,a double, and two solo homer so far against Nick Martinez. He is a great way to save money if you are going to punt first base.
Chris Sale hasn’t dominated every Rays hitter. Wilson Ramos is dirt cheap, and he is 3-8 with a double, a homer, and three RBI off of Sale in his career. Even Logan Morrison – yes, he still bats left handed – is 5-15 with two walks and a solo homer against Sale.
David Freese is 6-23(.261) with two walks, a double, two homers, three runs scored, and three RBI in his career against Homer Bailey. Bailey has been much better lately after a dreadful start to the season after he came off the DL, but Freese is a cheap enough dart to throw at him.
So….uh….the Yankees are 0-6 lifetime against Gabriel Ynoa, so there’s that. Past that though, who knows what we have. I will use Greg Bird at a bargain price to find out!
Top Tier:
We don’t have to look far for another National that has hit Wood hard. Daniel Murphy is 5-11 with three runs scored and a steal against Alex Wood.
Brian Dozier hits all lefties well, but he really seems to like J.A. Happ. Dozier is 4-12 with two walks, two homers, four runs scored, a steal, and three RBI in his career against Happ. Jorge Polanco is 3-5 with three RBI and a steal against Happ.
Middle Tier:
I like Didi Gregorius with the platoon advantage against Ynoa. Also, Starlin Castro isn’t really a bad fit anywhere at $3,200. He is still hitting .261 with two homers and seven RBI in his last ten games.
Trevor Story is 3-6 with a triple, a homer, three runs scored, and three RBI off of Clayton Richard. Story’s season long numbers aren’t great, but he could provide some pop at low ownership tonight.
Dustin Pedroia is 5-9 with four walks, a homer, two steals, four runs scored, and three RBI in his career against Matt Andreise. Andreise was rolling before landing on the DL, but he was thumped by the Red Sox in his last outing. It could happen again.
Bargain Shoppers:
Chase Utley is 7-14 with a walk, a double, a triple, a homer, three runs scored, and four RBI against Edwin Jackson. If Utley is in there, he is a great punt option.
Ketel Marte continues to be low priced or what he has done. Marte is 2-5 with a walk and a run scored off of Samardzija, and he is going to be in a good spot in a lineup that could score quite a few runs tonight.
Next: Top Outfield Plays
Top Tier:
Pay up for Mookie! Betts is 7-16(.438) with three walks, a double, a homer, three steals, five runs scored, and three RBI in his career against Matt Andriese.
Byron Buxton hit the walkoff last night. Now he gets a meeting with J.A. Happ tonight. Buxton picked up two singles, a run, a RBI, and a steal in his only other start against him. I’m liking Buxton again tonight.
J.D. Martinez is putting up huge numbers in the desert. He is only 5-25 in his career against Jeff Samardzija, but he has more RBI (six) than hits (five) against him. If Martinez puts the ball in play, its going a long way.
Charlie Blackmon doesn’t own the platoon advantage, but he is 4-9 with three runs scored against Richard. And, well, Richard likely wont last five innings anyway, so Blackmon will have at least two at bats against the bullpen.
Mike Trout is 5-17(.294) with three walks, a double, tow homers, three runs scored, and five RBI in his career against Nick Martinez. Kole Calhoun is a great way to save some money. He is 9-17(.529) with a walk, two doubles, a homer four runs scored, and three RBI in his career against Martinez.
George Springer comes at a solid discount against James Paxton, but is only 4-20 off of him. The good news is that Springer has both homers allowed by Paxton to the Astros.
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Middle Tier:
The Yankee outfield is chock full of lefties. I like Brett Gardner leading off, and we all know what Aaron Judge does to right handed pitching at home if you find yourself with some extra cash to use.
Michael Taylor is 4-9 with a double, a steal, a run scored, and a RBI off of Alex Wood. Howie Kendrick is the only current National that is hitting below .250 off of Wood, so maybe we should pass on him.
Lorenzo Cain is 6-18 with two walks, two doubles, a triple, a homer, three runs scored, and two RBI in his career against Trevor Bauer. Melky Cabrera has two homers against Bauer, but is just 5-28 off of him lifetime.
Avisail Garcia was an absolute monster yesterday with seven RBI. What will he do for an encore? I don’t know, but it could be pretty good against Anibal Sanchez.
Starling Marte and Andrew McCutchen are good plays for their prices. Marte is 6-22(.273) with three doubles, a triple, a homer, three steals, five runs scored, and four RBI in his career against Homer Bailey. McCutchen is 15-48(.312) with 11 walks, two doubles a triple, four steals, seven runs scored, and three RBI against Homer.
Jose Bautista is 6-21(.286) with five walks, a double, a homer, three runs scored, and five RBI in his career against Bartolo Colon. Kevin Pillar is a little cheaper and is 5-8 with a steal, a run, and a RBI.
Bargain Shoppers:
Curtis Granderson looks too cheap against Edwin Jackson. Granderson is 5-16(.312) with five walks, a double, a triple, a homer, a steal, five runs scored, and three RBI off of Jackson in his career.
Ben Gamel‘s only hit in three tries against Charlie Morton is a two run homer. And he costs just $3,400.
Kevin Kiermaier‘s price is depressed because he is facing Sale, but Kiermaier is 4-11 with a walk, a homer, and three RBI against Sale in his career.
I’m all over Nick Williams and Odubel Herrera with righty Daniel Mengden on the mound in Citizens Bank Park. They are both too cheap to ignore.
Mark Trumbo is 4-12 with three walks, a double, two homers, and three RBI against Luis Severino. He can’t hit anyone else, but he sure does pretty well against Severino.
Next: FanDuel MLB Picks and Pivots
Good luck out there, and check out our picks for FanDuel baseball, along with our PGA picks. We also have plenty of NFL stuff to get you ready for football!