Fantasy Baseball 2018: It’s Gary Sanchez and everyone else at catcher
By Bill Pivetz
The fantasy baseball pool of viable catchers isn’t as deep as it once was. You may have to jump on Gary Sanchez early if you want the only elite option.
For years, I was in the camp of waiting until you draft a catcher. I didn’t feel the difference between drafting one in the early rounds and in Round 12 was that great in fantasy baseball. However, with the regression that took over the position this season, I think it’s more important now than ever to draft a top option. That only option, though, looks to be Gary Sanchez.
Sanchez is clearly ranked as the top catcher this season. He has a 1.35 point lead over the No. 2 catcher on the Player Rater for the year. He is the No. 55 batter overall. Yet, Sanchez has played just 118 games this season. If he can play in at least 145, which is expected but you cannot predict injuries, he should jump into the top 40 overall.
Sanchez has 33 home runs, 89 RBI, 79 runs and a .283 average. He does need to work on his plate discipline, 115 strikeouts, 39 walks and a .348 on-base percentage.
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He was the No. 2 catcher drafted in ESPN leagues this season. Buster Posey was drafted three rounds ahead of Sanchez, but is the No. 82 batter on the Rater. He is the No. 2 catcher, which makes my point that the catcher pool is shrinking. Just look at the following comparison.
Buster Posey or Wellington Castillo
There was a slight disparity between the 2016 stats of the No. 1 (Posey) and No. 15 (Castillo) catchers drafted this season in ESPN leagues, but nothing worth a 19-round difference.
In 146 games, Posey had 14 home runs, 80 RBI, 82 runs scored and a .288 average.
Castillo hit 14 home runs, 68 RBI, 41 runs scored and a .264 average in just 113 games.
While the games played obviously affected the counting stats, Castillo hit the same number of home runs. He fell just 12 RBI short of tying Posey and hit just a few points lower in average. I don’t see why Castillo fell as far as he did or Posey was as high as he was. The latter can apply to Sanchez too, but that’s another story.
This season, those owners that invested a fifth-round pick on Posey were left a little disappointed. He has played in 136 games and hit 12 home runs, 64 RBI and .315. He also scored 58 runs. But again, RBI and runs are based on his teammate’s ability to get on base and drive him home. The San Francisco Giants were awful at both of those things this year.
Castillo, now with Baltimore, played in 94 games. He hit 20 home runs, 53 RBI and .285 average. He scored 44 runs as well. More home runs, 11 fewer RBI and 30 points less in average. I think I would have been able to make up the difference by changing my fifth-round pick instead of trying to find a diamond in the rough later.
Instead of Posey, owners could have selected Nelson Cruz, Jose Abreu or Christian Yelich to help offset the negatives of Castillo.
But, back to 2018. Unless the Giants do something drastic, I don’t think Posey’s runs and RBI will increase greatly. He has also seen a drop in power over the last four seasons, pushing him down in the rankings even more. The No. 3 drafted catcher Jonathan Lucroy hit just six home runs after hitting 24 last year. Who knows where he ends up in 2018 and if he can rebound.
There are a few catchers that are making the jump into the top five but none of them will be worth drafting before Round 5. Sal Perez has power, J.T. Realmuto has 10 HR/10 SB potential, and we recently brought up the breakout potential of Mike Zunino.
Next: Can we show Justin Bour some love?
Though, Sanchez has the lineup upside, the benefit of Yankee Stadium and youth (turns 25 in December), things the other catchers don’t have. I wouldn’t do it but I don’t blame owners if they draft Sanchez in the third round. Suring up a shallow position with Sanchez and not having to worry about it later will create an easier draft.