DraftKings Main MLB Picks September 21: Should You Play CarMart On His Birthday?
By Mike Marteny
DraftKings Main MLB Picks September 21
We have nine games in the main tournament tonight with several good options taking the mound. If we want to pay up, we have to find bargains somewhere. I will highlight those areas in what could be a stronger middle tier than we think.
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We will provide you with several options to build your lineup here. Want to spend all your money on pitchers and play bargain bats? We will highlight who is worth the money. Want to punt arms and pay up for the big boppers? We can help you with that as well, and everything in between!
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Next: DraftKings Pitcher Plays
Top Tier:
Dallas Keuchel is a big no for me tonight. The White Sox continue to hit lefties hard, just as they did Keucherl earlier this year. The Sox have a .391 average and a staggering 14 runs in just 46 at bats. There is virtually no chance that Keuchel gets anywhere close to value tonight.
Carlos Martinez will celebrate his 26th birthday on a mound in Cincinnati. On the surface, this doesn’t look like a very good matchup. The Reds are hitting .272 off of Martinez in 125 at bats with five homers and 16 runs. Surprisingly, most of that damage has been done at Busch Stadium. Martinez has a 2.93 career ERA in 30.2 innings at Great American Ballpark. And, well, it is his birthday. We know what that means!
Middle Tier:
Jake Arrieta will be kept on a pitch limit tonight, which likely means he gets about five innings. The Brewers are only hitting .222 off of Arrieta in 126 at bats with 32 strikeouts. A couple of Brewers have hit Arrieta hard, but he has increased strikeout potential while he is in there.
Arrieta’s opponent is not on a pitch count, and has a nice 2.86 ERA over his last ten starts. Oh, and he leads the National League in wins. So why is Zach Davies so cheap? Because despite his great success since the break, Davis still has an ugly 5.67 ERA in 14 home starts and lackluster career numbers against the Cubs.
Like Arrieta, James Paxton posts a big risk tonight because he is likely still on a pitch count. Paxton was rusty in his first start back, and while he gets a decent opponent on his home field, there is still quite a bit of risk here. However, at just $7,400, there is potential for Paxton to have a huge night for his price. Remember, he was often over five digits before his injury.
Tyler Anderson‘s season numbers are not great, but his career numbers against the Padres are. The current Padres are an awful 2-24(.083) with five strikeouts and no runs off of Anderson. Now, the Padres do have some right handed power in this lineup, but they have been mostly dormant in September. Anderson has the potential for a huge night at a very reasonable price.
Bargain Pitchers:
Jason Vargas has been average or worse since the All Star Break, but he has good career numbers against Toronto. The Jays are only hitting .211 against Vargas in 123 at bats with 12 runs scored. However, this is one instance where there is value on both sides because the Jays have slugged eight homers off of Vargas. Vargas doesn’t get enough strikeouts to limit damage. For that reason, Ynoa my be a better option.
I don’t trust Carson Fulmer against the Astros, but I also don’t trust the struggling Astros offense enough to pay up for their stack. Fulmer has looked really good in his two starts. Those of you riverboat gambling types may hit paydirt with a scantly owned Fulmer if the Astros continue to scuffle.
Adalberto Mejia is dirt cheap, but he has a 3.86 ERA in his last ten starts. He is also taking on a struggling offense in the Tigers and one of the worst pitchers around in Jordan Zimmerman. There are a lot of things going for Mejia here. He may not go much more than five innings, but Mejia should have a great chance at a win and a handful of strikeouts before his night is over.
Gabriel Ynoa is cheaper than a lot of hitters tonight, but there is some potential here. Ynoa has not been terrible but he hasn’t been all that good either. However, he gets a strikeout-prone Rays team tonight. Ynoa is priced so low that he is all but assured of getting value for this price. You would just need to choose right on the hitters you pay top dollar for to make it worth your while.
Top Tier:
The Cardinals are a bit more expensive to stack than Twins, but Homer Bailey has had every bit as rough a season as Zimmerman has, and this game is in a hitter’s park. Jose Martinez walked, doubled, homered, and drove in four in his only game against Bailey. Matt Carpenter is a ridiculous 17-31(.548) with a walk, three doubles, a steal, five runs scored, and four RBI against Homer. Yadier Molina is an impressive 15-39(.385) with three doubles, three homers, and five RBI against Bailey.
The Rockies offense is usually awful away from Coors, but they might make an exception against Clayton Richard. Both Nolan Arenado and Jonathan Lucroy have clobbered Richard, going a cominbed 15-29 with two homers, a steal, six runs scored, and 11 RBI off of Richard. I don’t really trust any other Rockies, but I do these guys.
Freddie Freeman has never hit a homer against Tanner Roark, but he has done a little of everything else. The Braves are hitting .279 in 147 at bats against Roark. There is no way I trust him at SunTrust Park.
For me, Kris Bryant is the only must-play Cub tonight. Bryant is 9-25).360) with a homer six runs scored, and five RBI off of Zach Davies. There are other good options as well, but Bryant stands out.
