NFL DFS Breakdown: Week 3 Top Picks and Plays

OAKLAND, CA – SEPTEMBER 17: NFL DFS Derek Carr /

NFL DFS Breakdown Week 3

Back after another lack luster week in the NFL DFS, we look ahead to week three. Its been an odd start to the year, with scoring down, terrible offensive line play, and overall surprising results. Nevertheless, there are still edges to be had. After quickly touching on a few injuries that could open up fantasy opportunities, I’ll dive into underpriced value plays, matchups to exploit, and my hot takes for the week.

Key Skill Position Injuries:

Corey Coleman – Beneficiaries: Rashard Higgins

Jordy Nelson/Randall Cobb – Beneficiaries: Davante Adams, Geronimo Allison

Rex Burkhead – Beneficiaries: James White

Top Projected Team Totals Based on Vegas Odds (as of 9/21): Oakland – 29, New England – 28.75, Green Bay – 27.5, Atlanta – 26.75, Carolina – 26, Washington – 26

NFL DFS Underpriced Values:

Isaiah Crowell – CLE (RB) – DK $4800

To grease the wheel or not? That is the question. After handling only 10 carries last week, Isaiah Crowell, came out questioning the play calling, and his role in the offense. This may turn into an unfulfilled narrative, but the Browns will be in one of the best spots that they’ll see all season, as they sit as a 1.5 point favorites against Indianapolis. Crowell is extremely cheap on DraftKings at only $4800, and could benefit from Cleveland possibly playing with a lead.

Jared Cook – OAK (TE) – $3100

This Oakland offense has picked up right where they left off, continuing to dominate teams through air. Since coming over from Green Bay, tight end, Jared Cook, has averaged 5.5 targets in the first two games. Cook may not have two touchdown upside, but at $3100, he is a source of significant salary relief, in an ideal matchup.

Le’Veon Bell – PIT (RB) – FD $8700

After getting off to a slow start, Le’Veon Bell’s price has fallen a full $600. The rust can be expected as he missed all of training camp, but sooner or later, Bell should find his rhythm in the offense. Pittsburgh will be lucky enough to face a, Mike Glennon led, Bears team, where they’re over a touchdown favorite. The bears’ front seven is formidable, but given Bell’s threat in the passing game, he should be able to get his in either phase of the game.

A.J. Green – CIN (WR) – FD $7500

A.J. Green is criminally underpriced this week, as the Bengals head to Lambeau Field. After two pitiful performances, Cincinnati said bye-bye to offensive coordinator Ken Zampese, and hello to new coordinator Bill Lazor. Lazor is known for his up tempo, pass happy offensive style, which should benefit a wide out like Green. Green was another vocal player that came out to voice his displeasure with play calling. Expect Green to see targets early and often. If you’re looking for info on Lazor, check out this article for a more in-depth breakdown!

NFL DFS Matchups to Exploit:

A.J. Green vs. Green Bay Secondary

You’ll probably see the Green Bay secondary listed here every week, and with good reason. While Julio Jones has an average game last week, the Falcons didn’t have to test this secondary much, as they led for most of the game. Matt Ryan only had 28 drop backs, but was fairly effective for the limited number of passing attempts.

As mentioned earlier with A.J. Green, I’d expect him to see a ton of targets, and not one of these defensive backs can handle Green one on one. The only hesitation I would have is that with Tyler Eifert likely out, and John Ross questionable, the Green Bay defense could go all out to stop Green.

Keenan Allen vs. anyone but Marcus Peters

The Chiefs are notorious for using Marcus Peters on one side of the field instead of having him shadow the opposing team’s top wide receiver. This will benefit Keenan Allen, as the Chargers should move him around the field to avoid matchups with Peters. Allen has received 10 targets in each of the last two games, and should be a focal point of the offense, especially if they find themselves trailing.

NFL DFS Hot Takes:

NEW ORLEANS, LA – SEPTEMBER 17: Alex Okafor /

New Orleans wins outright, and the game is held below the posted total of 47

With New Orleans being apart of two of the most watched games of the year so far, the public has seen how woeful this defense is, but may have over inflated their struggles. While they are awful, the Carolina offense, and Cam Newton, have been just as bad. Backing the Saints on the road has been scary over the past few years, but I prefer that much more than Carolina laying close to a touchdown at home.

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One important thing to note here is that Carolina was forced to change all play calls, audibles, and any visual tells, when they faced former defensive coordinator Sean McDermott, last week. They’ll now be tasked with developing a whole new system as they’ll face former linebacker, A.J. Klein. Klein was with the Panthers for four years, and knows this team, in and out. While it doesn’t seem like a big factor, I think it will be here. Learning three different sets of play calls, hand signals, and audibles will be no easy task for an already struggling offense.

Kirk Cousins records over 30 DraftKings points

It hasn’t been a fun start to the year for Kirk Cousins’ owners. The passing offense does not look good, but will get the benefit of facing, in my estimation, an awful Oakland defense. Oakland has been able to mask their defensive woes by both, playing inferior opponents, and jumping out to big leads.

The best part of this defense is Derek Carr. When Carr leads the offense out to quick 14 point leads, it takes a ton of pressure off of an exploitable defense. The Redskins return home in a huge game, that figures to be close. While Gruden has tried to turn the offense into a more balanced one, he may be forced to let if fly with Cousins, given the pace of the Oakland’s offense.

Next: FanDuel Week 3 NFL Picks and Pivots

Best of luck in your NFL DFS contests and stay tuned to Fantasy CPR for all your Fantasy Football and DFS news and analysis leading up to Week 3!