The people in the outfield bleachers in SunTrust Park need to be paying attention tonight. The Nationals and Braves have combined for 16 homers against the other starter tonight. Ryan Zimmerman has four of the eight Nats homers against R.A. Dickey. He is worth paying for tonight.
Middle Tier:
Joe Mauer is hitting .375 in September, and Jordan Zimmerman has been even worse against lefties this year. For that reason, Jason Castro is also a solid part of this stack. If I could play eight Twins batters tonight, I would.
Kendrys Morales is only 5-25 in his career against Jason Vargas, but he has homered twice and driven in four. Miguel Montero has a homer and two RBI in his career against Vargas, though the chances of him starting against a fellow lefty are pretty slim.
It isn’t just righties that hit Cole Hamels hard. Kyle Seager is 9-32(.281) with five walks, two homers, four steals, and six RBI off of the fellow lefty. If you are looking to go cheap at first base, Danny Valencia has homered off of Hamels.
Adrian Beltre is 8-14(.571) with four walks, a homer, and six RBI off of James Paxton. Robinson Chirinos also homered off of Paxton in his only game against him.
Bargain Shoppers:
Chris Davis is 4-9 with two homers and four RBI in his career against Matt Andriese, but there are reasons he is this cheap, First off, this has been a trying season for Davis, and he has been even worse in September. On top of that, the Orioles haven’t scored a run in two straight games. I don’t know that I trust anyone in this offense right now.
No matter how many lineups I play, Kevan Smith is my catcher. Smith walked, doubled, homered, and drove in four in his first game against Keuchel. Look for more of the same tonight. Jose Abreu is 5-12 with two homers and three RBI so far against Keuchel.
Top Tier:
Brian Dozier and Eduardo Escobar are targets for me tonight because of Jordan Zimmerman. Even if they didn’t have good numbers against him, I would still consider them. That is how great this matchup is for the Twins.
Daniel Murphy is 4-9 with two solo homers off of R.A. Dickey. I actually prefer Murphy at SunTrust Park, but I’m strongly considering playing both Murphy and Zimmerman tonight. There are plenty of values available to make this possible.
Paul DeJong and Kolten Wong are in play as well against Homer Bailey. They are a combined 7-13 with four runs scored and four RBI against Bailey.
Middle Tier:
Robinson Cano is only 9-38(.237) against Cole Hamels, but he has three home runs off of him. And Cano promises to get at least one crack at that bullpen.
Bargain Shoppers:
Ozzie Albies hit a two run homer the first time he faced Tanner Roark. Can he do it again in lefty friendly SunTrust Park?
There aren’t a lot of Rays that I fully trust, but Adeiny Hechavarria is riding a hot streak and is still very reasonably priced. He is a solid option against an average rookie.
Next: Top Outfield Plays
Top Tier:
I’m stacking Twins tonight, and their outfield is no exception. Byron Buxton needs no explanation, but I like Eddie Rosario, Robbie Grossman, and Max Kepler as well. They are a combined 10-21 with two homers, six runs scored, and eight RBI off of Jordan Zimmerman. The Twins have an outfielder for every level of your budget, and all of them are good plays.
Ryan Braun is only 7-24(.292) against Jake Arrieta, but he has three homers and ten RBI off of him. Ten! However, with Arrieta on a pitch count, Braun will likely only face him twice.
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Middle Tier:
I’m not a big fan of J.A. Happ today. For one, the Royals don’t strike out a lot and seem to be constantly making contact. For another, they are hitting .277 off of Happ in 101 at bats with a staggering 19 runs scored. The Royals outfield has done almost all of that damage. The starting outfield of Cain, Gordon, and Melky Cabrera is a combined 14-31 with three homers, nine runs scored, and 11 RBI against Happ. Any or all look to be nice bargains tonight.
Jose Bautista is 5-18 with seven walks, three homers, and four RBI in his career against Jason Vargas. Kevin Pillar has also taken him deep once in six at bats.
Avisail Garcia gets a nice discount just like the rest of the Sox tonight. Maybe they shouldn’t. Garcia is 6-15 with a homer, a steal, and four RBI in his career against Dallas Keuchel.
Nelson Cruz is 6-24 with a homer and two RBI off of Cole Hamels. Mitch Haniger is even cheaper, and he is 4-5 with two homers and five RBI off of Hamels already.
Bargain Shoppers:
If you can’t afford the Twins outfield, the Braves’ entire outfield is all in play, and they all cost just $3,400 each! The combination of Matt Kemp, Ender Inciarte, and Nick Markakis is a combined 20-79 with six homers, 12 runs scored, and 13 RBI against Tanner Roark. Collect em all!
Jayson Werth is 13-29(.448) with six walks, three doubles, two homes, eight runs scored, and four RBI in his career against R.A. Dickey. Not everyone can hit a knuckler, but Werth has proven he can, and he comes at a very reasonable price.
Next: Early DraftKings MLB Picks
Good luck out there, and check out our picks for FanDuel baseball, along with our PGA picks. We also have plenty of NFL stuff to get you ready for football!